Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

The EU's efforts to integrate sustainability into its trade policy have met with mixed reactions, particularly from developing countries. Previously, the EU has sought to promote relevant autonomous measures and the Trade and Sustainable Development chapters in its trade agreements by offering support for implementation and compliance. However, further alignment of trade and development co-operation, known as external policy coherence, faces growing challenges as the second von der Leyen Commission has made Europe's economic security a top priority. Although this new agenda has yet to translate into tangible (trade) policy actions beyond recently adopted initial measures, the shift in focus is driving increased investment in competitiveness and securing access to critical raw materials – efforts that, at times, appear fragmented rather than co-ordinated. Whilst the EU acknowledges that partnerships, including those with countries from the Global South, are essential to strengthen its position in the growing geopolitical competition with other major economies, the increasingly complex global and regional context, coupled with shifting internal priorities, challenges the Commission's ability to balance the EU's trade and development ambitions. This commentary explores new directions for a coherent EU trade and development policy in the dynamic geopolitical landscape of 2025 and beyond.

The EU's efforts to integrate sustainability into its trade policy have met with mixed reactions, particularly from developing countries. Previously, the EU has sought to promote relevant autonomous measures and the Trade and Sustainable Development chapters in its trade agreements by offering support for implementation and compliance. However, further alignment of trade and development co-operation, known as external policy coherence, faces growing challenges as the second von der Leyen Commission has made Europe's economic security a top priority. Although this new agenda has yet to translate into tangible (trade) policy actions beyond recently adopted initial measures, the shift in focus is driving increased investment in competitiveness and securing access to critical raw materials – efforts that, at times, appear fragmented rather than co-ordinated. Whilst the EU acknowledges that partnerships, including those with countries from the Global South, are essential to strengthen its position in the growing geopolitical competition with other major economies, the increasingly complex global and regional context, coupled with shifting internal priorities, challenges the Commission's ability to balance the EU's trade and development ambitions. This commentary explores new directions for a coherent EU trade and development policy in the dynamic geopolitical landscape of 2025 and beyond.

Im vergangenen Jahr hat SPD-Chef Lars Klingbeil seine Idee zur Wiederbelebung einer Nord-Süd-Kommission vorgestellt. Andy Sumner, Stephan Klingebiel und Arief Anshory Yusuf machen einen Vorschlag, wie diese ausgestaltet werden könnte.

Im vergangenen Jahr hat SPD-Chef Lars Klingbeil seine Idee zur Wiederbelebung einer Nord-Süd-Kommission vorgestellt. Andy Sumner, Stephan Klingebiel und Arief Anshory Yusuf machen einen Vorschlag, wie diese ausgestaltet werden könnte.

Im vergangenen Jahr hat SPD-Chef Lars Klingbeil seine Idee zur Wiederbelebung einer Nord-Süd-Kommission vorgestellt. Andy Sumner, Stephan Klingebiel und Arief Anshory Yusuf machen einen Vorschlag, wie diese ausgestaltet werden könnte.

The study employed a large-N research design, involving data from 41 African countries across four rounds (R6–R9) of Afrobarometer surveys conducted in 2016, 2019, 2022, and 2023 respectively. Rounds 1–5 were excluded from the analysis because one of the key explanatory variables, social media usage, was only measured in Round 6 (2016) for the first time. The final list of countries for each round of the survey is contained in the Online Appendix. The research activity is part of the Megatrends Afrika project which focuses on three research areas of “Violent Actors and the Transformation of Conflict”, “Megatrends between Democratization and Autocratization” and “Global Power Shifts and Multipolarity” to analyse how global megatrends shape African states and societies. The aim of the project is to provide political decision-makers with evidence-based policy advice and to contribute to a more differentiated public debate on Africa policy.

