As the impacts of climate change worsen, global leadership on climate action has declined, leaving an international leadership vacuum that major powers have not stepped up to fill. The annual Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has also succumbed to polarization. Together, this leadership vacuum and growing polarization have weakened trust in the multilateral climate system just as the UN Environment Programme has confirmed that global warming exceeding 1.5°C is now unavoidable.
This issue brief examines the status of the UNFCCC negotiations and what to expect at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye. It also considers the state of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the risks posed by its impasse, as well as how the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, held in Santa Marta, Colombia, and its successor can catalyze action outside the official process.
The brief argues that while outside initiatives can advance climate action and put pressure on the multilateral system to act faster, it remains crucial to protect the UNFCCC and its COP as the only universal space for climate action. Outside and parallel processes must feed into and connect with it. This fragile state of the system could be an opportunity for ambitious voices to seize the moment and provide real leadership both inside and outside the process.
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