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UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres prioritizes reform at 'UN80 Initiative' launch. 1 May 2025. Credit: UN Photo/Manuel Elías

By Simone Galimberti
KATHMANDU, Nepal, May 20 2025 (IPS)

How would the UN80 Initiative, designed to mark the 80th Anniversary of the United Nations, turned out to be, if Kamala Harris had won the American presidential election in November last year?

As more details are emerging on plans being drawn by Secretary General António Guterres to drastically restructure and re-organize the whole United Nation system, I could not stop thinking about this question.

The UN has become a real “galaxy” of agencies, programs and offices, often with overlapping mandates and functions. Yet without a second Trump Administration, it is very likely that the UN80 Initiative would have taken a much different shape.

After all, the UN 2.0 blueprint, a timid proposal to reform and modernize the United Nations, developed in 2022 as a key pillar of the ambitious Our Common Agenda, never really took off.

A frank assessment would consider the UN 2.0 as a blueprint full of hype and catchy words but profoundly lacking substance.

Yet at least the UN 2.0 talked, even if in generic terms, about an important need that the United Nations should have taken care of: change its internal culture.

But instead of focusing only on the UN turning itself into a “forward thinking” organization as proposed in the blueprint, the cultural shift at the UN should be much more ambitious and radical.

Does the UN have to start to think and act as a startup organization? Perhaps it can help get rid of a red tape culture but at the same time, some caution might be welcome, considering also all the negative consequences stemming from embracing a venture capitalist approach to organizational culture.

That’s why the profound rethinking that now is under place at the UN should be grounded on simple values of humbleness and humility.

As shocking as they might seem, these two elements are the cornerstone of principled leadership and the UN, if it really wants to be a “lighthouse” in situations in which humanity and the planet face troubling dark times, these should be embedded in any new restructuring.

Over the years the UN has become aloof and remote even in places like in the so-called Global South where it has a strong presence and its mandate is generally well received by locals.

This situation can be emblematically thought of as a working culture that lacks responsiveness and does not do enough to reach out to the locals.

This is partly due to the UN’s mandate to work and assist with national governments but it has become an excuse to not engage civil society and the citizenry.

The problem, instead, is deeper and it starts with the fact that UN staff ended up, even unconsciously and involuntarily, as a “caste” of special “ones”.

I do not doubt the seriousness and commitment of the vast majority of UN personnel but the system is so flawed that it is inevitable that, no matter your good intentions, you end up being isolated from the ground reality.

As naïve as it might look, why do not we start from the basics? Are the highly paid jobs at the UN morally justified?

One thing is to have a good salary but another thing is to have perks and facilities that only the privileged “ones” are supposed to be entitled to. Then, why not tax the salaries of UN personnel?

These issues do snowball and become bigger and influence an entire working mindset and, at the end, they become deeply entrenched in the organizational culture of the UN.

Why is it so difficult to secure appointments with the UN officials or getting an answer for some ideas that have been proposed to them?

It is certainly impossible for the UN agencies and programs to entertain any requests, but, I do believe it would make sense for the UN to have a much more responsive approach.

Another example: why running events in four or five star hotels?

Again, this question could be shot down with disdain and as a trivial matter but, it is just a symptom of a much broader malaise that has a real outcome: a lot of wasted resources that could be better spent.

There is a broader acceptance, even if it will be hardly admitted, that the UN are neither responsive nor accountable. The discussions being prioritized at the moment by the UN SG are not tackling these underlying issues.

The ongoing debate is more about eliminating the vast amount of inefficiencies through merging and elimination of overlapping entities. It is not that these potential shake ups do not make sense.

It is actually welcome but, unless there is a deep reflection on how the UN can be really more accountable and transparent and accessible, the change won’t be as powerful as many hope.

Right at the top, most of the executive heads of agencies and programs are very well-meaning and committed professionals but many of them are former high level officials in their country of origin.

They have been accustomed to high offices that often are far removed from the ground reality. Therefore, they are not well suited to try to create efficiencies and re-tool the entire working approach. But the problem is also with the mandate of the United Nations.

Rather than focusing exclusively on assisting its member nations, the UN should also reposition its functions to do a much better job at partnering with civil society organizations. This also makes sense because freedoms are shrinking both in the North and in the South and overall democracy is in decline.

A more agile and humble UN could have a core mandate of supporting grassroots organizations and the whole civil society. A practical way to start doing it is for the UN to engage and consult more and better with the society at large, even when the hosting nations would not appreciate it.

I do often think that the UN as a system is oftentimes too submissive to the host governments even if the latter are recipients of huge amounts of assistance. It acts and obliges as if it did not have any negotiating powers.

To bring in efficiencies, moreover, the UN agencies and programs should stop being implementers on behalf of other donors.

It often happens that, at country levels, the offices of major UN agencies sign partnership agreements with bilateral agencies.

There are better practices to implement development assistance rather than relying on the “technical’ expertise of UN Agencies.

Why can’t bilateral agencies directly support civil society or why can’t the UN agencies only play a much more limited role? Instead of setting up whole teams made up by contracted officials, in effect long term consultants, why not truly support local NGOs in terms of organizational development and technical knowledge through a much more nimble approach?

All these proposals might be easily dismissed by those who have been thriving throughout the years in a system whose potential of real impact has been trimmed by a working culture that does not any more meet the thresholds set by the high purposes for which the UN were created.

But the status quo cannot continue.

Unfortunately, only Donald Trump could trigger a bold restricting of the UN. Merging and cutting agencies and programs should be one side of the revolution that Mr. Guterres has been forced to tackle.

Let’s not forget the less visible, perhaps softer side of the coin. Without eradicating a mindset that ended up self-justifying and self-promoting, the UN will cease to exist.

And this will be a real problem for our humanity.

That’s why the status quo at the UN must be defeated.

https://press.un.org/en/2025/sgsm22644.doc.htm

Simone Galimberti writes about the SDGs, youth-centered policy-making and a stronger and better United Nations.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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By Jomo Kwame Sundaram
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, May 20 2025 (IPS)

With President Trump’s efforts to end the Ukraine war, Europeans are now mainly responsible for prolonging it. Despite lame protestations of peace, Europe seems committed to fighting ‘to the last Ukrainian’.

Unsustainable peace
As Europe celebrated the end of the Nazi-initiated Second World War earlier in May, it does not seem to know how to sustain peace after war.

Jomo Kwame Sundaram

Both ‘world wars’ of the 20th century started in Europe as inter-imperialist wars, killing millions. In 1884-5, the Berlin Conference divided Africa among the dominant European powers.

After attending the Versailles palace negotiations following WW1, the young John Maynard Keynes’ The Economic Consequences of the Peace warned the agreement’s terms undermined a sustainable peace, almost anticipating Nazism’s later rise.

Towards the end of World War II (WW2), FDR’s Treasury Secretary, Henry Morgenthau, insisted Germany should not be allowed to re-industrialise after the War.

After starting and losing two world wars, German military aggression seemed unavoidable. For Morgenthau, reindustrialisation would inevitably lead Germany to war again.

For FDR, only postwar recovery for all would ‘win the peace’, not subjugating and destroying the loser.

His WW2 generals, famously Eisenhower, Marshall and MacArthur, imposed ‘pacifist’ constitutions and reforms for postwar growth on Germany and Japan.

Imperial oversight?
Despite his brilliant contemporaneous insights into the unsustainability of the peace secured at Versailles, Keynes ignored its outcome for China.

At Versailles, the Shandong peninsula, previously ruled by the Germans, was not returned to China, but given to Japan instead!

The resulting May 4th (1919) movement culminated in the Chinese revolution. Keynes was as blind to this as to WW2’s three million lives lost to the Bengal famine.

Although invisible in movies, tens of thousands from China were involved in WW1, mainly digging trenches for European troops in a war primarily remembered for trench warfare.

German possessions in southern Africa were not returned to Africans, but instead held ‘in trust’ by European powers, including the white South African regime.

While there have not been more ‘world wars’ since the end of the Cold War, there have been many more wars in the supposedly unipolar/multipolar world.

NATO v the UN
At the UN General Assembly, 141 countries condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But many also oppose North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expansion via Ukraine to threaten Russia.

This is reminiscent of broad international support for President John F Kennedy in 1962 when he insisted Soviet missiles be withdrawn from Cuba, just off Florida.

NATO was established for the Cold War and should have been dissolved at its end. Its raison d’être, the rival Warsaw Pact, was gone. Worse, NATO expansion continues while it conducts unlawful wars not sanctioned by the UN Security Council.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande have both confessed that the 2014 Minsk deal with the Russians was intended to buy time to arm Ukraine for war later, not to secure peace.

Similarly, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson successfully blocked negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in the last half-year of his tenure. A peace deal would have ended hostilities and saved hundreds of thousands of lives, mainly Ukrainian.

Europe has continued to insist on war despite worsening odds. And when NATO allies blew up the gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, no protests followed.

NATO should have been dissolved at the end of the Cold War, once its raison d’être, the rival Warsaw Pact, was gone.

Despite Europe’s pretensions of leading worldwide efforts against global warming, it quickly reversed earlier commitments, even abandoning its 2021 Glasgow commitment to reject coal less than half a year later.

Unsurprisingly, the Global South remains sceptical of the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), perhaps only the latest form of European trade protectionism.

The EU has already worsened world economic conditions by raising interest rates, imposing illegal sanctions, insisting on fiscal austerity and cutting social spending in favour of military expenditure.

European leaders now proudly announce military Keynesian policies, expecting growth from more war spending. Thus, the turn to war has meant less growth and more inequality.

A non-aligned South?
FDR envisaged a peaceful new multilateral order offering progress for all. But such hopes have been squelched by political pressures for informal empire abetted by a resurgent military-industrial complex.

A different world is needed based on much stronger commitments to peace, freedom and non-alignment. It may be time for the West, the Global North and others to learn from the South-East.

In 1955, Indonesia hosted the Afro-Asian summit in Bandung, which boldly spoke for the post-colonial South and made the case for non-alignment as the Cold War began.

Over half a century ago, in 1973, the Association for South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), set up in 1967, committed to creating a zone of peace, freedom and neutrality (ZOPFAN).

Creating the enabling conditions for ongoing cooperation, development, and progress can help sustain the bases for a peaceful and progressive new world order.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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By CIVICUS
May 19 2025 (IPS)

 
CIVICUS speaks with Eric Bjornlund, President and CEO of Democracy International, about the impacts of the US foreign aid freeze and the resulting legal challenges the Trump administration is facing. Democracy International is a global civil society organisation (CSO) that works for a more peaceful and democratic world.

Upon taking office, Trump immediately suspended all foreign aid and dismantled the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), blocking over US$40 billion in congressionally approved funding. This halted crucial global work in democracy, development, health and human rights. In February, several CSOs, including Democracy International, filed a lawsuit challenging Trump’s legal authority to freeze these funds. Despite a court ruling ordering the release of the money and the restoration of foreign assistance, legal proceedings continue.

Eric Bjornlund

What are the most severe consequences of the funding freeze?

The impact on vital international work on democracy, healthcare, human rights and international development has been devastating and far-reaching. The government has even refused to honour invoices or reimburse legally authorised expenses, including those incurred under the previous administration. With 83 per cent of programmes cancelled, many organisations have been forced to shut their operations.

Health services were among the first to collapse: thousands of healthcare workers were dismissed, with essential medicine and food aid left stockpiled and expiring, being damaged or stolen. This has increased deaths from HIV/AIDS and malaria and left reproductive health needs unmet.

Beyond healthcare, the damage spans multiple sectors: education for girls cut, demining operations suspended, Ukrainian refugee shelters compromised, protection for minors from gang recruitment in Central America terminated, cybersecurity in Ukraine halted and support for civil society opposing authoritarian violence in Myanmar ended. Even efforts tracking zoonotic diseases in Bangladesh have ceased.

How has Democracy International been affected?

With 98 per cent of our 2024 revenue from USAID, we’ve been crippled. Despite a federal court declaring the terminations unlawful, all our programmes have been cancelled, forcing staff furloughs, office closures and delayed payments.

The human cost has been immense. In Bangladesh, we’ve discontinued medical assistance to students injured during protest crackdowns. In Burkina Faso, the lives of human rights defenders documenting violence against Christian communities are at risk because we can no longer relocate them. The same lack of crucial support is affecting Nicaraguan political prisoners, state violence victims in Mozambique, government critics in the Philippines and democracy advocates in Tanzania. In Jamaica, over 500 vulnerable young people risk being recruited by gangs without our counselling services, apprenticeship opportunities and vocational skills-building training.

We’ve also been forced to abandon critical governance initiatives. We’ve suspended support for Bangladesh’s post-authoritarian transition, legal assistance for civil society navigating foreign agent laws in Kyrgyzstan, funding coordination for displaced Armenians and democracy leadership in Libya.

Beyond immediate harms, this has broken the trust of communities we’ve supported for years, undermined civil society credibility and surrendered significant political influence to authoritarian powers such as China and Russia.

What collective action has civil society taken?

The freeze blindsided us, but we quickly recognised the need for a coordinated response. We’ve partnered with former USAID officials – particularly those whose work focused on democracy and human rights – to advocate for foreign aid restoration and defend democracy and the rule of law in the USA. We’ve also worked with USAID implementing partners, consulted global experts and sought to identify new funding opportunities.

But our strongest strategy has been legal action. We joined a coalition of USAID partners to file a lawsuit that secured a temporary restraining order in February and a preliminary injunction in March, ordering the government to resume payments and restore funding.

Despite our case reaching the Supreme Court, the administration has largely failed to comply, creating a constitutional crisis that’s testing the judiciary’s ability to check executive power. While legal action remains central to our strategy, we recognise the need for congressional involvement to achieve a sustainable solution.

What are your legal arguments?

