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Georgien steht vor einem möglichen Wendepunkt: Gewinnt die vereinigte Opposition die Parlamentswahlen am Samstag, könnten bereits bis Sommer 2025 EU-Beitrittsgespräche beginnen, erklärte Präsidentin Salome Surabischwili.

Als die EU-Kommission im November empfahl, Georgien zum Beitrittskandidaten zu machen, feierten tausende Georgier in Tbilisi mit der Europahymne. Ein Jahr später – vor den Parlamentswahlen am Samstag – scheint die EU-Mitgliedschaft in weiter Ferne.

Am Samstag (26. Oktober) finden in Georgien Parlamentswahlen statt. Die Abstimmung wird weithin als Test dafür angesehen, ob das Land weiterhin eine pro-westliche Ausrichtung verfolgt oder zunehmend in den Einflussbereich Russlands gerät.

A selection of the week's best photos from across the African continent and beyond.

A Gázai övezetben kialakult feszültségek közepette újabb fordulatot vett az orosz-palesztin kapcsolat. A Hamász politikai irodájának helyettes vezetője, Musa Abu Marzouk Moszkvában járt, ahol tárgyalt a két ország közötti együttműködés lehetőségeiről. A látogatás középpontjában a Gázai övezetben fogva tartott két orosz állampolgár sorsa állt.

Abu Marzouk kijelentette, hogy a Hamász prioritásként kezeli a túszok szabadon engedését, de csak egy Izraellel kötött csereüzlet részeként. Az orosz külügyminisztérium is megerősítette, hogy a tárgyalások során kiemelt figyelmet fordítottak az orosz állampolgárok mielőbbi szabadon bocsátására.

A látogatás azonban nemcsak a túszdrámáról szólt. Abu Marzouk felhívta Oroszország figyelmét a Gázai övezetben kialakult humanitárius válságra, és kért humanitárius segítséget, valamint támogatást az ENSZ Biztonsági Tanácsában. A Hamász vezetője emellett arra kérte Moszkvát, hogy gyakoroljon nyomást a Palesztinai Felszabadítási Szervezetre (PLO) az egységkormány kialakítása érdekében.

Az orosz-palesztin kapcsolatok új fejezete azonban számos kérdést vet fel. Egyrészt, az oroszok nyíltan támogatják a Hamászt, amelyet számos ország terrorszervezetnek minősít. Másrészt, a túszdráma és a humanitárius válság hátterében álló konfliktusnak nincs egyszerű megoldása. Izrael és a Hamász között hosszú ideje tartó ellenségeskedés folyik, és a felek között nincs bizalom.

Az orosz-palesztin együttműködésnek számos következménye lehet a térségre nézve. Egyrészt, erősítheti Oroszország befolyását a Közel-Keleten, másrészt újabb feszültségeket szülhet Izrael és a palesztinok között. A helyzet tovább bonyolódik azzal, hogy az Egyesült Államok és a nyugati szövetségesek elítélik az orosz-palesztin együttműködést.

A Gázai övezetben kialakult helyzet egyre instabilabbá válik, és a térség jövője bizonytalan. Az orosz-palesztin kapcsolatok alakulása kulcsfontosságú szerepet játszhat a konfliktus rendezésében, vagy annak eszkalációjában.

The post Moszkva és a Hamász: Túszok, fegyverszünet és az orosz érdekek a Közel-Keleten appeared first on Biztonságpiac.

Aleksandar Vučić ne s'est pas rendu au Sommet des Brics à Kazan, mais il avait envoyé quatre représentants dont le ministre de la Défense, Bratislav Gašić. Une manière de signifier que Belgrade continue d'entretenir des liens privilégiés avec Moscou, mais que ses intérêts se trouveraient plutôt à Bruxelles ?

- Le fil de l'Info / Relations internationales, Poutine et les Balkans, Ukraine, Serbie, Radio Slobodna Evropa, Questions européennes

Americas Hydronalix won a $42 million contract for assets and technical support services of specialized technology supporting the Littoral Explosive Ordnance Neutralization program of record, a component of Force Design 2030, which aims to improve integrated warfighting capabilities using unmanned vehicles. The period of performance of the base award is October 24, 2024, through October 23, 2029. No funds will be obligated at the time of award. This contract was awarded as a sole-source acquisition pursuant to 15 US Code 638(r)(4). Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, San Diego, California, is the contracting activity. The US military carried out a significant airfield seizure exercise on the island of Palau as part of the Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center 25-01. The exercise, which took place from Oct. 10–11, involved the airfield seizure of Roman Tmetuchl International Airport in Palau. Phase I saw the 75th Rangers Regiment securing the airfield, a crucial first step in establishing a strategic foothold. Phase II brought the deployment of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) operated by the 17th Field Artillery Brigade. Middle East & Africa Italian firm Fincantieri has signed a memorandum of understanding with Qatari Barzan Holdings to jointly develop a short-range anti-drone radar. Dubbed […]

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IPI in partnership with Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA, cohosted a policy forum on “National Action Plans for National Challenges: Addressing Environmental Crises through the WPS Agenda” on October 24th.