Godfred Bonnah Nkansah is a Megatrends Afrika Research Fellow at the German Institue of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

The study employed a large-N research design, involving data from 41 African countries across four rounds (R6–R9) of Afrobarometer surveys conducted in 2016, 2019, 2022, and 2023 respectively. Rounds 1–5 were excluded from the analysis because one of the key explanatory variables, social media usage, was only measured in Round 6 (2016) for the first time. The final list of countries for each round of the survey is contained in the Online Appendix. The research activity is part of the Megatrends Afrika project which focuses on three research areas of “Violent Actors and the Transformation of Conflict”, “Megatrends between Democratization and Autocratization” and “Global Power Shifts and Multipolarity” to analyse how global megatrends shape African states and societies. The aim of the project is to provide political decision-makers with evidence-based policy advice and to contribute to a more differentiated public debate on Africa policy.

Godfred Bonnah Nkansah is a Megatrends Afrika Research Fellow at the German Institue of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

The study employed a large-N research design, involving data from 41 African countries across four rounds (R6–R9) of Afrobarometer surveys conducted in 2016, 2019, 2022, and 2023 respectively. Rounds 1–5 were excluded from the analysis because one of the key explanatory variables, social media usage, was only measured in Round 6 (2016) for the first time. The final list of countries for each round of the survey is contained in the Online Appendix. The research activity is part of the Megatrends Afrika project which focuses on three research areas of “Violent Actors and the Transformation of Conflict”, “Megatrends between Democratization and Autocratization” and “Global Power Shifts and Multipolarity” to analyse how global megatrends shape African states and societies. The aim of the project is to provide political decision-makers with evidence-based policy advice and to contribute to a more differentiated public debate on Africa policy.

Godfred Bonnah Nkansah is a Megatrends Afrika Research Fellow at the German Institue of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

In recent years, Morocco has shifted from being primarily a country of transit and emigration to becoming a country of settlement. This evolution is largely driven by increased border restrictions and pushbacks, which have made migration routes to the EU less accessible. As a result, the city of Casablanca has become a hub of urban settlement instead of a transitional step in onward movement. Interviews conducted with non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and civil society organisations (CSOs) working with urban migrants and displaced people in Casablanca highlighted ways that development cooperation can have a positive impact on urban migration contexts. 
Indeed, the more hands-off approach of local authorities in Casablanca when dealing with migrant communities contrasts with the aggressive policing common in Rabat and border areas, creating space for the establishment of informal migrant organisations in host communities. These organisations have become interlocutors with official institutions, playing a critical role in re-establishing migrants’ and host communities’ trust in official institutions. 
With CSO and NGO support, communities themselves have also found ways to build inclusion and cooperation. Islamic values and Moroccan tradition of hospitality influence the provision of common goods at the household and neighbourhood level. Hosts and migrants also legally benefit from education and health services provided by governmental and non-governmental organisations; 
the challenge lies in ensuring that all parties are aware of the services available to them, in many cases regardless of their immigration status. Still, the contemporary discourse around migration and displacement in Morocco is infused with xenophobia, exclusion and racism, problems compounded by a media environment highly critical of migrants and displaced people. However, experts underlined the impact of repeated positive interactions between migrant and host communities in tempering hostile rhetoric. 
Key policy messages: 
• Health, education, and housing are universal needs for both host communities and migrants. Ensure that funded programmes are available to everyone who lives in the neighbourhood, host or migrant, and that these are common goods around which community identity can be built. 
• Communicating the history of migration in areas of arrival is critical. These histories can help international organisations contextualise their programming and make immigration and settlement part of a wider story that inclusive identity can be built around. 
• Build cooperation between city- and municipal-level organisations nationally. City-to-city cooperation can fill knowledge gaps about national migration policy and reduce duplication of efforts by CSOs and NGOs who work with migrants. 

Elise Delespesse is an independent consultant based in Bonn, Germany.