We challenge the government on multiple grounds. First, we argue the blanket termination of foreign assistance under the Administrative Procedure Act is both arbitrary and unlawful. Second, we contend this action fundamentally breaches the constitutional separation of powers. Neither the President, Secretary of State nor USAID Administrator has legal authority to unilaterally withhold appropriated funds or dismantle a statutory agency.

The administration has violated both Congress’s exclusive power over spending and its shared foreign policy role. The Impoundment Control Act explicitly prohibits defunding programmes based merely on policy preferences without following strict procedural requirements.

The court has agreed with our position that no rational basis exists for such a sweeping freeze if the stated purpose was merely to review programmes’ efficiency and consistency. The government has also disregarded organisations’ significant reliance on these funds, forcing many to close permanently.

How can democratic institutions be strengthened against such overreach?

Constitutional checks and balances function only when all branches respect them. Congress must defend its spending authority, courts must continue asserting their oversight role and ultimately, the executive must respect the rule of law. But whether it will do so remains uncertain.

If this situation persists unresolved, the humanitarian toll will continue mounting globally while the security, prosperity and global standing of the USA deteriorate. Robust accountability mechanisms and institutional safeguards are essential to protect aid systems globally and democracy at home.

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United Nations Ocean Conference (UNOC)
 
The Third United Nations Ocean Conference (UNOC3) will be held in Nice, France, from June 9 to 13, 2025. This event will bring together world leaders, scientists, and stakeholders to discuss the conservation and sustainable use of the oceans. The conference's overarching theme is "Accelerating action and mobilizing all actors to conserve and sustainably use the ocean".

By Ted Danson
NICE, France, May 19 2025 (IPS)

Seafood is a staple in my house – fish tacos, paella, sushi. But no matter how good it tastes, I can’t help but wonder: was my fish caught responsibly? Or did something go horribly wrong before it ever reached my plate?

Next month, as world leaders gather in Nice, France for the third United Nations Ocean Conference, they must confront a hard truth: a lack of transparency at sea is enabling illegal fishing and undermining efforts to protect our oceans.

Too often, bad actors exploit the vastness of the ocean to fish illegally and launder their catch into the seafood supply chain – with devastating consequences for marine life, coastal communities, and legitimate fishers.

This means the seafood at your local grocery store or favorite restaurant might be tied to these illicit activities — and you’d have no way of knowing. But it doesn’t have to be this way.

Ted Danson

In 2023, Oceana – where I serve on the Board of Directors – analyzed fishing activity near Ecuador’s iconic Galápagos Islands, a marine protected area since 1998. What we found was alarming: hundreds of industrial fishing vessels – mostly flagged to China, but also Spain, Panama, and Ecuador, clustered near the border of the protected area – only to disappear from view after disabling their public tracking devices.

This kind of behavior often signals something is wrong. A vessel might be trying to hide its location to fish illegally, operate in another country’s waters without permission, or offload its catch under the radar.

Even in places with rules, those rules are often flouted. The European Union, for instance, requires vessels over 49 feet to keep their tracking systems on at all times, unless there’s a genuine safety issue. Yet in our analysis of fishing around the Galápagos, 24 Spanish-flagged vessels disappeared for more than 35,000 hours combined.

Fifty-three Chinese-flagged vessels vanished for nearly 27,000 hours – and nearly all had a potential encounter or transshipment activity, where fishing vessels transfer their catch to refrigerated cargo ships at sea. While not illegal, this practice is often used to mix legal and illegal seafood, making it nearly impossible to trace.

If these practices continue unchecked, local fishers may soon find themselves coming home empty-handed.

But there’s a better way.

In 2023, small-scale mahi-mahi fishers in San Mateo, Ecuador – where 90% of the community relies on artisanal fishing – pioneered a program to build trust and traceability. Their boats were equipped with cameras and digital tracking systems.

The catch data was embedded in QR codes, allowing buyers to trace each fish back to the boat and the people who caught it.

Peru is also stepping up. The government is working to ensure that every vessel fishing for human consumption is tracked and reporting its catch. This isn’t just a top-down regulation – small-scale fishers are helping lead the way, alongside groups like Oceana.

And at the end of April, the governments of Cameroon, Ghana, and South Korea all endorsed the Global Charter for Fisheries Transparency at the Our Ocean conference. But more must be done.

The upcoming United Nations Ocean Conference is a prime opportunity for other governments around the world to follow suit and commit to greater transparency and accountability in global fishing.

That means requiring all vessels to keep tracking systems on at all times, cracking down on those who disappear at sea, and supporting programs that help fishers prove they’re following the rules.

We already have the tools. Platforms like Global Fishing Watch let anyone track fishing vessels in near-real time using satellite data. But to close the loopholes, we need governments to act.

Our oceans are not the Wild West. They are a shared resource – and a shared responsibility. By committing to transparency, we can protect marine ecosystems, ensure a level playing field for honest fishers, and give consumers confidence that their seafood is safe, legally caught, and honestly labeled.

The decisions made in Nice could shape the future of our oceans. We can’t lose sight of what’s at stake.

Ted Danson is an actor, advocate, and Oceana Board Member

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Representatives of the Maasai community in Longido receive a mock check from the Soil for the Future company as a payout to limit their grazing land in September 2024. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

By Kizito Makoye
DAR ES SALAAM, May 19 2025 (IPS)

As global demand for carbon credits rises, Tanzania has become a magnet for carbon offset projects. From Loliondo in Arusha to Kiteto in Manyara, foreign firms and conservation groups are looking for land to capture carbon and sell credits to polluting industries in the Global North. The growing interest in carbon trading has sparked hope, confusion, and concern— putting millions of hectares of village land and the livelihoods of people who depend on it at risk.

What is carbon and carbon trading?

Carbon is commonly referred to as pollution from oil, gas, and coal, whereas carbon trading is a global tool to fight climate change. It allows companies or countries that emit a lot of carbon to “offset” their emissions by paying for projects that reduce carbon elsewhere, like protecting forests or improving land use through sustainable grazing. So, big polluters sell their pollution to areas where there is low pollution and balance their books through it. Everybody has to decrease their carbon limit global warming to 1.5°C, global emissions need to be reduced by 45 percent by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050, according to the Paris Agreement.

Who are the main players? 

Tanzania has become a key player in the carbon market, thanks to its vast forests and efforts to conserve them. Foreign investors and carbon credit firms from Europe and North America partner with local NGOs to manage swathes of village land often used by Maasai communities for grazing. Major players include Soils for the Future Tanzania Ltd, backed by Volkswagen Climate Partners and The Nature Conservancy, active in Longido, Monduli, and Simanjiro districts.

How are carbon credit schemes regulated?

Tanzania’s carbon market is growing fast but lacks regulation. Backed by the government, foreign firms and conservation groups are luring local communities to use their land for carbon credit projects. In the Arusha and Manyara regions, such schemes increase, promising income, better infrastructure, and environmental benefits. But while investors call it a win-win, the reality on the ground is complicated.

What are communities agreeing to?

Most villagers don’t understand how carbon markets work. Many sign 30–40-year contracts without knowing what rights they’re giving up or what they’ll get in return. Villages usually get a one-time “signing fee”—sometimes called dowry money—that critics say leads to rushed, secretive agreements.

The contracts are in English— not Swahili— and often exclude women and youth from decision-making. In Loliondo, pastoralist leaders say they were asked to agree to carbon credit deals without clear information on how long the land would be locked and what would happen if terms changed.

What exactly does the deal entail?

Under the Longido Monduli rangelands carbon project, a conservation group called Soil for the Future Tanzania—which works to restore degraded rangelands and savannah ecosystems—is managing a deal on behalf of Volkswagen Climate Partners. The project spans 970,000 hectares and pays 59 villages between 40 and 130 million Tanzanian shillings (about USD 15,000–50,000) over a 40-year period, from January 2024 to December 2063, in exchange for carbon credits. In return, communities must limit activities such as grazing and burning grasslands, raising concerns among some residents about losing access to land they have used for generations.

Whom does the law protect?

Tanzania’s land laws recognize both statutory and customary ownership, but there are no clear rules for carbon trading—leaving rural communities exposed to exploitation.

Although the Village Land Act of 1999 protects customary tenure, problems arise when carbon offset contracts are signed without the free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC) of everyone affected.

Often, traditional grazing land is reclassified for conservation without compensation.

In Loliondo and Ngorongoro, where land disputes and evictions are rife, residents fear more land loss.

The contracts are often difficult to cancel and unclear about how benefits will be shared. With no national guidelines on transparency or accountability, communities are left in the dark.

Is carbon trading undermining Maasai traditions?

Traditional Maasai pastoralism depends on mobility—moving herds across vast rangelands for water and pasture. But carbon projects often enforce rotational grazing and land-use rules aimed at storing carbon, which can clash with pastoral survival strategies, especially during droughts.

Are villagers stakeholders or just bystanders?

Though marketed as “community-based,” many carbon projects sideline rural Tanzanians in decisions that affect their land for decades. The government backs carbon trading to boost revenue and conserve nature, but without clear policies, critics warn it could repeat old patterns of exploitation—this time under a green label.

What is the situation elsewhere?
Tanzania’s experience reflects a broader trend across Africa, where Indigenous communities are being drawn into carbon deals that may offer quick cash but raise lasting concerns about land rights, sovereignty, and justice.

Note: This feature is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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The aftermath of a Russian attack on the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv on July 8, 2024. Credit: Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital

By Ed Holt
BRATISLAVA, May 19 2025 (IPS)

The international community must take action to uphold international humanitarian law, say healthcare and rights advocates, as attacks on healthcare in war zones reached a record high last year.

A new report from the Safeguarding Health in Conflict Coalition (SHCC) released today (May 19) documented more than 3,600 attacks on doctors and health care workers, hospitals, and clinics in zones of armed conflict in 2024—up 15 percent from 2023 and 62 percent since 2022.

The report’s authors say attacks on healthcare in war zones are not only more numerous but are also more destructive and involve heavier weapons—there was a growing use of explosive weapons in attacks against healthcare, rising from 36 percent of incidents in 2022 to 48 percent in 2023. Perpetrator use of drones against health care facilities drove much of the increase, as their use nearly quadrupled, according to the report.

Meanwhile, more than 900 doctors were killed last year—a rise of 21 percent from 2023—and almost 500 were arrested. More than 100 were kidnapped.

However, the report suggests attacks on healthcare in war zones may be even more widespread, as the collection of data on violence is impeded by insecurity, communications blockages, and the reluctance of some entities to share data on violence.

It also says the rise in attacks has come alongside attempts by perpetrators to limit legal protections for health care and civilians in war.

It highlights how Israel has “sought to dilute legal requirements of precaution and proportionality during conflict” while “campaigns to delegitimize the International Criminal Court (ICC) are underway,” with US president Donald Trump imposing sanctions on ICC staff and their families for having charged Israelis with war crimes, Russia criminalizing cooperation with the ICC or any foreign court seeking to hold Russians to account, and other countries announcing plans to leave the ICC.

The authors say regimes around the world are increasingly flouting international human rights laws, and action must be taken to bring actors behind these attacks to justice or risk a proliferation of military targeting of healthcare.

Christina Wille, Director of Insight Insecurity, an SHCC member, told IPS that the international community has a role to play.

“International humanitarian law, which says that healthcare in conflict must be protected, is not being respected. The international community should come together to ensure that there is accountability for these attacks and the people responsible for them are brought to justice. But if nothing is done and this continues, other states may see the targeting of healthcare as a tactic that they can use in conflict without risk of censure or sanction and will go ahead with it,” Wille said.

While the report documented more countries last year reporting attacks on healthcare, the majority of recorded incidents occurred in a handful of states.

By far the largest number of attacks on health care—more than 1,300—took place in Gaza and the West Bank, but there were also hundreds of attacks in other countries that have seen brutal conflicts, including Ukraine (544), Lebanon (485), Myanmar (308), and Sudan (276), where there has been evidence of systematic targeting of local healthcare facilities and workers by attacking, or both attacking and opposing, forces.

The results of these attacks have been dire, not just in terms of the immediate casualties among healthcare workers and civilians from such strikes but also the knock-on effects on the local civilian population from the destruction of facilities, as in some cases even the most basic of medical services subsequently become unavailable.

The report points out that in Gaza, every hospital has been hit, and many multiple times, with dire impacts on their capacity to address the massive number of traumatic injuries, treatment for chronic and infectious disease, and safe childbirth.

“The health system in Gaza has collapsed. Hospitals and clinics have been completely destroyed, like the of the civilian infrastructure. Today, only 22 out of 36 hospitals are partially functioning, and that can mean only being able to treat a few patients a day. Most of the labs are not running, there is very little material available, the staff is exhausted, and some are still detained,” Simon Tyler, Executive Director of Doctors of the World, the UK chapter of the international human rights organization global Médecins du Monde network, told IPS.

A charity organization working in Gaza, Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP), said that devastating attacks on two hospitals – the European Gaza Hospital (EGH) and Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza—in the last week had worsened the situation.

“The attacks put the EGH out of service and increased the pressure on services at Nasser, as well as destroying parts of the hospital, including the burns unit. EGH was the only hospital in Gaza providing cancer services following the destruction of the Turkish Friendship Hospital in March,” MAP communications manager Max Slaughter told IPS.

Israeli forces have often claimed that hospitals in Gaza were being used as bases for Hamas military operations.

But the UN has said Israeli forces’ attacks on healthcare in Gaza are a war crime.

Doctors in Myanmar who spoke to IPS on condition of anonymity for security reasons said the intensified use of drones by government forces fighting rebel groups in the last 18 months “posed grave threats to the provision of humanitarian aid and healthcare services.”

“Deliberate attacks on healthcare facilities, including hospitals, rural health centers, and other related infrastructure, have resulted in severe damage to health facilities, injuries, fatalities, and, in some cases, permanent disabilities among healthcare workers,” one said.