The women, peace, and security (WPS) agenda has recently expanded to include issues outside of “traditional conflict,” such as climate change and environmental disasters. As the agenda has evolved, this expansion has become a key part of contextualizing and applying WPS principles and priorities in different countries. However, despite recognizing that preparing for disasters and climate emergencies are gendered processes, few national action plans (NAPs) on WPS incorporate specific language about disasters. Incorporating disaster preparedness and climate considerations into NAPs is an important way to consider peace through a feminist viewpoint and define it as more than just the absence of violent conflict. NAPs should be tailored to a specific country’s context and integrating disaster risk reduction (DRR) or climate dynamics more broadly can be a powerful way to make an NAP relevant to a country’s internal dynamics. Panelists at the event explored how the WPS agenda has been expanded to include climate and environmental concerns and how different member states contextualize these issues within their NAPs.

Welcoming Remarks:
Adam Lupel, Vice President and COO, International Peace Institute

Opening Remarks:
Shanti Shoji, Director of Programs, Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA
Irene Fellin, Special Representative for Women, Peace and Security, NATO 

Speakers:
Sho Ono, Minister, Human Rights and Humanitarian Affairs, Permanent Mission of Japan to the UN
Katrina Fotovat, Principal Deputy Director, Office of Global Women’s Issues, US Department of State
Japhet Eichel, Associate Expert, Climate, Peace and Security, UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs
Maryruth Belsey-Priebe, Co-Founder, aXXelerate
Harriette Williams Bright, WPS Humanitarian Action Compact Lead, UN Women

Interventions from the floor:
Miwako Kitamura, Researcher (specially appointed), International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University
Dalal El Taher, Board Member at Syria Civil Defence, The White Helmets (Virtual)

Moderator:
Phoebe Donnelly, Senior Fellow and Head of Women, Peace and Security, International Peace Institute

The post National Action Plans for National Challenges: Addressing Environmental Crises through the WPS Agenda appeared first on International Peace Institute.

By Melek Zahine
PARIS, Oct 24 2024 (IPS)

Nobody should be fooled by President Biden’s recent warning to Israel that the U.S. may level consequences if it doesn’t do more to surge humanitarian aid into Gaza within the next 30 days. Biden’s warning, along with Anthony Blinken’s 11th trip to Israel and the region to try and revive ceasefire talks, is nothing more than cynical double talk designed to appease domestic audiences and buy time for Israel to deepen its genocidal aims against the Palestinian people and brutally punish those who support their liberation.

Melek Zahine

Israel knows that Washington’s warnings aren’t serious. Despite independently documented evidence of Israel’s genocidal actions and war crimes in Gaza, the West Bank and now Lebonon, billions of dollars in offensive arms transfer, intelligence and military support from the United States continue unabated. Israel also knows that the U.S. government has consistently operated in their favor in breach of domestic U.S. laws not only for the past year but for decades. U.S. National Security Memorandum 20 and the Leahy Laws both stipulate that the United States cannot provide any form of assistance, especially military aid, to a country that is restricting the delivery of U.S.-funded humanitarian assistance.

It’s no surprise that Israel’s immediate response to Biden’s warning and Blinken’s shuttle diplomacy this week has been to escalate the humanitarian blockade and military offensive on Gaza’s already besieged civilian population, especially in famine-stricken Northern Gaza, where tens of thousands of unarmed and starved men, women and children are now being trapped, corralled, and slaughtered like animals by Israeli political elites who have an endless supply of lethal U.S.- weapons and Biden’s iron-clad loyalty on their side.

As Israel prevents humanitarian aid from reaching beleaguered and displaced Palestinian civilians throughout the Gaza Strip, hospitals are now faced with dwindling medical supplies amidst the growing numbers of injured and ill. Healthcare providers and first responders, who themselves are struggling to survive, now have little more than their compassion to offer the sick and the dying. Unless President Biden uses his singularly unique leverage to take decisive, immediate action, tens of thousands more Palestinians will be killed in the next thirty days, 75% of which will be women and children.

As a U.S. citizen who has worked in the field of humanitarian assistance for more than 30 years, I have both witnessed and paid keen attention to the devastating human toll on civilian lives that my government has consistently chosen to unleash since 9/11 in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Libya, Yemen and now Gaza and Lebanon. Rather than work to de-escalate during times of crisis through earnest, mature diplomacy, the United States, irrespective of which political party is in power, has all too often chosen to pursue extreme military force as the cornerstone of its foreign policy, benefitting narrow special interest groups in Washington at the expense of innocent populations abroad, U.S. soldiers and average U.S. taxpayers at home.