In recent years, Morocco has shifted from being primarily a country of transit and emigration to becoming a country of settlement. This evolution is largely driven by increased border restrictions and pushbacks, which have made migration routes to the EU less accessible. As a result, the city of Casablanca has become a hub of urban settlement instead of a transitional step in onward movement. Interviews conducted with non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and civil society organisations (CSOs) working with urban migrants and displaced people in Casablanca highlighted ways that development cooperation can have a positive impact on urban migration contexts. 
Indeed, the more hands-off approach of local authorities in Casablanca when dealing with migrant communities contrasts with the aggressive policing common in Rabat and border areas, creating space for the establishment of informal migrant organisations in host communities. These organisations have become interlocutors with official institutions, playing a critical role in re-establishing migrants’ and host communities’ trust in official institutions. 
With CSO and NGO support, communities themselves have also found ways to build inclusion and cooperation. Islamic values and Moroccan tradition of hospitality influence the provision of common goods at the household and neighbourhood level. Hosts and migrants also legally benefit from education and health services provided by governmental and non-governmental organisations; 
the challenge lies in ensuring that all parties are aware of the services available to them, in many cases regardless of their immigration status. Still, the contemporary discourse around migration and displacement in Morocco is infused with xenophobia, exclusion and racism, problems compounded by a media environment highly critical of migrants and displaced people. However, experts underlined the impact of repeated positive interactions between migrant and host communities in tempering hostile rhetoric. 
Key policy messages: 
• Health, education, and housing are universal needs for both host communities and migrants. Ensure that funded programmes are available to everyone who lives in the neighbourhood, host or migrant, and that these are common goods around which community identity can be built. 
• Communicating the history of migration in areas of arrival is critical. These histories can help international organisations contextualise their programming and make immigration and settlement part of a wider story that inclusive identity can be built around. 
• Build cooperation between city- and municipal-level organisations nationally. City-to-city cooperation can fill knowledge gaps about national migration policy and reduce duplication of efforts by CSOs and NGOs who work with migrants. 

Elise Delespesse is an independent consultant based in Bonn, Germany.

In recent years, Morocco has shifted from being primarily a country of transit and emigration to becoming a country of settlement. This evolution is largely driven by increased border restrictions and pushbacks, which have made migration routes to the EU less accessible. As a result, the city of Casablanca has become a hub of urban settlement instead of a transitional step in onward movement. Interviews conducted with non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and civil society organisations (CSOs) working with urban migrants and displaced people in Casablanca highlighted ways that development cooperation can have a positive impact on urban migration contexts. 
Indeed, the more hands-off approach of local authorities in Casablanca when dealing with migrant communities contrasts with the aggressive policing common in Rabat and border areas, creating space for the establishment of informal migrant organisations in host communities. These organisations have become interlocutors with official institutions, playing a critical role in re-establishing migrants’ and host communities’ trust in official institutions. 
With CSO and NGO support, communities themselves have also found ways to build inclusion and cooperation. Islamic values and Moroccan tradition of hospitality influence the provision of common goods at the household and neighbourhood level. Hosts and migrants also legally benefit from education and health services provided by governmental and non-governmental organisations; 
the challenge lies in ensuring that all parties are aware of the services available to them, in many cases regardless of their immigration status. Still, the contemporary discourse around migration and displacement in Morocco is infused with xenophobia, exclusion and racism, problems compounded by a media environment highly critical of migrants and displaced people. However, experts underlined the impact of repeated positive interactions between migrant and host communities in tempering hostile rhetoric. 
Key policy messages: 
• Health, education, and housing are universal needs for both host communities and migrants. Ensure that funded programmes are available to everyone who lives in the neighbourhood, host or migrant, and that these are common goods around which community identity can be built. 
• Communicating the history of migration in areas of arrival is critical. These histories can help international organisations contextualise their programming and make immigration and settlement part of a wider story that inclusive identity can be built around. 
• Build cooperation between city- and municipal-level organisations nationally. City-to-city cooperation can fill knowledge gaps about national migration policy and reduce duplication of efforts by CSOs and NGOs who work with migrants. 

Elise Delespesse is an independent consultant based in Bonn, Germany.

• The imposition of higher tariffs by President Trump or the threat to do so, while seemingly contradicting economic orthodoxy is not out of sync with the President’s view of the world.