The doctors added that a combination of people being afraid to travel and frequent displacement of healthcare service sites has significantly disrupted access to essential medical care, and drone attacks targeting group activities, such as the provision of humanitarian aid, hinder effective delivery by deterring gatherings of people and creating logistical challenges.

Meanwhile, the risk posed to humanitarian workers by these attacks has reduced the presence of organizations on the ground, diminishing aid availability for affected populations.

In Ukraine, the healthcare system has faced similar widespread destruction.

Earlier this month, Ukraine’s Health Ministry said that Russian forces had damaged or destroyed more than 2,300 medical infrastructure facilities since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

In some areas near the line, healthcare systems have all but disappeared, with people having to either rely on local aid groups and NGOs for basic care and essential medicines or travel long distances in difficult conditions to facilities that are still functioning.

But it is not hospitals that have come under attack, as Russian troops regularly target ambulances—since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, 116 ambulances have been damaged, 274 destroyed, and 80 seized.

But hospitals and clinics in areas far from the fighting have not been spared. In one of the worst attacks on healthcare since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital, one of the largest of its kind in Europe, was hit by a missile on July 8 last year. Two adults were killed and at least 34 people, including nine children, were injured.

Despite initial denials by the Kremlin that its forces had hit the hospital, evidence showed the building had been deliberately struck with a hypersonic missile.

Another problem faced in many conflict zones is how attacks on other infrastructure, such as energy facilities, are impacting healthcare.

Volodymyr Hryshko, Senior Legal Counsel with Ukrainian group Truth Hounds, told IPS more intense Russian targeting of energy infrastructure in 2024 had had a devastating impact on healthcare. In a survey by the group, 92 percent of doctors reported such attacks had experienced power cuts at work, and 66 percent said medical procedures had been affected. The attacks had led to deaths from oxygen deprivation as life support systems failed and staff at some hospitals were forced to work in complete blackouts.

“But the impact is not only immediate risk to patients but also long-term system degradation, staff burnout—reported by over 80 percent—and psychological trauma among both patients and healthcare providers,” he said.

However, despite the death and destruction caused by such attacks, the report shows they are increasing in number.

Wille said the reasons for this are varied and that not all strikes on medical facilities documented may be deliberate.

“Weapons may not be as accurate as believed, and heavy weapons can also have a ‘wide area’ effect—attackers may not have been aiming to hit a hospital, but the impact of the strike still damaged it,” she said.

However, she pointed out that militaries are aware they can gain an advantage in conflict by targeting healthcare systems.

“Health systems are often seen by conflict parties as a system that can help keep the enemy going—treating injuries, helping them recover, and providing a place for them to rest and recuperate.

“Attacks on health systems can also damage morale significantly because health facilities and workers supply the services the population, especially very young and old people, desperately need,” she explained.

But groups working to provide medical and humanitarian help in war zones believe the fact that the regimes behind these attacks are carrying them out with seeming impunity is fueling continued attacks on healthcare in war zones.

“The principle that civilians and aid workers should be protected is being violated time and again. In recent times, we’ve seen clinics bombed, convoys attacked, and our colleagues targeted simply for doing their job in Gaza, the West Bank, and Ukraine. We can no longer rely on or guarantee protection for our staff and services. Civilians, humanitarian workers, health workers, and infrastructure should never be targets. We firmly condemn all attacks on healthcare and call for independent investigation and accountability for the perpetrators,” said Tyler.

“The continued inaction of… some of the most powerful governments in the world in the face of the Israeli authorities’ deadly blockade is indefensible—and could be judged as complicity under international humanitarian law and human rights law. We must hold all responsible for violations accountable to ensure justice for victims, deter further violations, and prevent future escalations,” he added.

MAP’s Slaughter warned that Israel’s “… deliberate blockade of aid and continued attacks on healthcare, all with no real accountability or impunity, are setting a precedent that the international community will permit such atrocities to be committed with no recourse.”

The SHCC report calls for UN states to take action to ensure healthcare is protected in conflicts, including ending impunity by encouraging investigations, data sharing, prosecutions through the International Criminal Court and empowering monitoring bodies.

Wille admitted, though it may be difficult to get a powerful international consensus that would lead to such attacks being stopped, or at least significantly reduced.

“I have little optimism that governments can prevent such attacks in the current climate. When major powers that should uphold the rules-based international order instead question its legitimacy—and even erode the rule of law at home, as in the US—it becomes nearly impossible to build the international consensus needed to enforce those rules,” she said.

“Yet it remains essential to keep calling for these attacks to stop and for perpetrators to be held accountable because even a fractured international order can be repaired, and justice demands persistence,” she added.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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The world needs the UN, now more than ever. But we have also experienced firsthand how maddeningly inefficient and bureaucratic it can be. No wonder some critics want to defund it, the authors argue. Credit: United Nations

By Felix Dodds and Chris Spence
SAN FRANCISCO, California / APEX, North Carolina, US, May 16 2025 (IPS)

The United Nations has been called many things in its time:

• A champion of human rights.
• The world’s peacekeeper and provider of disaster relief.
• A leader on climate change, sustainable development, cutting poverty, and combating disease.
• The world’s single most important organization.

 

But also:

• Bureaucratic.
• Byzantine.
• Disorganized.
• Duplicative.
• Fragmented.
• Frustrating.

Which is it?

The correct answer is, probably both. In our opinion, the UN is essential. Its role over the past 80 years has been critical in so many ways. As we argue in our books, Heroes of Environmental Diplomacy (2022) and Environmental Lobbying at the United Nations (2025) the world needs the UN, now more than ever.

But we have also experienced firsthand how maddeningly inefficient and bureaucratic it can be. No wonder some critics want to defund it.

Unlike some previous efforts at UN reform that have petered out—often because governments and various UN entities could not agree on their implementation—this time the UN seems to have no choice but to adapt. For the first time in its history, funding is likely to fall. The years of growth are clearly over. Budgets will soon need to be cut. Already, funding shortfalls are starting to bite

One of the problems for the United Nations has been the expectations surrounding it. With every new global challenge—from decolonization to climate change—the organization’s mandate has grown.

The United Nations feels both too big and too small. After ongoing budgetary growth for the best part of 80 years, it is sufficiently big that many expect it to be able to deal with anything that comes its way. The UN system as a whole has revenue of more than US$74 billion—bigger than many countries. However, the UN’s regular (core) budget is relatively small: $3.72 billion for 2025. What’s more, it has generally only gone up by the cost of inflation for the last thirty years.

Where does the rest of the money go? A lot is dedicated to helping developing countries with their humanitarian, development, and environmental work. In addition, there is a peacekeeping budget that pays for UN peacekeeping forces. This budget is currently $5.6 billion.

Another expense relates to UN programmes focusing on specific topics, such as development (UNDP), environmental protection (UNEP), or humanitarian aid (UNHCR).

These programmes are funded through voluntary contributions from governments, and are managed through the specific UN programme’s dedicated governing bodies. UN agencies are also technically separate from the “core” UN; they select their own leaders and have their own governing bodies.

 

Cuts Are Coming

Together, these many UN entities undertake a lot of activities. They also cost a lot. Now, however, many governments are reducing their aid budgets and several, including the US, are making wholesale cuts to their UN funding. This means change is coming whether the organization likes it or not.

Unlike some previous efforts at UN reform that have petered out—often because governments and various UN entities could not agree on their implementation—this time the UN seems to have no choice but to adapt. For the first time in its history, funding is likely to fall. The years of growth are clearly over. Budgets will soon need to be cut. Already, funding shortfalls are starting to bite.

UN member states (that is, governments) are assessed for annual UN “contributions” based on a formula that considers their national income and various other factors. But what if governments don’t pay what they owe?

By April 30, 2025, unpaid “assessments” (money owed to the UN by individual countries) stood at US$2.4 billion, with the US owing $1.5 billion, China around $600 million, and Russia more than $70 million. On top of that, the peacekeeping budget was $2.7 billion in arrears. In 2024, 41 countries did not pay their mandated contributions.

In March 2025, UN Secretary-General António Guterres launched “UN80”, a review that seeks to make sure the institution continues to be fit-for-purpose as it looks towards a financially-straightened future. So far, everything seems to be on the table: his review is examining operational efficiency, how the organization’s key tasks or missions are implemented, and major structural reforms.

The Secretary-General has acknowledged criticism about major overlaps between UN agencies and programmes, as well as inefficiencies, spiraling costs, fragmentation, outdated working methods, and the rapid growth in high-level managerial and executive jobs within the system.

He is considering major changes, such as merging multiple departments, agencies and groups into a much smaller number that would each cover a major area like Peace and Security, Humanitarian Affairs, Human Rights, and Sustainable Development.

Currently, many entities have overlapping responsibilities in each of these areas and there are literally dozens of different groups active in each one.

Such mergers seem sensible and long overdue. Internally, it will likely cause a lot of anguish and stress among staff, since it will certainly result in layoffs. This must be undertaken with a pro-staff approach; many who work for the UN have devoted their lives to the organization, and any staff changes should try to respect their service.

Sadly, the cuts in funding mean a certain level of job losses are inevitable. That said, we believe it is far better for the UN to take on the challenge intentionally and with the clear goal of improving the organization’s efficiency and impact, than for it to adopt a “defensive” posture and resist change while funding falls anyway.

Are there ways some cuts could be offset by finding additional ways to fund the UN and its various activities? While these are unlikely in the short term, it is worth actively considering what new income streams might be possible and how they could play a role in funding new or existing mandates. In future, any new activity or mandate being considered by the UN should certainly include a clearly-funded budget.

 

A Sustainable United Nations?

A major lens we would like to see applied to any reform is judging the UN’s activities by its areas of comparative advantage. What are activities the UN does better than anyone else? Conversely, in what areas does the UN underperform, or even duplicate, others? Are there areas the UN adds so little value that it should exit altogether? UN leadership will need to be clear-eyed about the realities of this as they look at the changes needed.

One area in which we believe the UN excels is in coordinating international action on topics that go beyond national boundaries. This includes sustainable development and major environmental crises like climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss. As we argue in our books and previous articles, the UN’s convening power has made a huge difference in trying to tackle these complex, global challenges.

Even here, however, improvements can be made. For instance, might it be possible to consolidate the many UN entities dealing with issues of sustainable development and the environment? Currently, there are several dozen, including DESA, FAO, IFAD, UNDRR, UNDP, UNESCO, UN-Habitat, UNIDO, and many others.

At this point, it may be easier for the UN Secretary-General to start by reforming the UN secretariats and programmes rather than the UN “agencies” (such as FAO, ILO, UNESCO, and WHO). This is because UN agencies often have wider mandates, more complex structures, greater autonomy, and longstanding support from vested interests. So, it may be more practical to start with parts of the system that can be easier to change and rationalize.

In addition to potential consolidation, are there savings to be had by shifting to lower cost centers? This could include building up UN headquarters in places like Nairobi, where UNEP and UN-Habitat are located, and which is more affordable than, say, Geneva or New York.

Shifting programmatic work to the UN regional commission headquarters in places like Chile, Ethiopia, and Thailand may also save money. In Europe, it may be worth considering whether there are less expensive options than Geneva or Paris (both in the top ten cities globally for costs), compared with, say, Bonn, where the UN’s climate secretariat, the UN Convention to Combat Desertification and some smaller UN bodies such as UN Volunteers, are located.

Even within specific areas like the UN’s climate change work, there are multiple mandates, overlaps, and ongoing questions. Should the UN’s climate secretariat in Bonn be brought under the umbrella of the UN Environment Programme, for instance?

The UNFCCC has a policy-making mandate, but can the scope and scale of the UN negotiations on climate change be pared back, especially now we are supposed to be largely finished with negotiations and focused on implementation?

For instance, could we change how the annual UN climate summits (also known as “COPs”) are organized, so that the “Blue Zone”, which is the UN-controlled area set aside for diplomatic negotiations, incorporates the Action Agenda of Implementation, a voluntary initiative launched in 2021 that includes a broader group of stakeholders. This might be more inclusive, and could help us move away from the technical, government-to-government negotiations that we are supposed to have largely concluded by now.

The UN climate treaty (UNFCCC) is also the only so-called “Rio” treaty (the others deal with biodiversity and desertification) not under UNEP’s purview. Bringing the UNFCCC under UNEP would enable better coordination between the Rio Conventions and move towards the clustering of environmental conventions. This was actually proposed as far back as the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development.

UNEP has prior experience in working to better coordinate among different environmental treaties: it oversaw the clustering of the various chemical-related conventions and the beginning of the clustering of the biodiversity-related treaties, too. If UNEP was empowered to coordinate the chemicals, biodiversity and climate conventions, it could save funds and ensure better and more effective delivery.

Elsewhere, what about merging UNAIDS (the UN program on HIV/AIDS) within a large body, like the World Health Organization or UN Development Programme? A fit with the WHO seems particularly logical to us. Should UN Women and the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) also join together? Again, this may bring internal difficulties, but in times of financial duress it seems worthy of consideration.

The idea of better coordination between UNEP and UN-Habitat on sustainable urban development also seems rational. Could this be taken a step further into a merger? UN-Habitat was once part of UNDP, but nowadays it focuses a lot on sustainable development at the local level. This is an important task, but can it have the impact it needs as a smallish, standalone programme, or would it be better off inside a bigger entity?

 

Making the SDGs Sustainable

Although this review doesn’t seem to be focused on the bodies that govern UN entities, we would like to see a review in this area. Perhaps the new UN Secretary-General, who is due to be named in 2026 and start work in 2027, could look at these bodies as a part of a high-level panel? Such an outcome could be part of the review of the Sustainable Development Agenda, which is slated to start in 2027 in the lead-up to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Summit in 2030.