During my career, I’ve also had the privilege of witnessing those rare moments when the United States has chosen to mitigate harm by using its powerful foreign policy tools to de-escalate conflicts and secure humanitarian spaces. In 1991, in Northern Iraq, the U.S. led a multi-nation coalition of NATO and U.N. partners to deliver emergency aid and protection to Iraqi Kurdish refugees fleeing gas attacks by Saddam Hussein. Also, in the 90s, the United States helped deliver C5 Galaxy loads of lifesaving emergency supplies to besieged civilians in Sarajevo and worked with NATO and U.N. partners to enforce a no-fly zone over the former Yugoslavia. This decision helped lessen the level of violence between the various warring sides and protect civilians and U.N. personnel. During earthquakes, such as the ones that hit Turkiye in 1999 and 2023, the United States sent search and rescue teams, often being the first to reach people trapped under tons of concrete and metal with specialized equipment and dogs. Biden’s decision to leave Palestinian civilians and civil defense workers to desperately try and rescue people under destroyed homes and shelters caused by U.S. bombs, with nothing but their bare hands says everything one needs to know about the emptiness of his latest warnings, red lines, and shuttle diplomacy. Biden’s foreign policy is nothing but a cruel and unusual punishment that the U.S. Constitution’s 8th Amendment warns Americans against inflicting on others.

If President Biden were actually serious about addressing the humanitarian catastrophe facing Palestinians and now the Lebanese, he wouldn’t need to wait 30 days. All he would need to do is immediately emulate past American administrations and execute his executive powers, enforce an immediate no-fly zone over Gaza and Lebanon, and authorize an immediate arms embargo on Israel. This combined approach would immediately improve conditions for a lasting cease-fire, unimpeded humanitarian access and prevent a further escalation of regional tensions. Rather than use his remaining days in office to buy time for Israel to cause more human suffering, President Biden must buy time for those who won’t live to see another day without a more humane U.S. foreign policy intervention. Imagine being the most powerful leader in the world and choosing anything less.

The author is a humanitarian affairs and disaster response specialist.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Anne Olhoff, Chief Climate Advisor at UNEP

By Umar Manzoor Shah
COPENHAGEN & SRINAGAR , Oct 24 2024 (IPS)

Anne Olhoff, Chief Climate Advisor at UNEP, underlined the urgent need for accelerated climate action ahead of COP29 in an exclusive interview with IPS. “The next six years are crucial—without accelerated action, we will miss the chance to limit warming to 1.5°C,” she warned.

Olhoff stressed that while ambition is essential, “What we need most is immediate action.”

Olhoff also termed the role of the Emissions Gap Report as a bridge between science and policy, advocating for financial and technical support to ensure a just transition for developing countries.

As Chief Climate Advisor and as part of the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre management, Olhoff provides climate science-policy advice and supports climate strategy development and implementation in the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre and UNEP.

Olhoff has worked with UNEP throughout her career and has more than 25 years’ experience in international science-policy advice, technical assistance and research on climate change mitigation and adaptation in the context of sustainable development.

Since 2012, Olhoff has led the annual UNEP flagship report on climate change mitigation—the Emissions Gap Report—guiding and coordinating the work of more than 70 scientists from at least 35 institutions across more than 25 countries in addition to being the chief scientific editor of the report.

On the eve of the publication of the 2024 emissions report entitled ‘No more hot air … please’ Olhoff gave an exclusive interview to IPS.

Here are excerpts from the interview.

Inter Press Service (IPS): What do you expect from COP29? How do you think it will help on the ground?

Anne Olhoff: That’s a tricky question. The Emissions Gap Report doesn’t dive deeply into COP29 specifically, but we aim to guide discussions during COP29 and the preparation for the next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which countries will submit before COP30. The report highlights where we stand now and what needs to happen in the short term and with the next NDCs. Hopefully, this will provide useful insights for the discussions in Baku as well.

IPS: How do you see the role of science-policy advice in climate action, especially with the rise of net-zero targets?

Olhoff: That’s an excellent question. Through the Emissions Gap Report, we aim to contribute to this effort. Our goal is to provide science-based yet timely and relevant information for international discussions. Unlike IPCC reports, which are published every six years, the Emissions Gap Report offers an annual, tailored update.

What’s reassuring is that the report has been well received. Surveys show that 75-83 percent of national delegations use it during climate negotiations or in their submissions to the UNFCCC. This suggests we are filling a gap by offering valuable information between IPCC cycles.

IPS: After leading the Emissions Gap Report for several years, what are your key takeaways, and how have its findings influenced global strategies?

Olhoff: It’s hard to pinpoint specific changes directly resulting from the report, but it has certainly shed light on critical issues—both on where we’re headed and where we need to be. Importantly, this year’s report highlights solutions across all sectors, focusing on ways to accelerate emission reductions across the economy.

IPS: From your experience with both adaptation and mitigation, which areas need immediate attention, and where do you see the biggest gaps?

Olhoff: There’s a lot of potential for synergies between adaptation, mitigation, and development goals. Agriculture and forestry offer some of the greatest opportunities, but energy systems are equally critical. Access to electricity for cooling, for instance, is essential to building climate resilience.

It’s important to note that mitigation must come first. If emissions aren’t reduced, no amount of adaptation will prevent severe impacts and losses. Reducing emissions minimizes the future burden on adaptation efforts.

IPS: How has UNEP’s approach to climate change evolved over the years, and what recent developments excite you the most?

