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Written by Gisela Grieger.
To discuss the implications of the outcome of the recent United States election for transatlantic security and trade relations, EPRS held an online policy roundtable on 19 November 2024. Étienne Bassot, Director of the Members’ Research Service, welcomed the audience and introduced the participants, among whom were EU Ambassador to the US, Jovita Neliupšienė, and Brando Benifei (S&D, Italy), Chair of the European Parliament Delegation for relations with the US.
Ambassador Neliupšienė stressed that a key transatlantic priority for the incoming Trump administration is cooperation on China and non-market economic activities in the US and globally. Brando Benifei similarly emphasised the bipartisan support in the US for a tough approach to China and expressed his view that the Trump administration could expect the EU to align with the US approach to China to avoid a tariff war. As the rapporteur for the EU Artificial Intelligence Act, he was confident that common ground could be found with the US in this field.
The ensuing discussion, moderated by Eva-Maria Poptcheva, Head of the EPRS External Policies unit, featured five distinguished panellists and attracted more than 230 attendees. Bruce Stokes, of the German Marshall Fund, explained that 72 % of Americans are discontented with their country’s direction, and this led them to vote for change. Class politics has re-emerged as a major dividing line in American politics. According to Bruce Stokes, Democrats are no longer seen as representing the interests of the working class. The Democratic Party has become the party of urban voters with advanced degrees, whilst the Republican Party is largely seen as the party representing rural areas.
Matthew Boyse, of the Hudson Institute, stated that he was not worried about NATO’s future, but that he would strongly suggest that EU Member States whose defence spending was not yet at 2 % of GDP make efforts to achieve this target soon and that all of them should plan for 3.5 % or 4 %. He warned that confronting the Trump administration on divisive issues would be counterproductive and concerns could become a self-fulfilling prophesy. He recommended approaching the Trump administration with a positive, constructive and collaborative frame of mind.
Leslie Vinjamuri (Chatham House), pointed to a significant shift in the general direction in the US, coupled with a reorientation of its priorities. Europe is currently undertaking a lot of hedging, manoeuvring and preparing for what is ahead in the US. A big part of the motivation for this is not only to prepare for what a Republican administration might mean, but also carries the memory of Afghanistan and seeks to avoid being excluded from US decisions when it comes to Ukraine – via a ‘grand bargain’ with Putin. She predicted that linkage politics is on the rise. The economic security agenda has blurred the line between open markets and the rules-based order on the economic side and security commitments and defence spending. The use of linkages across these two domains that used to be sacredly distinct is certainly the direction going forward.
Mark Strand, former President of the Congressional Institute, stressed that Trump won a broad-based, multi-racial, working-class majority. Trump won votes not only from white and Hispanic men, but he also doubled his support among black Americans. He also dramatically shifted voters to back him in states that he lost. Mark Strand stressed that Trump is not an isolationist, but rather a realist who takes countries as they are and does not seek to change them. On tariffs, he stated these are a tool for Trump to force certain behaviours. He suggested that the EU enter into sectoral trade agreements with the US, to seize opportunities where there is low-hanging fruit to see US tariffs disappear.Walter Goetz, Head of the EU-US Congress Liaison Office in Washington DC, noted that the Washington office will continue to serve as a transatlantic bridge to build good relations with the incoming administration by facilitating exchanges between Members and US lawmakers, including in the framework of the Transatlantic Legislators’ Dialogue.