There are also questions to be asked about whether the UN High-Level Political Forum is fit for purpose? As the UN’s chief platform for monitoring and assessing implementation of the SDGs, the HLPF seems to have lost political support over the past few years.

In part, this is because its policymaking is predominantly done before the “main event” in July, meaning stakeholders have great difficulty attending and engaging with government delegates while the detailed work is being done.

Before the HLPF was established in 2013, the previous UN body responsible for sustainable development was the UN Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD). Its preparatory policymaking occurred over two weeks every February or March, before it met again in April, May, or June to finalize policy. It had an approach of reviewing the implementation and the policy year, centered on developing recommendations and strategies to overcome challenges.

Perhaps this model might be a better one? Or perhaps a Council of the UN General Assembly similar to the Human Rights Council should be considered? This may be too “in the weeds” for the Secretary-General’s UN80 review to take on, but the process of reviewing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in the coming years should certainly look at these two options.

In the meantime, we hope the UN Secretary-General will use this moment of financial duress as an opportunity to revitalize the organization, take the hard decisions needed, and leave the UN leaner, more effective, and more fit-for-purpose when he departs in late 2026 than when he took on the role back in 2017. In this increasingly complex and insecure world, a leaner, more focused and politically-supported UN can and should take a leading role not only in addressing key challenges in the years ahead, but in pursuing its long-term vision of a more sustainable, just and fair world for all.

 

Prof. Felix Dodds and Chris Spence have participated in UN negotiations on the environment and sustainable development since the 1990s. They co-edited Heroes of Environmental Diplomacy: Profiles in Courage (Routledge, 2022). Their next book, Environmental Lobbying at the United Nations: A Guide to Protecting Our Planet, is scheduled for release in June 2025.

Excerpt:

While it may be difficult and painful, the UN Secretary-General is right to embrace change, believe Prof. Felix Dodds and Chris Spence

Credit: Unsplash/Kel Avelino

By Maximilian Malawista
NEW YORK, May 16 2025 (IPS)

The Gulf’s most powerful weapon isn’t a military, a United Nations (UN) Security Council seat, or a legacy of global diplomacy. Choosing multilateralism and mega-projects over militaries and old-world diplomacy, they are tipping the scale without firing a single shot. Their approach is more modern, where money, alliances, and an active vision for the future are the weapon of choice.

The UN’s 2030 Agenda is a framework for redefining global leadership, and it seems like the Gulf nations are stepping into it full force. As global policy moves towards renewable energy and farther away from fossil fuels, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Kuwait are the leading countries in global climate reform. Through their plans, from Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 to Kuwait’s Vision 2035, these Gulf states are not looking to rely on oil: they are actively diversifying their economies for the world’s market, and fast. They do this by promoting initiatives which support SDG 7: affordable and clean energy, SDG 13: climate action, and SDG 8: decent work and economic growth, setting the stage for a renewable, efficient, and clean world. The Gulf is showing that they don’t just want to escape the “resource curse” but rather redesign global leadership in its entirety.

While Gulf nations are actively diversifying, they are still heavily reliant on oil as a main driver in their economies. Saudi Arabia sees 40 percent of its 1.068 trillion USD GDP to be solely oil, the UAE sees 30 percent of their 514.1 billion USD GDP, Qatar follows with oil accounting for around 60 percent of their 213 billion USD GDP, and Kuwait at 50 percent of their 163.7 billion USD GDP. Not only is oil their main driver, but it is also their main global influence, as 21 percent of the world’s oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a shared border with the UAE.

Without Gulf oil, the world’s energy prices would skyrocket, easily putting many global powers into recessions. Powers like Europe, China, South Korea, Japan, the U.S., and India all rely on the Gulf for their energy needs, placing most of their oil dependence on the Gulf above other oil exporters.

However, with actions like the Paris Agreement, the Global Stocktake, and COP28, countries that have historically been big oil importers are now starting to shift towards renewable energy sources, hoping to eventually completely shift out of oil and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. This means reducing oil emissions by 43% by 2030, a huge hit to Gulf economies if they don’t pivot fast. A move away from oil means the crippling of the Gulf economies, but this is what Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait are prepared for.

In cities like Dubai, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Jeddah, Doha, and Kuwait City, the Gulf is now home to various desert mirages, all of which are putting their 2030 visions above all. Not only are they tourist destinations for the desert traveler, but home to businessmen and billionaire elites. The Gulf achieves this by making their cities expat-friendly. The UAE has topped the leaderboards with #1 in the world for movers, with Qatar at #3, and Saudi Arabia at #10, breaking the narrative of being strict for foreigners.

Each nation has strived to create a connectedness within their cities, using the English language for most if not all business transactions, and teaching it alongside or even without Arabic, depending on the type of schooling. 92 percent of Dubai’s population are expats, followed by Doha at 90 percent, Abu Dhabi at 80 percent, Kuwait City at 68 percent, Jeddah at 58 percent, and Riyadh at 52 percent. None of the main Gulf cities are Arab majorities nor majority Arabic-speaking, they are people from diverse backgrounds and foreign countries: numbers unseen anywhere else in the world.

Credit: Unsplash/Oskars Sylwan

A Challenge to the West:

The most stable economic expansion, zero crime, the geographic crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa, and allied with virtually the whole world, the Gulf has seen a surge in global mediations, sovereign wealth deposits, and UN activity at a faster rate than anywhere else.

Just this March, peace talks between the United States and Russia, amidst the Russia-Ukraine war, took place in Riyadh, highlighting its status as a close ally for both nations.

Ali Shihabi, a retired Saudi banker, now author and commentator, said: “I don’t think there’s another place where the leader has such a good personal relationship with both Trump and Putin.”

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Slam, or MBS, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, has pushed for a modernization of Saudi Arabia, moving the kingdom away from rigid cultural traditions in daily life, and toward a more globally welcoming cosmopolitan society – a direction which has been echoed all throughout the Gulf; aligning with a broader diplomatic vision and values on the global stage.

Similarly, Qatar has been heading mediations between the Israel-Palestine conflict, connecting Hamas and the West, playing a crucial role in hostage negotiations, ceasefire & de-escalation talks, pressure for acceptance of humanitarian aid, and a coordinator in the financial support for Palestine’s reconstruction.

The rest of the Gulf has also seen increasing diplomatic mediation efforts. Saudi Arabia managed mediation between warring factions in Sudan, creating room for U.S. dialogue. Culminating in 2020, Qatar had hosted Taliban-US negotiations, by being the neutral ground where the Taliban’s political office was stationed, leading to an agreement for the withdrawal of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Lebanon’s political gridlock was alleviated through mediation and economic support efforts by Qatar, facilitating the election of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon. Saudi Arabia arranged the re-entry of Syria into the Arab League by initiating talks and promoting regional stability. The UAE, behind closed doors, has opened communication channels between Pakistan and India, looking to reduce tension in the Kashmir region. Kuwait also led successful mediation efforts during the Gulf crisis, which resolved the most serious internal dispute in the history of the GCC.

Roger Carstens, the United States Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, said in 2023: “What I can say is that Qatar is playing a very strong and important role as an intermediary. There are times when, of course, the United States does not really have entrée into some of the negotiating groups, and this is a case where Qatar has really been able to bring its gravitas in the region to bear.”

This role which Qatar has, as an Islamic and Arabic-speaking Middle Eastern nation but also a wealthy, trusted, connected member of the Western world, has allowed its intermediary status, one which other Gulf nations are also creating space for.

The Gulf displays itself as not only an ally to the West, but a contender in its model. The Gulf has proved its ability in filling diplomatic vacuums, exhibiting that the power of mediation is not exclusive to the West, while actively creating global financial and innovation hubs, featuring multinational HQs, and UN offices in cities that are nothing short of futuristic desert mirages – while much of the West crumbles under crippling and dated infrastructure.

This could be a signal to the West for change, perhaps a switch in its focus. By actively investing in markets outside of oil, the Gulf is successfully creating civilizations open to the world, and far more welcoming than the traditional Western city, by just about every metric, whether you look at the US. News, or urban safety and cleanliness benchmarks, or the IMD Smart City Index: the Gulf is smashing the charts. From finance and AI to innovation, travel, diplomacy, and inclusivity, the Gulf is actively surpassing Western metropolises, becoming the go-to global destination of choice.

Maximilian Malawista is a student at the University of Buffalo where he majors in Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE), Global Affairs, and English.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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New mangroves have been created in various areas to reduce climate change risks in Badamtoli village of Dakop upazila (sub-district) of Khulna district. Credit: Rafiqul Islam Montu/IPS

By Rafiqul Islam Montu
SHYAMNAGAR, Bangladesh , May 16 2025 (IPS)

Golenur Begum has faced 12 cyclones in her life. As a child, she witnessed her father’s house destroyed, and as an adult, she watched her home smashed. Saltwater brought by the tidal surges that accompanied the cyclones wrecked their farms and livelihoods.  And with climate change, these impacts are becoming more intense and frequent.

“Sixteen years ago, in 2009, my house was washed away by Cyclone Aila. At first, we sheltered on a raised dirt road near our house. After the road was submerged, we rushed to a shelter two kilometers from the village to save our lives. The next day, when we returned to the village, we saw that many more houses had been destroyed. Shrimp farms, vegetable fields, chicken farms, and ponds submerged in salt water,” Golenur (48), who lives in Sinhartoli village, remembers.

She is not alone. Sahara Begum (32), Rokeya Begum (45), and Anguri Bibi (44), from the same village, spoke of the same crisis.

A new mangrove in front of Golenur Begum’s house in Singhahartali village of Shyamnagar upazila (sub-district) of Satkhira district. Credit: Rafiqul Islam Montu/IPS

 

Neelima Mandal points to the mangrove in front of her house in Chunkuri village of Shyamnagar upazila (sub-district) of Satkhira district. Credit: Rafiqul Islam Montu/IPS

Climate-vulnerable Sinharatoli village is part of Munshiganj Union of Shyamnagar Upazila (sub-district) in the Satkhira district in southwestern Bangladesh. The Malanch River flows past the village.

On the other side of the river is the World Heritage Sundarbans—a mangrove forest area in the Ganges Delta formed by the confluence of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna Rivers in the Bay of Bengal.

Most of the people in the villages along the Malanch River lost their livelihoods and homes due to Cyclone Aila. Not only Aila—Golenur has faced 12 cyclones.

Neelima Mandal, 40, of Chunkuri village, a village adjacent to the Sundarbans, says, “Due to frequent cyclones, the embankments on the riverbank collapsed. The tidal water of the Malanch River used to enter our houses directly. As a result, both our livelihoods and lives were in crisis.”

The southwestern coast of Bangladesh is facing many crises due to climate change. The people of this region are very familiar with the effects of tides, cyclones, and salinity. They survive by adapting to these dangers. But, despite their resilience, there are not enough strong embankments in this region. Although embankments were built in the 1960s, they are mostly weak. If cyclones become more intense with a changing climate, people’s lives will be even more affected.

New mangroves protect houses at risk of climate change on the embankment in Chunkuri village of Shyamnagar upazila (sub-district) of Satkhira district. Credit: Rafiqul Islam Montu/IPS

 

What kind of benefits are the villagers getting from the newly created mangrove forest? This graph shows the results of the opinions gathered from 100 people from villages near the Sundarbans. Graph: Rafiqul Islam Montu/IPS

Despite the mangrove-rich Sundarbans, which include four enlisted and protected areas by UNESCO, which should protect them, the southwestern coastal districts of Bangladesh. The Sundarbans themselves are also facing a crisis due to frequent cyclones. The 2007 cyclone Sidr caused extensive damage, which took several years to recover from. According to a study by the Change Initiative, dense forest covered 94.2 percent of the Sundarbans in 1973. In 2024, it had decreased to 91.5 percent. The people of this region face extreme events during the cyclone season when the tide height reaches up to 3 meters (10 feet).

Mangrove Wall for Vulnerable Communities

In 2013 the women in this community began building a mangrove wall—a sign that they were not going to let the climate dictate their future.

The wall now stands where the water from the storm surge entered Golenur’s house during Cyclone Sidr in 2007 and Cyclone Aila in 2009. Now she does not have to worry about her livelihood and home as much. Apart from protection from natural hazards, the forest provides her with many other economic benefits.

“When we started planting mangrove seedlings here, the entire area was devoid of trees. Tidal water once submerged the area. In a few years, a mangrove forest has formed in the vacant space. More than 500 people from about 100 houses in the village are now free from natural hazards,” says Golenur.

A mangrove safety wall now also covers Chunkuri village, which was similarly vulnerable. The villagers take care of the mangroves and benefit from them.

Many women in Banishanta village of Dakop upazila (sub-district) of Khulna district are happy and financially better off after starting a mangrove nursery. Credit: Rafiqul Islam Montu/IPS

 

Abandoned seeds floating from the Sundarbans are processed into seedlings in the nursery at Namita Mondal’s nursery in Dhangmari village of Dakop upazila (sub-district) of Khulna district. Credit: Rafiqul Islam Montu/IPS

“Mangroves help us secure our livelihood. We can collect fodder for our cattle from the forest. Mangroves help us reduce heat,” added Sabitri Mondal, a resident of Chunkuri village.

Various organizations, including the Bangladesh Resource Council of Indigenous Knowledge (BARCIK), Bangladesh Environment and Development Society (BEDS), and Friendship, are working to restore mangroves in different parts of Khulna, Satkhira, and Bagerhat districts.

Since 2008, BARCIK has planted 1,800 mangrove trees in coastal villages, including Koikhali, Burigoalini, Munshiganj, Gabura, Padmapukur, and Atulia in the Shyamnagar upazila of Satkhira. BEDS has planted over one million mangrove saplings in 146.55 hectares of land in Shyamnagar, Satkhira, and Dakop, Khulna, since 2013.