Olhoff: This is the 15th edition of the report, which we’ve been producing since 2010. Back then, temperature projections based on existing policies were about half a degree higher than they are now. This shows that we’ve made some progress, although it’s not enough.

One exciting development is the advancement of renewable energy, especially in terms of cost reductions and deployment. However, we need to ensure these breakthroughs benefit all countries, not just a select few. There’s a strong need to improve investment flows to developing economies, especially outside China.

IPS: Coordinating with scientists from over 25 countries must be challenging. How do you maintain alignment and quality control?

Olhoff: We follow a process similar to the IPCC. We have author teams, a steering committee involving IPCC representatives and UNFCCC experts, and rigorous external reviews.

Additionally, we send draft reports to countries mentioned in the report to allow for feedback and ensure we aren’t missing important perspectives. It’s a tightly managed process to maintain high scientific standards.

IPS: What trends or innovations do you think will play a pivotal role in climate transparency and reporting in the coming decade?

Olhoff: One major development will be the biennial transparency reports, which countries will submit by the end of this year. These reports will help track progress more accurately and offer opportunities to learn from each other’s experiences.

While we have many of the technologies needed to achieve steep reductions, investing in research and development for new mitigation options will be essential moving forward. Improved transparency will also help ensure accountability.

IPS: With your experience in advisory roles, how important is interdisciplinary collaboration in shaping climate policies, particularly at the intersection of health, disaster management, and climate resilience?

Olhoff: It’s absolutely critical. Often, experts focus on isolated components—like the energy system—without considering how everything connects. Interdisciplinary approaches help us understand the complex relationships and address flaws in narrower frameworks. This has been a key focus in my work.

IPS: How do you manage the tension between political agendas and scientific evidence when advising on climate strategies?

Olhoff: We stick to scientific principles. Of course, we consider political sensitivities, but we aim to provide unbiased and credible analysis. Engaging with authors from around the world and including extensive peer reviews helps ensure we capture different perspectives.

When we encounter differences of opinion, we stay grounded in science to maintain credibility. The goal is to provide sound, defensible analysis.

IPS: Transitioning away from fossil fuels is challenging, especially for countries with fossil reserves. How can a just transition happen for developing countries without jeopardizing their economies?

Olhoff: That’s a tough question, but an important one. Renewable energy is already cost-competitive in many parts of the world. However, countries need financial and technical support to transition away from fossil fuels.

For countries with large untapped fossil fuel reserves, compensation mechanisms may be necessary to encourage them not to exploit these resources. The next round of NDCs offers an opportunity for these countries to present investment-ready plans that outline what support they need to pursue ambitious climate goals.

IPS: Do you see COP29 as a now-or-never opportunity for climate action?

Olhoff: I wouldn’t say COP29 alone is the deciding moment, but the next six years are crucial. If we continue on the current path, we will miss the chance to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2030.

The real focus should be on accelerating country-level actions. While increased ambition in the next NDCs is essential, it won’t mean much without immediate action. As the Emissions Gap Report emphasizes, every delay increases the risks of costly and irreversible impacts.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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• UNEP’s 2024 Emissions Gap Report Warns: ‘No More Hot Air, Please’

Ratcliffe-on-Soar Power Station from an aeroplane. Credit: Matt Buck/Climate Visuals

By Umar Manzoor Shah
COPENHAGEN, Oct 24 2024 (IPS)

The United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2024 delivered a stark reminder that the world is still far from meeting its climate commitments.

The report, released today, October 24, highlights the widening gap between climate rhetoric and reality as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reach 57.1 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO₂) in 2023—a record high that undermines the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

Addressing the press conference while releasing the report, titled “No More Hot Air …please,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres issued a warning to the world. With current greenhouse gas emissions at record highs, Guterres said that humanity is “teetering on a planetary tightrope,” with catastrophic consequences looming unless countries act decisively to close the emissions gap.

 

The cover of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2024 ‘No more hot air… please.’ Credit: UNEP

“Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster—with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” Guterres said during a video address from the report’s launch event in Nairobi.

According to the Emissions Gap Report 2024, global greenhouse gas emissions rose 1.3 percent in 2023 to their highest levels in history. At the current pace, the world is on track for a 3.1°C temperature rise by the end of the century—well above the limits set by the Paris Agreement.

Guterres emphasized that limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains technically feasible, but only if emissions fall by 9 percent annually until 2030. Without swift intervention, the UN chief warned of more frequent and extreme weather events.

“Record emissions mean record sea temperatures, supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinderboxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods,” he said.

Guterres termed the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, as a pivotal moment for global climate policy. The Secretary-General outlined two major areas where urgent progress is essential. One, he said, is National Climate Action Plans (NDCs).

“COP29 starts the clock for countries to deliver new national climate action plans—NDCs—by next year,” Guterres said.
Governments are expected to align these plans with the 1.5°C target by driving down emissions across all sectors and phasing out fossil fuels swiftly and equitably.

Guterres urged countries to commit to reversing deforestation and accelerating the deployment of renewable energy. Another area, according to the Secretary General, that merits immediate concern is climate finance.