• Tariffs are used as bargaining tool to force US trading partners into bilateral negotiations.

• A so-called “Mar-a-Lago Accord”, in the spirit of the 1985 Plaza Accord, could, in Trump’s view, help in responding to the key challenges of the American economy.

• According to the existing literature, the potential effects of higher US tariffs on the EU are going to be small to medium (0.10%-0.66%).

• Macroeconomic projections by the IMF, which combine the effects of higher tariffs with uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, place the medium-term effect for the EU at 1.75% of GDP.

• The effect of US trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on EU GDP with a two-standard deviation increase of TPU will be up to a drop of EU GDP by 0.73% after three years (the cumulative loss reaching 6.49%).

Read here in pdf the Policy paper by Panagiotis Konstantinou, Assistant Professor, Athens University of Economics and Business; Spyros Blavoukos, Professor, Athens University of Economics and Business; Head of the ‘Arian Contellis’ European Programme, ELIAMEP and Panagiota Pagoni, Research Assistant, ELIAMEP.

Can South Africa’s Just Energy Transition (JET) deliver environmental sustainability and socioeconomic justice, or will it falter under systemic flaws? This policy brief examines the JET’s objectives of aligning climate goals with socioeconomic stability, while addressing critical hurdles such as employment instability, the trade-off between job quality and quantity, skills mismatches, regional disparities, and inadequate social protection. Key findings reveal that renewable energy jobs, though growing in number, often lack the benefits of coal sector employment—such as job security, collective bargaining power, pension contributions, and long-term contracts. Skills development gaps further entrench inequalities, particularly in coal-dependent regions like Mpumalanga. The policy brief proposes several recommendations: a job guarantee scheme; reformed social insurance for broader coverage; scaled reskilling programmes to bridge workforce gaps; and community-led governance to ensure local empowerment.

Can South Africa’s Just Energy Transition (JET) deliver environmental sustainability and socioeconomic justice, or will it falter under systemic flaws? This policy brief examines the JET’s objectives of aligning climate goals with socioeconomic stability, while addressing critical hurdles such as employment instability, the trade-off between job quality and quantity, skills mismatches, regional disparities, and inadequate social protection. Key findings reveal that renewable energy jobs, though growing in number, often lack the benefits of coal sector employment—such as job security, collective bargaining power, pension contributions, and long-term contracts. Skills development gaps further entrench inequalities, particularly in coal-dependent regions like Mpumalanga. The policy brief proposes several recommendations: a job guarantee scheme; reformed social insurance for broader coverage; scaled reskilling programmes to bridge workforce gaps; and community-led governance to ensure local empowerment.

Can South Africa’s Just Energy Transition (JET) deliver environmental sustainability and socioeconomic justice, or will it falter under systemic flaws? This policy brief examines the JET’s objectives of aligning climate goals with socioeconomic stability, while addressing critical hurdles such as employment instability, the trade-off between job quality and quantity, skills mismatches, regional disparities, and inadequate social protection. Key findings reveal that renewable energy jobs, though growing in number, often lack the benefits of coal sector employment—such as job security, collective bargaining power, pension contributions, and long-term contracts. Skills development gaps further entrench inequalities, particularly in coal-dependent regions like Mpumalanga. The policy brief proposes several recommendations: a job guarantee scheme; reformed social insurance for broader coverage; scaled reskilling programmes to bridge workforce gaps; and community-led governance to ensure local empowerment.

To meet decarbonization targets, demand for low-emission hydrogen is increasing. A considerable share of supply will come from latecomer countries. We study how latecomer countries and firms participate in the emerging global low-emission hydrogen economy and how industrial policies can help maximize societal benefits. This requires a specific conceptualization of industrial policy: First, the latecomer condition calls for specific policy mixes, as latecomers typically cannot build on established innovation systems and network externalities, and rather need to combine FDI attraction with measures strengthening absorptive capacity and ensuring knowledge transfer from FDI to domestic firms; second, low-emission hydrogen is a policy-induced alternative that requires creating entirely new firm ecosystems while competing with lower-cost emission-intensive incumbent technologies. Hence, industrial policies need to account for enhanced coordination failure and internalization of environmental costs. We analyze the published national hydrogen strategies of 20 latecomer economies and derive a novel typology differentiating four hydrogen-specific industrial development pathways. For each pathway, we assess entry barriers and risks, identify the policies suggested in the country strategies, and discuss how likely those are to be successful. The novel pathway typology and comparison of associated policy mixes may help policymakers maximize the gains of hydrogen investments.