Maksudur Rahman, CEO of BEDS, says, ‘To save mangroves, we need to involve the local community. If we can provide alternative livelihoods to the local community, the mangroves will also be saved and the people will be protected. The initiative that we have been continuing since 2013 is already reaping the benefits of the community.’

Abandoned seeds are a source of livelihood

“The mangrove nursery is now the driving force of my family. The income from the nursery is what keeps my family going. My husband and I no longer have to go to the risky Sundarbans to catch fish and crabs. Alternative livelihoods have made my life safer,’ said Namita Mandal of Dhangmari village in Dakop upazila of Khulna district.

Women plant mangrove seedlings in Dakop upazila (sub-district) of Khulna district. Credit: Rafiqul Islam Montu/IPS

 

Namita Mandal maintains a mangrove nursery in Dhangmari village in Dakop upazila (sub-district) of Khulna district. Credit: Rafiqul Islam Montu/IPS

The mangrove seeds are a source of livelihood for women in villages near the Sundarbans. Once upon a time, families used to wait for seeds and leaves that floated from the Sundarbans to cook. They would dry them and save them for cooking. But many women like Namita have started nurseries with those abandoned seeds. Seedlings are being grown in the nursery from the seeds and new mangroves are being formed from those seedlings. Many more women in villages near the Sundarbans have chosen mangrove nurseries as a source of livelihood.

Seedlings suitable for mangroves are grown in the nursery. The tree species include keora (Sonneratia apetala), baen (Avicennia alba), gewa (Excoecaria agallocha), khulshi (Aegiceras corniculatum), kankra (Bruguiera gymnorrhiza), golpata (Nypa fruticans), and goran (Ceriops decandra). The seeds of these trees float down from the Sundarbans.

Her income from the nursery has increased significantly in the past few years. ‘I sold seedlings worth 50,000 taka ($426) in a year. My nursery has expanded. The number of employees has increased. In 2023, I sold seedlings worth about 4 lakh taka ($3,407) from my nursery to some clients, including the Bangladesh Forest Department, international NGO BRAC, and BEDS,’ added Namita.

Rakibul Hasan Siddiqui, Associate Professor at the Institute of Integrated Studies on Sundarbans Coastal Ecosystem, Khulna University, said, ‘The Sundarbans and its surrounding settlements are severely affected by rising sea levels and frequent cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. Sundarbans Restoration is helping to protect coastal residents from any kind of natural disaster.”
Note: This feature is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.

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IPS UN Bureau, IPS UN Bureau Report, Bangladesh, Climate Change Justice, Climate Justice

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Excerpt:

Golenur Begum watched her house being washed away twice by powerful storms that hit the coastal village of Sinharatoli in southwestern Bangladesh. Now the women from her village and others are climate-proofing their communities by planting mangroves.

UNICEF found downward trends in overall child well-being when it comes to physical and mental health, and academic performance. Credit: UNICEF/Ezequiel Becerra

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, May 16 2025 (IPS)

Due to the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, millions of children, particularly in some of the world’s wealthiest countries, experienced declines in their overall health and academic performances.

On May 13, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) issued a report detailing global downturns in child wellbeing in the 2020s. Titled Report Card 19: Child Wellbeing in an Unpredictable World, the report compares data from studies conducted in 2018 and 2022, with children from across 43 countries in the European Union and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). There were six markers of wellbeing that were studied: life satisfaction, suicide rates, child mortality, obesity, academic success, and social skills.

Over the past 25 years, these countries have noted significant upturns in child wellbeing, marked by decreased rates of suicide and child mortality, as well as increased rates of school completion. Despite this, rates of child wellbeing have begun to slip in the past five years due to th COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating a host of social inequities, as well as heightened risks brought on by climate shocks and world conflicts.

According to the report, the top three countries that showed the lowest rates of decline remained the same from 2018 to 2022, being the Netherlands, Denmark, and France. Mexico, Türkiye, and Chile were found to have experienced the highest rates of decline in child wellbeing. Other nations with highly developed economies, such as South Korea and Japan, reported gains in academic performance but significant losses in mental wellbeing.

Due to the widespread global shutdowns of schools during the COVID-19 pandemic, children around the world are estimated to have lost, on average, about 7 months to a year of progress in their academic careers. Although many schools attempted to supplement the absence of an in-person curriculum with remote learning, it was largely unsuccessful.

According to a study from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), many schools around the world reported lower scores on standardized tests compared to pre-pandemic years. Additionally, many students and teachers reported decreased academic performance due to increased rates of disorganization, a lack of motivation, as well as jarring lifestyle changes.

Declines in academic performance can also be attributed to a lack of essential tools such as internet access, as well as being in environments that are not conducive to learning, such as noisy or overcrowded households. Additionally, the pandemic spurred increased rates of electronics usage and decreased rates of interaction with peers, which led to impairments in social development, fewer hours of sleep, depression, anxiety, and attention deficits.

Due to the prolonged state of social isolation, many of these impacts can still be seen in children and young adults in the present day. In the 43 countries that were surveyed, out of 17.2 million 15 year-old children still in school, 8.4 million were determined to be not functionally literate and numerate. This indicates that roughly half of this age group has little to no understanding of basic reading, writing, and math skills. Illiteracy has increased the most in Bulgaria, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cyprus, and Mexico. Humanitarian organizations have expressed concern that these children will be largely unprepared for most sectors of their local economies.

The UNICEF report underscores that children from “disadvantaged” families, such as those experiencing poverty, disability, food insecurity, disease, conflicts, and violence, are disproportionately affected.

“Prior to the pandemic, children were already struggling on multiple fronts, and didn’t have access to adequate support – even in wealthy countries,” said UNICEF Innocenti Director, Bo Viktor Nylund. In the wake of the pandemic, the data set a worrying benchmark for children’s wellbeing, especially for children from disadvantaged backgrounds,” Nylund added.

Additionally, nations around the world have reported significant declines in mental health in the wake of the pandemic. Out of the 32 countries that yielded available data in mental health, 14 reported decreased rates of life satisfaction. In nearly all of the countries that experienced declines in this field, girls were found to have less life satisfaction than boys.

Surprisingly, socioeconomic status was found to have a relatively weak correlation with life satisfaction. According to UNICEF, decreased life satisfaction can be attributed to a lack of exercise, increased social media use, and worsened peer relationships, all of which have been exacerbated by the pandemic.

Additionally, 17 countries reported increased rates of suicide. Japan, South Korea, and Türkiye reported the largest increases in suicide rates. Humanitarian organizations also expressed concern of increased rates of suicide among small populations in Iceland and Malta, indicating widespread instability in these regions.

On the other hand, the report notes that in 2018, it was estimated that roughly 2 in every 1,000 children died in their youth. This figure has halved in 2022, dropping to only 1 out of every 1,000 children. Overall, rates of child mortality have been dropping for decades, with 33 out of 43 countries studied reporting vast decreases in child deaths.

Despite these gains, UNICEF found that rates of child overweightness and obesity have been on the rise following the pandemic. The biggest declines in physical health have been observed in Chile, Colombia, and the United States. In wealthy countries, children have been recorded to have higher rates of obesity, while food insecurity plagues the youth of lower income countries.

Increased rates of obesity and overweightness have been attributed to increased worldwide reliance on digital technology and decreased physical exercise. Use of digital technology is linked with consumption of nutritionally poor foods and the use of harmful cosmetic products that cause hormonal and reproductive issues. Additionally, wealthier countries face higher rates of obesity as unhealthy diets are associated with people who work more hours a week, on average.

“The extent of the challenges children are facing means we need a coherent, holistic, whole-of-childhood approach that addresses their needs at every stage of their lives,” said Nylund.

UNICEF has urged local governments to adopt programs that promote access to healthier food options, offer mental health services, and establish supplemental learning programs that ensure that all young people maintain the necessary skills for career success. Furthermore, it is imperative that these programs target the most vulnerable populations, such as disabled children or those that are living in protracted crises, and supply them with the essential services they will need to be self-sufficient.

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Deportee from the U.S., Aasis Subedi, with his father, Narayan Kumar Subedi. Credit: Diwash Gahatraj/IPS

By Diwash Gahatraj
JHAPA, Nepal, May 16 2025 (IPS)

Sitting in his small hut in the Beldangi refugee camp in Jhapa district, Nepal, Narayan Kumar Subedi feels relieved that his son, Aasis Subedi, is safe.

Aasis is one of four United States deportees who were the subject of Nepal’s Supreme Court landmark ruling on April 24, which directed the government not to deport four Bhutanese refugees who entered Nepal in March of this year after being disowned by Bhutan. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deported the four after they had lived in various parts of the United States for nearly a decade.

The Apex body ordered that “Aasis Subedi, Santosh Darji, Roshan Tamang, and Ashok Gurung should not remain in police custody. Instead, they should be housed in the Bhutanese refugee camps in eastern Nepal, where they lived before moving to the United States.” The ruling came in response to a habeas corpus petition filed by Narayan, father of Aasis.

“It was a mixed feeling that night when my son and two other deported men—Santosh and Roshan—came to my house. I was thrilled to see my son after ten years but was equally sad that he was escaping like a stateless homeless person,” says the 55-year-old.

On March 27, the morning after their deportation, Nepali immigration authorities arrested the three men for entering the country without visas. The fourth refugee, Ashok Gurung, was detained separately in Bahundangi, a village on the Indo-Nepal border, two days later.

The Department of Immigration investigated their case for nearly a month while they remained in police custody until the country’s highest court granted them a second chance to live in Nepal. However, this decision will be reviewed after 60 days. Until then, the four men must remain within the camp premises and report to the local police station once a week, adds Narayan.

The four men have found themselves in legal and diplomatic limbo after Bhutan refused to accept them back. Now sheltered in Nepal’s refugee camps under a temporary court order, their case highlights the ongoing crisis of statelessness among the Lhotshampa community and exposes the fragile nature of third-country resettlement solutions.

Cruel Connection

Aasis Subedi photographed with his wife while in the United States.

The four men in their mid-thirties—Aasis, Santosh, Roshan, and Ashok—share a bitter connection of multiple displacements and statelessness.

They belong to the Bhutanese Lhotshampa community, a Nepali-speaking ethnic group that settled in southern Bhutan. The Lhotshampas (“southerners” in Bhutan’s Dzongkha language) migrated to Bhutan in the late 19th and early 20th centuries during the reign of King Ugyen Wangchuck, encouraged to develop the sparsely populated southern lowlands.

Initially granted citizenship in the 1950s and 1970s, the status of Lhotshampas changed when Bhutan introduced the “One Nation, One People” policy in the late 1980s. The policy promoted Drukpa cultural norms, which included mandatory dress codes and language use, resulting in protests from Lhotshampas who felt marginalized.

The government subsequently revoked citizenship for many Lhotshampas, labeling them “illegal immigrants.” Between 1990 and 1993, persecution and mass arrests forced over 100,000 Lhotshampas to flee—a situation many consider ethnic cleansing. Most ended up in refugee camps in eastern Nepal.

A few decades ago, the families of the four deported individuals also came to Nepal as expelled citizens of Bhutan, and they lived as refugees in the camps until a decade ago, when they became part of a third-country resettlement program.

After years of unsuccessful attempts to return to Bhutan through numerous petitions to the king and internal organizations, as well as appeals for help from nations like India and Nepal, the refugees’ hopes for repatriation dimmed.

A turning point came in 2007 when the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) launched a third-country resettlement program, offering the displaced Bhutanese both a ray of hope and a path to citizenship elsewhere. By 2019, more than 113,500 refugees had relocated to eight different countries, with the majority settling in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Approximately 96,000 Bhutanese resettled in the United States.

Following the resettlement program, only two of the original seven refugee camps—Beldangi and Pathri in Jhapa district—remain operational, housing around 6,300 residents. These individuals either declined third-country resettlement in the hope of returning to their homeland, Bhutan, or missed the opportunity due to a lack of valid documentation.

Now, the four men have rejoined camp life. All four had U.S. Green Cards—despite this, the Trump administration deported them. Officials suspected them of criminal acts. Some had finished long jail terms. Then ICE took them for deportation. After days in custody, they were taken to Paro, Bhutan, via New Delhi.

At Paro Airport, Bhutanese officials interrogated them but refused to recognize them as citizens. Authorities escorted them out through the Phuentsholing-Jaigaon border. Each received INR 30,000 (about USD 350).

“With nowhere to go, my son and the others decided to come to Nepal. They had no documents to show at the border, so they had to cross illegally with help from an Indian fixer,” explains Narayan.

Bhutan’s refusal to recognize the deportees as citizens has resulted in a diplomatic impasse between the two Himalayan countries. 

“The order from the Supreme Court of Nepal to stop deportation gives these men temporary relief but doesn’t solve the bigger problem,” said Dr. Gopal Krishna Siwakoti, President of INHURED International, a human rights organization. “The court only directed the government to finish its investigation within 60 days, leaving their future uncertain after that period.”

“Nobody seems to have clear answers in this complex situation,” Siwakoti noted, describing it as a “bureaucratic black hole.”

“We had hoped the Supreme Court would direct the government to start diplomatic talks with Bhutan, India, and the USA at the same time, considering these men were essentially made stateless and moved between countries against their will. Unfortunately, the issue wasn’t mentioned in the ruling,” Siwakoti added.

So far, America has deported 24 Bhutanese refugees. Besides the four men in Nepal, there are no official records on the whereabouts of the others.

United States Travel Ban

Bhutan, known for promoting the Gross National Happiness Index, has traditionally maintained favorable diplomatic relations with the United States. However, since early this year,  Bhutan has been included in a draft “Red List” proposed by the United States government.

This list suggested a complete travel ban for citizens of certain countries, including Bhutan, due to concerns over national security and irregular migration patterns. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security reported a 37 percent increase in visa violations. Reportedly, over 200 Bhutanese nationals were found to be residing illegally in the United States between 2013 and 2022.