Guterres said that the success of the clean energy transition depends heavily on financial support for developing countries, which are already struggling with climate-induced disasters.

“COP29 must agree to a new finance goal that unlocks the trillions of dollars they need and provides confidence it will be delivered,” he said.

The Secretary-General urged significant increases in concessional public financing, along with cutting-edge techniques like levies on fossil fuel extraction. He also urged reforms in multilateral development banks to enhance their role in climate financing.

The Secretary-General emphasized that climate action is not just a matter of environmental responsibility but also of economic foresight. He stressed that the cost of inaction far exceeds the cost of action.

As the largest emitters, G20 nations, responsible for 80 percent of global emissions, must take the lead in closing the emissions gap. Guterres challenged the wealthiest countries to act first. “I urge first-movers to come forward. We need leadership now more than ever,” he said.

Guterres echoed the UNEP report’s urgent message that “people and the planet cannot afford more hot air.” The time for empty promises has passed, and concrete steps are required to meet the climate goals. “Today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: we’re playing with fire, but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time,” he said.

The latest Emissions Gap Report 2024 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has sounded a dire alarm on the disconnect between political commitments and the reality of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

In stark language, the report urges governments to close the widening gap between rhetoric and action.

“The transformation to net-zero economies must happen, and the sooner this global transformation begins, the better. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved, and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot,” reads the report.

UNEP warned that the current trajectory leaves the world on a path toward 2.6°C warming this century, far beyond the Paris Agreement targets. The report calls for a “quantum leap” in ambition and urgent action from governments, particularly ahead of the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in early 2025.

Here are some highlights:

G20 Nations Hold the Key to Global Emission Reductions

The report has highlighted that G20 countries, responsible for 77 percent of global emissions, must take the lead in closing the emissions gap. While these countries have set net-zero goals, their current policies fall short of aligning with the necessary emission reductions. Without significant improvements, the G20 is projected to miss its NDC targets for 2030 by at least 1 GtCO₂e.

Required Cuts: 42 percent Reduction by 2030 for 1.5°C Target

To achieve the 1.5°C pathway, global emissions must decrease by 42 percent by 2030 compared to 2019 levels—equivalent to an annual reduction of 7.5 percent. The report highlights the severe consequences of delayed action, warning that any further postponement would necessitate doubling the rate of emissions cuts after 2030.

Sectoral Solutions: Renewables and Reforestation Offer Hope

The report has identified solar and wind energy as key contributors to bridging the emissions gap. Together, these technologies could deliver 27 percent of the total emission reduction potential by 2030. Forest-related measures, including reforestation and reducing deforestation, offer another 20% potential. However, achieving these targets requires massive increases in investment—at least six times the current levels—and rapid deployment of policies across sectors.

NDCs and Climate Finance: Critical Areas for Focus

It has also stressed the importance of the upcoming NDC submissions.  According to the report, these commitments, due before February 2025, must reflect higher ambitions, concrete plans, and robust financial backing to make meaningful progress toward net-zero emissions. Developing countries, in particular, require international support and reformed financial systems to meet their climate goals.

Urgency and Cooperation are Paramount

UNEP has underlined the need for a whole-of-government approach and stronger public-private partnerships to accelerate progress. “We are running out of time,” the report warns. “The transformation to net-zero economies is inevitable, and the sooner we act, the more lives, ecosystems, and economies we can save.”

The report has identified the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, as a crucial time for nations to align their policies with 1.5°C pathways. Without immediate, ambitious actions, UNEP cautions that 2°C—once the backup target—could soon become unreachable.

“With the clock ticking down to 2030 and 2035, the message is unequivocal: ambition without action is meaningless. Governments must move from pledges to policies and ensure that commitments are backed by robust implementation plans,” says the report.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Excerpt:

"We’re playing with fire, but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time," says UN Secretary General António Guterres

The two White House hopefuls debated on ABC television on September 10, 2024, but their mentions of Latin America were mainly dedicated to the issue of migration. Credit: Michael Le Brecht II / ABC

By Humberto Márquez
CARACAS, Oct 24 2024 (IPS)

Migration, trade, the defence of democracy, the confrontation with China and the collapse of multilateralism are issues that shed more doubts than certainties on Latin America’s expectations of the imminent presidential elections in the United States.

Interest and tension have grown after dozens of polls and bookmakers have shown similar chances of victory for Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, particularly in a few decisive states.“After Washington's retreat from the wars it got into in the Middle East, there is resistance among people to getting involved in the world's problems, which weakens the liberal democratic order”: Vilma Petrash.

Latin America has been treated by many US administrations as its ‘backyard’, but it is now commonplace that Washington’s international priority lies far from the region.

Nevertheless, “we should not underestimate the ways in which Democrats and Republicans are different”, warned Tullo Vigevani, former professor of international relations at Brazil’s Paulista State University.

“For example, their proposals and policies are very different on the environment, in general and in relation to Latin America; on renewable energy and biofuels – particularly in the case of Brazil – and regarding human rights and some authoritarian trends in the region”, Vigevani told IPS from Sao Paulo.