To meet decarbonization targets, demand for low-emission hydrogen is increasing. A considerable share of supply will come from latecomer countries. We study how latecomer countries and firms participate in the emerging global low-emission hydrogen economy and how industrial policies can help maximize societal benefits. This requires a specific conceptualization of industrial policy: First, the latecomer condition calls for specific policy mixes, as latecomers typically cannot build on established innovation systems and network externalities, and rather need to combine FDI attraction with measures strengthening absorptive capacity and ensuring knowledge transfer from FDI to domestic firms; second, low-emission hydrogen is a policy-induced alternative that requires creating entirely new firm ecosystems while competing with lower-cost emission-intensive incumbent technologies. Hence, industrial policies need to account for enhanced coordination failure and internalization of environmental costs. We analyze the published national hydrogen strategies of 20 latecomer economies and derive a novel typology differentiating four hydrogen-specific industrial development pathways. For each pathway, we assess entry barriers and risks, identify the policies suggested in the country strategies, and discuss how likely those are to be successful. The novel pathway typology and comparison of associated policy mixes may help policymakers maximize the gains of hydrogen investments.

To meet decarbonization targets, demand for low-emission hydrogen is increasing. A considerable share of supply will come from latecomer countries. We study how latecomer countries and firms participate in the emerging global low-emission hydrogen economy and how industrial policies can help maximize societal benefits. This requires a specific conceptualization of industrial policy: First, the latecomer condition calls for specific policy mixes, as latecomers typically cannot build on established innovation systems and network externalities, and rather need to combine FDI attraction with measures strengthening absorptive capacity and ensuring knowledge transfer from FDI to domestic firms; second, low-emission hydrogen is a policy-induced alternative that requires creating entirely new firm ecosystems while competing with lower-cost emission-intensive incumbent technologies. Hence, industrial policies need to account for enhanced coordination failure and internalization of environmental costs. We analyze the published national hydrogen strategies of 20 latecomer economies and derive a novel typology differentiating four hydrogen-specific industrial development pathways. For each pathway, we assess entry barriers and risks, identify the policies suggested in the country strategies, and discuss how likely those are to be successful. The novel pathway typology and comparison of associated policy mixes may help policymakers maximize the gains of hydrogen investments.

Climate extremes like prolonged droughts or excessive flooding disrupt the intertwined lives of rural women with agriculture in the Global South, especially those dependent on traditional practices like shifting cultivation or rain-fed irrigation. Agriculture is not just food production or a livelihood for these women but an extension of the care work that helps them feed their families. On the other hand, traditional hetero-patriarchal social norms continue to disempower them to make choices related to agriculture and food production as they often lack the decision-making and ownership rights on the land they toil. Women belonging to marginalized tribal communities facing compound intersectional challenges due to gender, caste, ethnicity, illiteracy, poverty, and language find it even harder to define their life goals and act upon them. This chapter shows how specific gender-transformative adaptation measures, such as promoting women’s land rights, providing access to climate-resilient seeds, and offering training in climate-smart agricultural practices, can bring in, albeit small, transformative changes. Based on ethnographic research, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions with Mal Pahariya women and NGO workers in Jharkhand, India, this chapter shows how these measures, if designed effectively, can tackle the root causes embedded in the existing social, political, economic, and cultural context that aids gender inequality and injustice to persist. The study also shows that food and nutrition security, leadership, economic decision-making, and capacity building by learning new skills can emerge as co-benefits that can help them address other daily challenges.