This policy shift appears to have been influenced in part by the unresolved issue of Bhutanese refugees. Sivakoti, a long-time advocate for resolving the Bhutanese refugee crisis, stated, “We understand that the United States administration had discussions with the Bhutanese government prior to the deportations. The United States presented documentation showing that while these individuals had refugee status in Nepal, their country of origin was Bhutan.”

On this basis, the United States contended that Bhutan should assume responsibility for these people. Bhutan, however, remained reluctant.

“The U.S. administration then took strict action and placed Bhutan in the ‘red zone.’ After such a move by the United States, Bhutan hesitated and was forced to evacuate these refugees,” Siwakoti said in an interview with Sethopathi, a Nepali news outlet.

Meanwhile, the Bhutanese government has reportedly requested a review of this decision, asserting that their citizens do not pose a significant security threat. As of now, the draft travel ban has not been officially implemented.

Meanwhile, the future looks uncertain for the four men stuck in the Beldangi camp and others who may face deportation in the coming days. Sivakoti says, “The complex legal and immigration challenges surrounding their cases make it unlikely that any country would accept them.”

“Today, resettlement opportunities have shrunk worldwide. There might be a small chance through family or institutional sponsorship in another country, but even that requires proper documents—like a refugee registration card or a travel document—which are nearly impossible to get now or anytime soon.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Credit: Zorana Jevtic/Reuters via Gallo Images

By Inés M. Pousadela
MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, May 16 2025 (IPS)

Three catastrophic events in the Balkans have sparked powerful movements for systemic change. A train collision that killed 57 people in Greece, a nightclub fire that claimed 59 young lives in North Macedonia and a collapsed railway station roof that left 15 dead in Serbia have ignited sustained anti-corruption protests in all three countries. These weren’t random tragedies but the culmination of systemic failure – neglected safety regulations, illegally issued permits and compromised oversight – with corruption the common denominator.

Young people, particularly students, stand at the forefront of these movements, alongside victims’ families who’ve become powerful advocates for change. In Greece, the Association of Relatives of Tempi Victims has emerged as a legitimate voice demanding accountability. North Macedonia’s protests have united citizens across economic and political divides, channelling widespread disillusionment with limited youth prospects and endemic corruption. Serbia’s movement has achieved remarkable geographic reach, spreading to some 400 cities and towns with innovative tactics like ‘half-hour noise’ protests following moments of silence for victims.

All three countries became democracies within living memory: Greece democratised five decades ago when its military junta collapsed, while North Macedonia and Serbia emerged from Communist Yugoslavia after its 1990 dissolution. Today, profound disillusionment pervades these societies. Clientelism, corruption and patronage flourish, effectively placing state functions at the service of elite interests rather than public needs. In Serbia, and to a lesser extent in North Macedonia, governments have also taken authoritarian turns. The most deeply disappointed are young people who grew up after democratic transitions and were taught to expect better.

The human cost of corruption

Greece’s February 2023 railway tragedy revealed a system crippled by chronic underinvestment and maintenance failures linked to corrupt contracting practices. In the face of official denials and inaction, private investigators hired by victims’ families discovered many initially survived the crash, only to perish in the subsequent fire, possibly caused by undeclared flammable chemical cargo.

In North Macedonia, the Pulse nightclub that caught fire this March was a disaster in waiting: a converted factory with only one viable exit, locked emergency doors, highly flammable materials and no fire safety equipment, operating with an illegally issued licence.

Serbia’s Novi Sad railway station, where a canopy collapsed in November 2024, had just been renovated under confidential contracts with Chinese companies. The tragedy was preventable, but corner-cutting maximised profits at the expense of safety.

In all three cases, excessive private influence over government decisions sacrificed public safety for private gain. Warning signs had repeatedly been flagged by civil society groups, journalists and opposition politicians, only to be ignored. A protest slogan in North Macedonia powerfully captured this view: ‘We are not dying from accidents, we are dying from corruption’. The same sentiment echoed in a Greek protest slogan, ‘Their policies cost human lives’ and a Serbian message to the authorities: ‘You have blood on your hands’. Another popular Serbian protest motto, ‘We are all under the canopy’, conveyed a general sense of shared vulnerability from corrupt governance structures.

Demands and responses

Protesters across all three countries share strikingly similar demands: accountability for those directly responsible and officials who enabled safety violations, transparent investigations free from political influence and systemic reforms to address corruption’s root causes. They recognise that democracy requires functioning accountability mechanisms beyond elections, in the form of institutionalised checks and balances and public oversight.

Government responses have taken a predictable course: minor concessions followed by attempts to manage rather than meaningfully address public anger.

North Macedonia’s interior minister was quick to admit the nightclub’s licence was illegally issued and the authorities ordered the detention of 20 people, including the club manager and government officials. But protesters saw these actions as scapegoating rather than genuine reform. In Greece, following the train crash initially blamed on a ‘tragic human error‘, the transport minister resigned, but investigations progressed at a glacial pace amid accusations of evidence cover-ups and avoidance of political responsibility. Serbia’s government initially released some classified documents and promised to address protesters’ demands, yet as protests persisted, President Aleksandar Vučić shifted to confrontational rhetoric, accusing protesters of orchestrating violence as puppets of western intelligence services.

The pattern of symbolic gestures followed by resistance to substantive reform, sometimes accompanied by protest repression, revealed a fundamental credibility gap: people can’t trust that announced reforms will be implemented when implementation depends on institutions compromised by corruption. This explains why protesters across all three countries emphasise civil society oversight and adherence to international standards as essential components of any credible reform.

From street protest to institutional reform

The emotional impact of these tragedies created rare policy windows, mobilising otherwise disengaged people and generating reform pressure. The critical question remains whether these windows will close with minimal change or whether sustained pressure will achieve meaningful institutional transformation.

These movements face significant challenges: maintaining mobilisation as emotional impact fades, avoiding co-optation or division by shallow governmental reform language and shifting from opposing clear wrongs to offering politically feasible yet transformative reform ideas. History suggests real reform is rare, bringing the danger that, without government action, momentum could be coopted by populist politicians eager to take advantage of anger at government failures and put it at the service of their regressive agendas.

But there are also grounds for optimism. The broad-based protest coalitions that have emerged have shown the potential to cross traditional political divides. Their focus on specific, documented governance failures provides tangible reform targets rather than abstract demands. The moral imperative of honouring victims creates emotional resources that could sustain them over time. And they’ve come at a time when corrupt elites’ legitimacy was already under strain due to economic challenges.

As protesters keep gathering in town squares across the Balkans, they embody a compelling vision of democracy that genuinely serves citizens rather than rulers. In reclaiming democratic promises repeatedly betrayed by those in power, they serve as a reminder that power in a democracy should flow from and benefit everyone, not just a few.

Inés M. Pousadela is CIVICUS Senior Research Specialist, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

For interviews or more information, please contact research@civicus.org

 

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A female merchant is preparing her produce in a market in Hanoi, Viet Nam. Informal sector is vital for the livelihood of over 4 billion people in Asia and the Pacific. Economic policies should be mapped out to support them amid global uncertainties. Credit: Unsplash/Jack Young

By Sudip Ranjan Basu
BANGKOK, Thailand, May 16 2025 (IPS)

As the United Nations celebrates its 80th anniversary, one message from the UN Charter remains particularly relevant: promoting cooperative solutions to international economic, social, health, and related problems.

Over the past eight decades, international cooperation has led to an unparalleled reduction in hunger, extreme poverty, and disease. Investments in public services have unlocked opportunities and enhanced choices in Asia and the Pacific.

There are numerous lessons for policymakers to learn and apply to the current context. Rising prices, growing wealth inequality, multidimensional poverty, and the prevalence of low-paid informal sector jobs still shape the lives and livelihoods of over 4.86 billion people in the Asia-Pacific region.

Differential outcomes in economic prosperity, social progress, and environmental stewardship have been critical in addressing policy turns. Policy insights and formulations are often shaped by the need to navigate regional and global uncertainties; with these triggers influencing policy turns.

Today, there are enormous opportunities to turn past policy lessons into future policy insights.

The age of a new international economic order

The adoption of new technologies, particularly advanced farming techniques and high-yield crop varieties, significantly boosted agricultural productivity and led to substantial rural income growth in the 1970s. Conversely, volatility in energy prices adversely affected macroeconomic conditions and increased debt levels in many developing countries in the 1980s.

The 1997 Asian financial crisis raised alarms about the deepening links of financial markets, impacting trade diversion, cross-border investment measures, and labour market absorption capacity.

These region-wide challenges were addressed through multi-layered policies focusing on public services, macroeconomic stabilization measures, active labour market policies and promoting national policies for industrial and technological development.

The policies also emphasized the significant role of supporting private sector enterprises to restore growth potential and the need to accelerate regional, inter-regional and sub-regional cooperation in trade as well as promote financial sector development.

An era of globalization

With the world turning towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2000, optimism soared with the prospect of ending extreme poverty and fostering a commitment to development cooperation.

Global trade performance saw a sharp rise in export growth in developing countries, alongside a steady flow of supplies across regional value chains. These positive trade experiences were complemented by a favourable macroeconomic environment, which further improved foreign direct investment flows and ICT-led growth.

However, the 2008 global financial and economic crisis had an adverse impact on the Asia-Pacific region. Economic growth experienced one of the most severe downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930s, constraining domestic economic activities and destabilizing the trade sector, causing hardship for millions and dampening job prospects.

During this period, policymakers pursued multilayered goals to balance strategies on multiple fronts based on their national and regional contexts. Governments prioritized anti-poverty agendas, scaled up public-private investments, and fostered cooperation around fiscal, financial, and monetary responses to mitigate the severity and duration of the crises.

Governments announced fiscal stimulus packages and reinvigorated global policy coordination post-2008 crisis to overcome the Great Recession. Post-2008 policy turns emphasised governance, decentralization, and trans-boundary cooperation, which stabilized the macroeconomic and foreign exchange markets.

As people began to enjoy the benefits of stability and the spirit of cooperation, there was a renewed call to increase socio-economic opportunities for the marginalized groups.

Towards sustainable development

As the world leaders adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in 2015, international cooperation was championed to transform our world. Forward-looking policymaking has been mainstreamed to unlock opportunities across regions. Inspired by policy choices for inclusive development, structural transformation, accelerated energy transition, technology-driven industrialization and sustainable financing, a new path has been paved to overcome the existential threat of climate change.

Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic impacted communities and countries across the region, exposing weak healthcare systems, inadequate social protection mechanisms, informal labour markets, supply chain vulnerabilities, and limited trade and economic diversification strategies.

The multi-speed economic recovery highlighted the need for cooperation during turbulent times, while prioritizing sustainability to ensure a smooth recovery from the cost-of-living crisis as well as global supply chain disruptions and debt distress.

Governments emphasized the importance of reimagining public policymaking, ranging from cooperation in vaccine production to environmental protection policies, technological advancements, and early warning systems.

Strategic foresight and going beyond 2030

In 2025, all stakeholders face a critical choice between regional and subregional cooperation and focusing on limited interests, which could further stall progress in socio-economic prosperity and climate action. As policy turns occur, international cooperation and fostering partnerships are once again poised to play a catalytic role in expanding and scaling up solution-focused pathways, enhancing futures thinking for all stakeholders in Asia and the Pacific.

Now is the time to focus on developing economic and social infrastructure, trade and investment strategies, and private sector engagement to align with the aspirations of the people in the region.

Sudip Ranjan Basu is Chief of ESCAP Sustainable Business Network Section

Source: Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

IPS UN Bureau

 

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High-rise buildings under construction in Lagos, Nigeria. Most accommodation is unaffordable for young Nigerians. Credit: Promise Eze/IPS

By Promise Eze
ABUJA, May 15 2025 (IPS)

After graduating in 2019, Jeremiah Achimugu left Sokoto State in northwestern Nigeria for Abuja, the nation’s capital, in search of better opportunities. But life in the city brought unexpected challenges, especially the high cost of housing.

At first, Achimugu stayed with his uncle and worked as a marketer, earning 120,000 naira (USD 73) a month. However, his salary barely covered his basic needs.

“The cost of living in Nigeria’s rapidly developing capital soon ate deep into my salary,” he said. “By the end of the month, I was always broke. Transportation, food, and other expenses were just too much.”

When he began searching for a place of his own, he was shocked by the prices. Even a small one-room apartment in a remote area costs about 500,000 naira (USD 307) a year.

“There was no way I could afford that kind of rent even though the apartment was nothing to write home about,” he said.

Few months later, Achimugu resigned from his job and returned to Sokoto. His dream of building a life in the city was cut short by the soaring cost of living.

“The cost of living and rent in Nigerian cities is too high for young people,” he said. “But these are the places where the opportunities are. Some landlords are taking advantage of young people coming into the cities by raising the rent.”

A Continental Rental Crisis

Achimugu’s experience reflects a larger problem faced by young people across Nigeria. About 63 percent of the country’s population is under the age of 24, and cities are growing rapidly. The United Nations has warned that Nigeria’s urban population is increasing almost twice as fast as the national average. However, housing hasn’t kept up with this growth. As a result, the few available homes are now overpriced. The World Bank estimates the country has a housing shortage of over 17 million homes.

In major cities like Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt, rent prices can range from around 400,000 naira (USD 246) to as much as 25 million naira (USD 16,000) per annum, depending on the location and kind of apartment.

With a monthly minimum wage of 70,000 naira (USD 43), which is often unpaid or delayed, and high unemployment, many young people cannot afford decent housing. This makes it harder for them to settle down, build strong social connections, or feel financially secure.

Nigeria is not alone. Across Africa, young people are being priced out of the rental market. Rapid urbanization, population growth, and economic hardship have made affordable housing a growing concern. In interviews with young people in Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, and Nigeria, IPS confirmed that the same challenges exist across the continent.