Even if some governments are more sympathetic to Harris or Trump, Vigevani believes that both Washington and the region’s capitals will seek understandings and a relationship as normal as possible, after the 5 November election.

Migrants in the Mexican border city of Tijuana approach the barrier that closes access to the United States. Credit: Alejandro Cartagena / IOM

Migration rules

Among the campaign issues, such as economy and employment, taxes, health, wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and the opposing personalities of both candidates, migration stands out, with Latin American countries being the main expellers of migrants to the United States.

“It is a sensitive issue for Americans, whether they are Democrats, Republicans or independents. It affects the immigrant population, the millions of refugees, and therefore the countries of Latin America,” Vilma Petrash, a Venezuelan professor of political science and international relations at Miami Dade College, told IPS.

Of the 336 million people living in the United States, 46.2 million were of foreign origin in 2022, according to the non-governmental Pew Research Center; 49% are already U.S. citizens, 24% are legal permanent residents, and the rest, more than 11 million people, are unauthorised immigrants, eight million of whom are from Latin American and Caribbean countries.

In fact, the United States is currently home to 65 million ‘Hispanics’, as Latin Americans are called in the country, according to different reports, and they have become a desired prize for the two candidates.

Trump, who pushed for the construction of a wall on the southern border during his presidency (2017-2021), now offers massive deportations of illegals – one million immediately, according to his vice-presidential candidate, James Vance -, and to contain irregular border immigration even by using the military.

They are “the enemy within”, Trump has said, and has stigmatised migrants: he said that criminals from Venezuela have left their country for the United States, “leaving Caracas as one of the safest cities in the world”, or that Haitians “are eating the pets” in the northern industrial state of Ohio.

Harris, who is the current vice-president and lead programmes with which president Joe Biden also tried to address causes of migration, such as poverty in Central America, has said that the immigration system “needs reform”, without going into details.

Whichever side wins, the controls will predictably increase, and Washington’s announcement that it will not renew in 2025 the temporary stay permits (parole), which allow Venezuelans, Haitians, Cubans and Nicaraguans to enter and remain in the United States for two years, was a warning sign.

The US aircraft carrier USS Nimitz sails through the Arabian Gulf. Credit: US Army

The United States isolates itself

The migration issue shows the United States’ willingness to isolate itself, to withdraw, instead of taking a proactive approach, as a great global power, to solving problems in the region and the world.

According to Petrash, “after Washington’s retreat from the wars it got into in the Middle East, there is resistance among people to getting involved in the world’s problems, which weakens the liberal democratic order. Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ policies are a case in point”.

The expert said from Miami, in the southeastern state of Florida, that there is also a lack of consensus over foreign policy, and in general over governance, to the point that a part of the population still, countering evidence, supports the version that it was Trump and not Biden who won the election four years ago.

While Biden has consistently supported Ukraine in the war against Russia, and Israel’s current military offensive in the Middle East, his political action in favour of democracy in Latin America has been weaker, and Harris would continue this, although with revisions, according to Petrash.

This is despite the certainty that, for example, among the alternatives for containing regional migration, in which the exodus of more than seven million Venezuelans in the last decade stands out, is to promote a solution to the democratic crisis in that country.

As a result of its policies and omissions, its polarised political confrontation and doubts about its electoral system, and the rise of isolationism, the United States “would have to regain the moral stature necessary to help stem democratic backsliding in the region”, says Petrash.

These setbacks are expressed in left-wing governments with authoritarian tendencies, such as those in Nicaragua and Venezuela, but also in sectors that have backed right-wing presidencies such as those of Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022) in Brazil and the current administrations of Javier Milei in Argentina and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador.

Bolsonaro, Milei and Bukele have openly identified with Trump, whose sector harbours a far-right conservative current. For Petrash, this could favour a rapprochement with Latin American countries where there is a democratic backlash.

Unloading wind turbines from China at the port of Bahía Blanca, Argentina. It shows China’s penetration into the renewable energy sector in the Southern Cone, where it is already a major trading partner. Credit: Port of Bahía Blanca

China moves forward

Petrash points out that the United States’s international retreat was acute in Latin America, “its natural strategic zone”, after the failure of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) initiative in 2005. “It abandoned its vision of free trade in the region and let China move forward with its enclaves,” she said.

China, “an economic, political and ideological rival, has sold itself as successful authoritarianism, and has taken advantage of Washington’s absences in Latin America to advance its quiet, pragmatic diplomacy,” says Petrash.

Trade between China and Latin America reached US$480 billion in 2023 after increasing 35-fold in 2000-2022, while the region’s total trade with the world increased four-fold, according to the  Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). Nevertheless, trade with the Asian giant is still far from the region’s trade with the United States, which in the same year amounted to US$1.14 trillion.

Relations between Latin America and China “have grown and even strengthened in strategic areas such as new materials for energy production, lithium batteries -South America has large reserves of the mineral-, or artificial intelligence”, Vigevani states.

Certification of Brazilian meat for export. Brazil is the largest exporter of beef and poultry, and very active in the World Trade Organization. Credit: Abrafrigo

Brazil and Mexico

Meanwhile, Brazil is concerned about Washington’s disdain – which will be evident if Trump wins – for multilateral institutions, starting with the United Nations and the proposed renewal of its Security Council in order to make it effective.

For Vigevani, this distancing from multilateralism is illustrated by the blockade, which Washington has maintained since 2020, on the appointment of new members to the dispute settlement body of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), initiated by Trump and continued by Biden.

“Even if relations with Brazil and Latin America in general look normal, this United States refusal raises doubts for the future, because it is saying it is not interested in multilateral organisations,” said Vigevani.

In the case of a Trump victory, the Brazilian professor points out, there are also unanswered questions about what his war and peace policies will be.

An example is the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Trump has said that “ending this war quickly is in the best interest of the United States” and that he can achieve “a peace agreement in one day”, without offering further details, said Vigevani.

“It is important because, despite the war, Brazil has a strong relationship with Russia, and a very active participation in the Brics group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa),” Vigevani recalled.

According to Petrash, with Trump’s international policy, “the great power can be the bull in the china shop, and even more, the bull isolating itself in the china shop”.

At the other end of the region is Mexico, a partner of Canada and the United States in the trade agreement known as USMCA, which replaced in 2020 the North American Free Trade Agreement that has existed since 1994.

Along with maintaining the 3150-kilometre southern border of the United States, a destination for hundreds of thousands of migrants who cross the region each year, Mexico faces the campaign promise from both Harris and Trump that they intend to revise the USMCA as soon as they reach the White House.

Trump is expected to introduce tariffs and protectionist barriers, for example on Mexican production involving Chinese parts or technologies, and Harris is expected to increase environmental and labour requirements that favour industries with United States labour.

Whichever side wins, “with the new American policy of bringing companies back to the United States or to its partners in the USMCA, possibly the biggest issue now is the end of globalisation and the return to a developmentalist nationalism”, summarised Vigevani.

A delegation of Parliament’s Employment and Social Affairs committee will visit Poland on 28 and 29 October.
Committee on Employment and Social Affairs

Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

A delegation of Parliament’s Employment and Social Affairs committee will visit Poland on 28 and 29 October.
Committee on Employment and Social Affairs

Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

A delegation of Parliament’s Employment and Social Affairs committee will visit Poland on 28 and 29 October.
Committee on Employment and Social Affairs

Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

A delegation of Parliament’s Employment and Social Affairs committee will visit Poland on 28 and 29 October.
Committee on Employment and Social Affairs

Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

Former Arsenal, Man City and Real Madrid striker Emmanuel Adebayor aims to help the next generation in Togo after hanging up his boots.

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With the aim to empower aspiring women in cybersecurity, the OSCE Presence in Albania, in partnership with the National Cybersecurity Authority, organized a workshop featuring testimonies and panel discussions from successful women leaders in the field, on 24 October 2024.

The event provided a platform for these motivational women to share their personal journeys, discussing the challenges they faced and the opportunities available in the cybersecurity landscape.

"We believe that cybersecurity represents not only a challenge for which we should all be prepared, but also a big opportunity to empower youth to become active part of this important sector", said Brunilda Halili, National Community Safety Officer of the Presence.

The workshop culminated in a hands-on cyber drill designed specifically for women students, aimed at enhancing their technical skills and confidence. Thirty-eight participants engaged in practical exercises that equipped them with essential capabilities for a future in cybersecurity.

In the end of the interactive cyber drill, a 3rd year student of Information Technology at the Polytechnic University of Tirana, Xhorxhia Prenga, said: "Until today, I've been undecided about my future in the IT field. Today I decided that I want to continue my Master studies in cybersecurity, because now I understand the impact of this field in the society, and the many possibilities I will have to further advance my professional career in this dynamic field".

The event was part of the Presence’s project "Supporting national authorities and communities to effectively prevent and address safety and security issues – Phase II".

579280 Edil Baisalov, Deputy Chairperson of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic speaks in front of 500 participants of the Green Economic Forum 2024. Chyngyz Zhanybekov Aida Almazbekova

Bishkek, 23 October 2024 – Over 500 participants from Central Asia gathered at the Green Economic Forum 2024 to set priorities for advancing sustainable development across the region. The event brought together government officials, international experts, and business leaders to explore strategies for green economic growth, environmental sustainability, and regional co-operation.

Key discussions focused on renewable energy, eco-friendly construction, waste management, and green financing. The forum provided a platform for knowledge sharing and collaboration, helping governments and businesses identify joint actions for green projects, ahead of the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference (COP-29) in Baku.

In his opening remarks, Edil Baisalov, Deputy Chairperson of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic, emphasized the forum’s importance in linking economic growth with environmental protection. “The green economy is not just a concept, it is a solution for achieving a balanced, long-term development that safeguards our natural resources,” noted Baisalov.

Ambassador Alexey Rogov, Head of the OSCE Programme Office in Bishkek, underscored the significance of regional collaboration. “Promoting a green economy is essential for achieving sustainable development goals in the face of climate change. Today’s discussions fosters stronger partnerships between businesses, governments, and industry associations, paving the way for innovative solutions in Central Asia,” Ambassador Rogov stated.