Formal housing remains beyond the reach of most Africans, with only the top 5 to 10 percent of the population able to afford it. The majority are left to live in informal settlements, many of which lack essential services such as clean water, electricity, and proper sanitation. Experts have warned that without increased investment in affordable housing, a growing number of young people will struggle to find a place to live.

Kwantami Kwame in Kumasi, Ghana, blames capitalism and the greed of real estate owners for the high cost of rent. He told IPS that the rush for quick profits in the cities is affecting the welfare of young people, most of whom are low-income earners.

“A few weeks ago, I was looking for a one-bedroom apartment in Accra, the capital of Ghana, and I was asked to pay an upfront two-year rent fee of 38,275 Ghanaian Cedis (USD 2,500). The apartment wasn’t even up to standard. The fee didn’t cover water, electricity, or waste bills. It’s really unfair,” said Kwame, who noted that in a country where the monthly minimum wage is just 539.19 Ghanaian cedis (USD 45), there should be provisions for young people to access affordable housing in cities where opportunities exist.

Kwame believes governments should regulate rents and check the excesses of landlords. But Olaitan Olaoye, a Lagos-based real estate expert, sees it differently. He points to limited land availability as a major factor driving up rent and argues that price controls won’t solve the problem.

“Governments in Africa shouldn’t be setting rent prices when they’re not doing enough to tackle inflation, which keeps pushing up the cost of building materials,” he said.

“For instance, in a country like Nigeria, the removal of the fuel subsidy caused prices to skyrocket. This had a ripple effect on everything else, including construction. It led to an increase in the cost of building materials. The government then has no moral right to instruct landlords to reduce their rent,” Olaoye argued.

While he does not excuse the greed of some landlords and estate developers, Olaoye worries that if young people already struggle to rent homes, the dream of owning one may become increasingly unrealistic.

“In the past, it was easier for people to build homes. Prices of building materials were affordable and life was more stable. Back then, when people finished school and got a job, they could start saving right away. They could afford to buy a car, build a house, and live comfortably. But things have changed,” he said.

Inadequate Social Housing Programs

Olaoye’s concerns are echoed by Phoebe Atieno Ochieng in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya. After securing a teaching job in the capital, she left her family home in the countryside of Busia. However, with a monthly salary of only 18,000 Kenya Shillings (USD 140), renting a place in the city was out of her reach.

“I had no choice but to live in a small space provided by the school management within the school premises,” she told IPS. “The houses here are not affordable. A basic one-bedroom apartment costs 120,000 Kenyan shillings per month. I can’t balance my income because I still have to pay taxes, buy food, and take care of other daily needs. Unless I get a better-paying job, I can’t manage.”

Ochieng criticizes the Kenyan government for its failure to provide adequate social housing and ensure access to affordable mortgages.

While the Kenyan government has launched a social housing scheme like the Affordable Housing Programme to help low- and middle-income earners secure decent homes, the initiative has faced growing criticism. Many argue that the houses being built are still unaffordable, and there are widespread concerns about the potential mismanagement of the scheme. Also, the introduction of a mandatory housing tax has sparked outrage, with many questioning why they are being compelled to fund homes they may never qualify for or benefit from.

Similarly, the Nigerian government has made several attempts to address the housing crisis through various national housing programs designed to provide affordable homes in cities. However, these programs have often failed due to poor implementation, inadequate funding, and corruption. Many housing projects have been abandoned, leaving the promise of affordable housing unfulfilled for the majority of Nigerians.

South Africa’s housing crisis is worsening due to rapid urbanization, economic challenges, and the legacy of apartheid. Cities like Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Durban are seeing an increasing number of people move from rural areas in search of better job opportunities, putting pressure on housing infrastructure.

During apartheid, many Black South Africans were confined to overcrowded townships on the outskirts of cities, areas that still lack proper infrastructure and services. As young people flock to cities for better prospects, they face the challenge of unaffordable rent, which, according to Ntando Mji, a receptionist in Cape Town, is limiting their potential.

Although the government has attempted to provide subsidized housing for those with a limited income, the scale of the problem is overwhelming, and millions are still waiting for homes. “In Cape Town, getting a house is so difficult. The agents require a three-month rent deposit, and they scrutinize your income, but even getting approved for a space is really hard,” Mji lamented.

“Because it is mainly commercial entities that build houses, they are so expensive. This is why the South African government should intervene by providing accommodation at lower prices and engaging the private sector in building lower-cost housing in safer areas,” said Bhufura Majola, who told IPS that he waited a year before he could even get a small apartment in a student area far from where he works.

He added, “The high cost of rental prices in South Africa is a big deterrent to young professionals in particular because it takes away their choices of where to stay, especially near places where employment is guaranteed. This has forced many to abandon their dreams.”

Peace Abiola, who lives in Ibadan, Southwest Nigeria, spent all her savings—600,000 naira (USD 369)—on an apartment last year. She works as a freelance content creator for brands, earning an irregular income. Now, with her rent due, she is considering returning to her village because she can no longer afford to keep up.

“I think one solution to this problem is the proper implementation of laws to control the irregular hike in rental prices,” she said, echoing the frustration of many Nigerians who have started protesting and calling on the government to act.

The Nigerian government has repeatedly promised to enforce policies that protect tenants, but none of those pledges have materialized.

“Here, we are just focused on survival or how to pay the next rent or how to get the next meal. This is not how life should be,” Abiola said.

Note: This article is brought to you by IPS Noram in collaboration with INPS Japan and Soka Gakkai International in consultative status with ECOSOC.
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By Andy Currier
OAKLAND, California, USA, May 15 2025 (IPS)

Last week, at its annual Land Conference in Washington D.C., (May 5-8), the World Bank showed allegiance to the new US administration by dropping the pretense of promoting land reform for climate action and confirming that its land agenda is about boosting corporate profits.

Climate Focus Abandoned to Appease Trump

While it had previously announced that the 2025 conference would focus on the “foundational role of securing land tenure and access for climate action,” the Bank scrambled in response to the seismic political shift brought on by the second Trump presidency.

The administration’s “America First” agenda has slashed global development aid, including 85 percent of USAID programs that were unceremoniously and abruptly ended. After exiting the Paris Agreement on climate, Trump also proposed a budget that would further reduce federal climate change programs.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently reassured the Bretton Woods Institutions that their largest shareholder would not be pulling out at their Spring Meetings in April 2025. He did, however, specify that the Bank and IMF “must step back from their sprawling and unfocused agendas,” condemning their work on climate, gender, and other social issues.

In response, Bank staff were allegedly instructed not to mention climate or gender at the Spring Meetings, as the institutions cower under US pressure.

Just weeks before the Land Conference started, its website was altered to remove the headline banner on “Securing Land Tenure and Access for Climate Action.” The last-minute shift in messaging – just a year after launching a multi-billion-dollar land initiative – confirms the findings of a recent exposé by the Oakland Institute:

The Bank’s land push was never actually about climate action. Released the week before the conference, the Climatewash report revealed how the Bank intends to open lands to agribusiness, mining of “transition minerals,” and false solutions like carbon credits – fueling dispossession and environmental destruction.

Land Conference homepage in February 2025 (left) and then in May 2025 (right), after focus on climate was scrubbed. Source: The World Bank

At last year’s Land Conference – focused on “Securing Land Tenure and Access for Climate Action” – the Bank unveiled plans to massively expand its influence on land policy around the world through the Global Program on Land Tenure Security and Land Access for Climate Goals.

It announced plans to “ensure 100 million people see greater tenure security… and improve land administration and land access for climate action in 20 countries” over the next five years. Towards these goals, the Bank said it will double its investment in the land sector – from US$5 billion to US$10 billion – and double the number of countries where it will intervene with land projects.

Land Reform to Serve Corporate Interests

Despite the dramatic branding shift, the agenda at last week’s conference did not change and several positive sessions focused on climate action and Indigenous rights were held, including a welcome discussion on the importance of “securing collective lands.” The focus on changing land tenure for “economic growth” and “unlocking private capital,” however, took center stage.

At the opening plenary, Rohitesh Dhawan, President and CEO of the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) – the principal trade association of the mining industry – delivered the keynote.

Given the egregious human rights and environmental record of the mining industry, the ICMM’s prominent platform was both startling and revealing, laying bare the true interests the conference would serve. Dhawan began by explaining why he was “more hopeful than ever” about the bright future so-called “sustainable” mining could provide:

“We can literally move mountains and shift the course of ancient rivers, But should we? In many cases, the answer will be yes, because all things considered, as a society, we may reach consensus that the need for commodities and the opportunity for host countries to prosper, grow, and develop means that mining should go ahead with the least possible disruption to land, impacted people, and nature.”

While Dhawan went on to say that Free, Prior, and Informed, Consent was “front and center in their approach,” and areas like World Heritage Sites were off limits, he assumes communities will eventually come to accept mining on their lands despite the grave social, environmental, and economic toll it has historically inflicted upon them.

In a telling moment, when the opening panel was asked to give an example of a successful co-ownership model between firms and locals, no examples from Africa or Latin America came to mind. These communities continue to push for genuine authority over their lands, but have seen little progress despite these conference hall platitudes and promises.

Later in the week, several sessions focused on securing land for carbon markets, unsurprising given the lead role the Bank plays in promoting this dangerous false climate solution that has failed to reduce emissions. While it has been extensively documented how carbon offsetting primarily benefits predatory actors at the expense of local communities, the Bank continues to champion these schemes.

Other sessions discussed the role land policies can play in “developing” agriculture, another expected focus in light of the Bank’s new plan to double its agri-finance and agribusiness commitments to US$9 billion annually by 2030.

In one event, Malawi was hailed as a land reform success story, despite the role of the Bank in blocking recent efforts to address historical inequities in land ownership, as detailed in the Climatewash report. Instead, the Bank has coerced Malawi to implement policies favorable to agribusiness.

These conferences are largely symbolic and even if the focus was on climate action, the true impact of the Bank’s efforts remains the same. In practice, the Bank’s land programs and policy prescriptions dismantle collective land tenure systems and promote individual titling and land markets as the norm, paving the way for private investment and corporate takeover.

These reforms, often financed through loans taken by governments, force countries into debt while pushing a “structural transformation” that displaces smallholder farmers, undermines food sovereignty, and prioritizes industrial agriculture and extractive industries.

At this critical juncture to address the climate crisis, this impact directly opposes the IPCC’s recommendations around stopping land conversion.

The Bank is now scrambling to appease Trump, who is content to watch the world burn as long as he and his wealthy oligarchs continue to profit. Through its global land reform agenda, the Bank facilitates the dispossession of local communities across the Global South under its past northstar of economic growth.

The mask is now off – and any illusions that these efforts will help secure rights or address the climate crisis have been shattered.

Andy Currier is Policy Analyst at the Oakland Institute.

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A family in Khan Younis, Gaza. Roughly 2.1 million people in Gaza are in critical need of food assistance. Credit: UNICEF/Mohammed Nateel

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, May 14 2025 (IPS)

Since the dissolution of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in March, roughly 2 million Palestinians residing within the Gaza Strip have struggled to survive amid constant barrages of airstrikes from the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and a persisting blockade on humanitarian aid. With essential border crossings in Gaza remaining closed, humanitarian organizations have expressed fear that the Palestinians within the enclave could experience exacerbated rates of famine and malnutrition.

“The risk of famine does not arrive suddenly. It unfolds in places where access to food is blocked, where health systems are decimated, and where children are left without the bare minimum to survive. Hunger and acute malnutrition are a daily reality for children across the Gaza Strip,” said Catherine Russell, the Executive Director of the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). “We have repeatedly warned of this trajectory and call again on all parties to prevent a catastrophe.”

Humanitarian aid and food assistance has been blocked by the IDF since March 2, marking the longest blockade since the war in Gaza broke out in 2023. In late March, all 25 of the bakeries in Gaza, which have been supported by the World Food Programme (WFP), shut down. These bakeries were considered to be a lifeline for Gazans. Around this time, WFP’s entire supply of food parcels and two weeks of food rations were depleted.

According to figures from UNICEF, more than 116,000 metric tons of food assistance, which is enough to feed the entire population for roughly 4 months, is in position to be delivered, waiting on borders to open. Additionally, food prices have soared by 3,000 percent since February, pushing basic items, such as flour, out of reach for the majority of Palestinians within the enclave.

“Families in Gaza are starving while the food they need is sitting at the border. We can’t get it to them because of the renewed conflict and the total ban on humanitarian aid imposed in early March,” said the WFP’s Executive Director Cindy McCain. “It’s imperative that the international community acts urgently to get aid flowing into Gaza again. If we wait until after a famine is confirmed, it will already be too late for many people.”

On May 12, UNICEF and the WFP released a report detailing the current hunger crisis in Gaza. According to the report, food supplies have run critically low and the entire population is facing acute food insecurity. Furthermore, roughly 71,000 children and 17,000 mothers are threatened by acute malnutrition.

Additional figures from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) indicate that approximately 470,000 Gazans are currently facing catastrophic levels of hunger (IPC Phase 5). Furthermore, it is estimated that roughly 60,000 children are in dire need of treatment for malnutrition.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that there have been at least 57 child deaths as a result of starvation in Gaza. This estimate is believed to be lower than the actual amount of deaths, with thousands of children being at risk of dying due to starvation in the next 11 months.

Breastfeeding mothers in Gaza have been hit especially hard by the blockade, with thousands struggling to produce enough milk to feed their children. With supplemental nutritional services having been rendered essentially nonfunctional, thousands of children are at a heightened risk of disease. An entire generation of children are projected to face a multitude of long-term health risks including stunted growth, impaired cognitive development, and compromised immune systems.

The current distribution plan presented by Israeli authorities to the United Nations (UN) entails roughly 60 trucks of humanitarian aid entering Gaza per day, which is about one-tenth of the supply delivered during the implementation of the ceasefire. IPC warns that catastrophic levels of hunger are to become widespread between now and September if this plan is implemented.