The forum also provided an opportunity for local businesses to showcase their eco-friendly products/ solutions at the exhibition held during the event. Entrepreneurs exchanged contacts and ideas, facilitating regional business connections and laying the groundwork for future contracts, which will boost cross-border collaboration on green innovations.

The forum's outcomes contribute to shaping national strategies and policies, driving the region's transition towards a low-carbon and resource-efficient economy.

UNICEF delivered 25 tons of emergency medical supplies to the Ministry of Public Health at the Beirut international airport in response to the escalation of conflict in Lebanon. Credit: UNICEF/UNI657198/Fouad Choufany

By Oritro Karim
Oct 24 2024 (IPS)

Attacks on Lebanon over the past two months, as instigated by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have been increasingly indiscriminate. The Disaster Risk Management Unit at the Lebanese Council of Ministers confirmed that the death toll of Lebanese civilians has risen to over 2,530. Furthermore, Israel’s hostilities have led to casualties among United Nations (UN) personnel, which has been described as “violations of international law”.

Most recently, on the morning of October 23, the IDF coordinated an airstrike on the Lebanese port city of Tyre, mere hours after a series of airstrikes hit the suburbs of southern Beirut, decimating infrastructure. On October 22, Lebanese Cabinet member Nasser Yassin reported that Lebanon will need approximately 250 million dollars on a monthly basis to help the over 1 million displaced people due to the recent escalation in hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.

“Overnight we’ve seen more than 1 million people being displaced by the attacks, hostilities, by the aggression. And this is similar to an earthquake. You don’t see this number in scale and the speed of it, except in major natural disasters. And this is what happened in 48 hours,” said Yassin.

On October 21, an airstrike in southern Beirut destroyed several buildings within range of the Rafik Hariri University Hospital, the largest in Lebanon, and killed 18 civilians. Fears of future attacks on hospitals have spread among Lebanese civilians and officials. Daniel Hagari, spokesperson for the IDF, reported that the hospital contained a bunker with millions of dollars’ worth of cash and gold.

“One of our main targets last night was an underground vault with tens of millions of dollars in cash and gold. The money was being used to finance Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel. According to the estimates we have, there is at least half a billion dollars in dollar bills and gold stored in this bunker. This money could and still can be used to rebuild the state of Lebanon,” said Hagari.

Hospital director Mazen Alame told reporters that no such bunker exists. Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, has warned that any and all attacks involving hospitals are subject to thorough investigations.

On Tuesday October 22, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) detected over 1,417 projectiles that were fired south of the Blue Line, striking critical infrastructure in Al Matmurah, Al Qawzah, Aytaroun, Ett Taibe, Majdal Silim, Ghobeiry, and Khiam. The uptick in violence has led to Hezbollah taking a firmer stance, informing reporters that the conflict has reached a “new phase of escalation”. Political analysts such as Amal Saad predict that hostilities between the two parties will continue to rise in intensity.

“When you look at the bigger picture and you see in relative terms how Hezbollah has survived all this and been able to conduct such fierce resistance to an ongoing attempted invasion by the most powerful army in the Middle East, one can only conclude that Hezbollah is actually stronger than what we assumed it was. This might be a more ferocious Hezbollah that we’re seeing,” said Saad.

Reports from UNIFIL personnel indicate that peacekeeping missions along the border of Lebanon have grown increasingly difficult amid the escalation of airstrikes and ground incursions. On October 13, UNIFIL reported that the IDF breached one of their bases, firing several rounds 100 meters away from their position. 15 peacekeepers suffered injuries from smoke exposure.

UNIFIL issued a press statement on October 20, reporting that an IDF bulldozer had “deliberately demolished” a UN watchtower and perimeter fence. They reiterated that encroaching on UN positions and destroying UN assets constitute violations of international humanitarian law. Despite numerous security breaches and attacks on peacekeeping entities, UNIFIL maintains its positions in Lebanon, continuing to closely monitor and report Israeli offensives.

The UN and its affiliated organizations continue to provide support to affected communities in Lebanon. The World Food Programme (WFP) has been on the frontlines since “day one of the crisis”, distributing daily hot meals and food parcels to over 200,000 kitchens in Lebanon, and providing food assistance to nearly 150,000 Lebanese civilians who have fled to Syria.

The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has delivered over 140 tons of medical supplies to medical facilities and first responders. UNICEF has also provided medical and psychosocial support to people across 50 shelters in Lebanon. They have also distributed essential supplies to displacement shelters, including hygiene kits, water sanitation supplies, bedding, supplements, baby food, and maternity kits.

UNICEF has also partnered with Lebanon’s Ministry of Education to provide educational resources for children to ensure that they maintain some form of schooling in the duration of this conflict.

In the beginning of October, the UN launched a flash appeal of 426 million dollars to provide assistance to impacted communities for the next three months. Continued funding and donor contributions will be crucial as attacks remain frequent.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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