This proposal seeks to establish several aid hubs exclusively in the south of the enclave. According to UNICEF spokesperson James Elder, this plan would create “an impossible choice between displacement and death”, as the vast majority of civilians would have to abandon their homes to access the supplies they need for survival.

The most vulnerable populations, such as children, the disabled, and the elderly, would face extreme challenges if this plan was to be implemented. “It’s dangerous to ask civilians to go into militarized zones to collect rations…humanitarian aid should never be used as a bargaining chip,” Elder said.

The Trump administration has announced a separate distribution plan for Gaza which has been approved by Israeli authorities but rejected by UN officials. This plan entails the establishment of several distribution centers facilitated by private firms. Israel would not be involved in the distribution of aid but would assist in security services around the perimeters of these centers.

“President Trump has made very clear that one of the most urgent things that needs to happen is humanitarian aid into Gaza, and he has tasked all of his team to do everything possible to accelerate that and to as expeditiously as possible get humanitarian aid in, to the people,” said US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee.

Israel’s foreign minister Gideon Saar expressed approval for this plan, citing Hamas as a persistent threat that takes advantage of aid deliveries. Many UN officials have denounced this plan, with Olga Cherevko of the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) stating that there are monitoring systems in place to ensure that all aid goes to civilians.

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Marriage rates, especially among young adults, have declined substantially over the past seventy-five years. Credit: Shutterstock

By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, May 14 2025 (IPS)

Until the middle of the 20th century, marriage between men and women was the societal norm among countries, and the cohabitation of couples was uncommon and stigmatized. In the subsequent decades, however, that situation changed significantly worldwide.

Marriage rates, especially among young adults, have declined substantially over the past seventy-five years. Additionally, women and men who decide to marry are doing so at older ages and having fewer children than in the recent past.

The median ages at first marriage for men and women have been steadily increasing in countries worldwide. The increasing marriage ages are partly due to increased education, employment, and career decisions; the evolving role and improving status of women; lifestyle preferences; and changing societal norms concerning personal relationships between men and women.

Besides marriage at older ages, couples are choosing to have fewer children than they had a half century ago. For example, the world’s average number of births per woman has declined from 5.3 births in 1963 to 2.3 births in 2023. Also, in over half of all countries, representing over two-thirds of the world’s population, fertility rates are below the replacement fertility of 2.1 births per woman.

At the same time that marriage rates have been declining and women are having fewer births, cohabitation, or people living together without being married, has become increasingly acceptable and common in many countries worldwide.

In the United States, for example, the proportions of young adults and older adults living with a partner increased significantly over the past half century. Whereas in 1970 the proportion cohabitating was a fraction of one percent, by 2018 the percentage had increased to nearly 10% among those aged 18 to 24 years and to nearly 15% among those aged 25 to 34 years and those aged 65 years and older (Figure 1).

 

Source: US Census Bureau.

 

In 1970, cohabitation preceded about 11% of the marriages in the United States. That percentage increased significantly over the subsequent decades, and currently approximately 75% of marriages are preceded by cohabitation. Also, the large majority of Americans, close to 70%, say cohabitation is acceptable even if a couple doesn’t plan to get married.

With the increasing levels of cohabitation among young adults in the US, the proportion of births to unmarried mothers also increased. Whereas 5% of all births in the United States in 1960 were to unmarried women, the proportion increased to 33% by 2000 and reached approximately 40% by 2021.

Cohabitation is becoming more prevalent in most populations, particularly in Latin America and Western countries. In contrast, cohabitation is less common in some countries, especially in Asia and the Middle East, because of traditional roles and cultural norms. In those countries, such as Indonesia, Jordan, the Philippines, and Egypt, the large majority of adults in ages 18 to 49 years old are married (Figure 2).

 

Source: World Family Map Report, 2015.

 

However, even among some traditional countries, cohabitation has increased. For example, despite the religious laws in Iran, increasing numbers of young Iranian couples, especially those living in urban areas, are choosing cohabitation before marriage.

Cohabitation is becoming more prevalent in most populations, particularly in Latin America and Western countries. In contrast, cohabitation is less common in some countries, especially in Asia and the Middle East, because of traditional roles and cultural norms

Non-marital cohabitation is also becoming increasingly common in China, gaining acceptance among young men and women living in urban areas. Similar to many Western countries, cohabitation in China among young adults has been increasing rapidly with older marriage ages, declining fertility levels, and increasing divorce rates.

Also, changes in Chinese laws may contribute to changes in public attitudes toward cohabitation. For example, whereas the Chinese Marriage Law of 1980 referred to “illegal cohabitation”, a 2001 amendment to the law changed the wording to “non-marital cohabitation”.

Similarly, in India, cohabitation is considered a taboo in traditional Indian society. However, over the recent past, cohabitation has become increasingly popular among young men and women in urban centers.

With more Indian women becoming educated, joining the labor force, and gaining financial independence, traditional attitudes toward marriage are shifting towards more acceptance of cohabitation. Again, live-in relationships are being used by many young couples in urban areas to test their compatibility and differences before making a commitment to marriage.

In contrast to many of the traditional countries in Asia and the Middle East, cohabitation across Latin America and the Caribbean has become increasingly prevalent since the 1970s. Also, adults aged 18 to 49 years have relatively low proportions married, often less than 30%.

Because of the comparatively high prevalence of cohabitation in many Latin American countries, the large majority of births in that region are out of wedlock. Between 2016 and 2020, approximately three-quarters of the children born in Latin America are estimated to have been born outside marriage. In countries such as Chile, Costa Rica, and Mexico, the percentages of births born out of wedlock in 2020 were no less than 70 percent (Figure 3).

 

Source: OECD.

 

Various factors are behind the increasing trend away from marriage and towards cohabitation. Among those factors are testing personal relationships, assessing compatibility, financial benefits, flexibility, widespread availability of modern contraceptives, disillusionment with the institution of marriage, and avoidance of legal and monetary obligations related to marriage, including the risks of divorce.

Cohabitation offers an opportunity for couples to get to know each other in a shared living environment. It permits couples to assess their compatibility and areas of discordance before deciding whether they wish to enter a marriage or remain cohabitating.

Cohabitation also typically avoids the legal process and formalities of marriage. It provides couples with the flexibility to move on with their lives if their personal relationship doesn’t work out. In addition, some men and women may not want to make a long-term commitment and take on the responsibilities and obligations that marriage typically entails.

While some cohabiting couples may choose to avoid making a long-term commitment, others may view cohabitation as providing a promising path to marriage. In many countries, including Brazil, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the large majority of marriages are preceded by cohabitation.

Also, increasingly, in some countries, couples decide to wed after they’ve had children together. Having children for many couples often represents a serious commitment to one’s partner, and marriage provides those couples with a visible way to celebrate their commitment to each other and their family. There are also financial and legal benefits to getting married, including pensions and inheritance matters.

However, some concerns have been raised about the consequences of cohabitation on families. In general, cohabitation is less stable for families with children than marriage and contributes to the rise of single-parent households with fathers missing.

In a global study of over sixty countries, cohabitating couples with children were found to be more likely to break up than married couples. More specifically, in nearly all the countries examined, children born to cohabiting parents were significantly more likely to see their parents break up before age 12 compared to children whose parents were married at their birth.

In sum, over much of the past, marriage between men and women existed as the world’s societal norm, permitting men and women to live together, take part in sex, and have children. After the middle of the 20th century, that societal norm changed significantly, with marriage becoming increasingly replaced or preceded by the cohabitation of men and women and greater numbers of children born out of wedlock.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division, and author of many publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

More than one-third of Nigerian adults suffer from hypertension, a leading risk factor for heart disease, stroke, and kidney failure. Excess salt intake contributes significantly to these conditions. Credit: Shutterstock

By Ifeanyi Nsofor
WASHINGTON DC, May 14 2025 (IPS)

In Nigeria, salt is deeply woven into the fabric of food and culture. It brings out flavor, preserves ingredients, and enhances tradition. But recently, salt has become the centerpiece of dangerous misinformation promoted by one of Nigeria’s most powerful spiritual leaders.

During a now-viral sermon, Pastor Chris Oyakhilome, founder of the global megachurch Christ Embassy, declared that warnings about excess salt are part of a broader conspiracy to harm Africans. He said, “They told you salt is not good so you won’t take salt anymore and then you get sodium deficiency and need their sodium tablets and sodium medication. Wake up, Africa!”

Within days, Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Health issued a formal advisory contradicting his claims and reinforcing the risks of high salt intake. The ministry emphasized the well-known risks: high blood pressure, heart failure, stroke, and kidney disease. WHO recommends adults consume less than 5 grams of salt daily (about one teaspoon).

But what happens when millions believe the pulpit over public health policy?

 

A Pattern of Misinformation by Pastor Oyakhilome

Pastor Oyakhilome’s salt remarks are not an isolated incident. He has a troubling record of promoting health-related conspiracy theories that put his followers and the larger Christian community at risk.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, he falsely claimed that 5G technology was responsible for the spread of the virus. Though he later walked it back, the damage was done, fueling confusion and mistrust.

He has also repeatedly mischaracterized COVID-19 vaccines, describing them as tools of genetic manipulation. In one broadcast, he suggested that they alter human DNA, a claim unequivocally refuted by scientists and fact-checkers.

In April 2025, Oyakhilome falsely claimed that Pope Francis had died due to the COVID-19 vaccine. The Vatican quickly debunked this falsehood and confirmed that the 88-year-old pontiff passed away due to complications from a stroke, which led to a coma and heart failure.

Such statements have drawn regulatory action. In 2021, the UK’s broadcasting regulator, Ofcom, fined Oyakhilome’s television channel £25,000 for airing COVID-19 conspiracy theories and unsubstantiated medical claims.

 

Why Salt Misinformation Matters

The impact of misinformation is compounded in countries like Nigeria, where religious leaders wield enormous influence. According to a 2022 Afrobarometer survey, 60% of Nigerians said they trust religious leaders ‘somewhat’ or ‘a lot’. This is far higher than the trust shown for political leaders or public institutions: the president (27%); members of the National Assembly (19%); and political parties (15%).

 

Misinformation from the pulpit has real consequences

More than one-third of Nigerian adults suffer from hypertension, a leading risk factor for heart disease, stroke, and kidney failure. Excess salt intake contributes significantly to these conditions, as documented across multiple global health studies.

When salt enters the body in excess, its effects ripple silently across vital organs, often without early warning signs.

It starts with the heart, which must work harder to pump the increased volume of blood retained by the sodium. Over time, this sustained pressure can lead to hypertension and eventually heart failure, with the slow thickening of the heart’s walls and the quiet exhaustion of a vital muscle.

The kidneys, too, struggle under the weight of too much salt. These delicate filters are tasked with removing excess sodium, but when overwhelmed, they begin to break down. This can lead to chronic kidney disease, protein leaking into the urine, and the painful formation of kidney stones. Furthermore, reduced kidney function results in less excess water being removed, which increases blood pressure levels.

The brain is especially vulnerable. Prolonged high blood pressure caused by excess salt can rupture or block these vessels, leading to strokes. Even when no stroke occurs, the reduced blood flow can gradually impair memory and cognitive function.

Meanwhile, the arteries harden. Once elastic and responsive, they lose their ability to expand and contract. The result is a narrowed highway for blood, increasing the risk of heart attacks and peripheral artery disease.

High salt levels irritate the lining of the stomach and may contribute to the growth of Helicobacter pylori, a bacterium strongly linked to gastric cancer. What begins as seasoning at the table may, over years, become fuel for malignancy.

These are not speculative concerns. They are well-established scientific facts. When a high-profile pastor tells millions to increase their salt consumption, it risks undoing years of public health education and investment.

 

The Role of Faith Leaders in Health Communication

As a public health physician, I understand the importance of cultural context and trusted messengers. Faith leaders can, and often do play powerful roles in promoting healthy behaviors. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Pastor Enoch Adeboye (General Overseer of Redeemed Christian Church of God) encouraged christians to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. He said, “It is foolish to keep having faith that God will protect you from an infection when He has made provision for vaccines that can provide a high percentage of protection. I have taken the jab. I prayed about it and got a clear direction from God to go and receive it.”

But when spiritual authority is used to promote pseudoscience, it becomes a dangerous betrayal of trust. We must challenge misinformation, especially when it comes from influential voices. Public health officials must collaborate with faith communities to train leaders on evidence-based health communication. And regulatory agencies must be empowered to hold repeat offenders accountable.

 

Conclusion: Let Salt Season Food, Not Falsehood

Salt should enhance flavor. Not endanger lives. It is not a cure, and it certainly is not a conspiracy. Leaders with influence, especially in matters of faith, have a duty to uphold truth, not distort it.

As Nigeria and other countries navigate the growing burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), we cannot afford sermons that sacrifice science for spectacle. NCDs cause about 29% of all deaths in Nigeria — over 684,000 annually.

Let’s preach health. Let’s defend the truth. Let’s keep misinformation out of our kitchens, and out of our pulpits.

 

Dr. Ifeanyi M. Nsofor, a public-health physician, global health equity advocate and behavioral-science researcher, serves on the Global Fellows Advisory Board at the Atlantic Institute, Oxford, United Kingdom. You can follow him @Ifeanyi Nsofor, MD on LinkedIn

Organic waste being composted at a community-led waste management facility in Sesdan village of Gianyar regency, Bali. Credit: Stella Paul/IPS

By Stella Paul
GIANYAR, Bali, May 14 2025 (IPS)

It was Christmas Eve last year when visitors across several tourism hotspots in Bali woke up to a ghastly scene they hadn’t expected: layers of cans, bags, bottles, and driftwood covering their favorite sandy beaches, washed up by hours of rain and high tide. So bad was the situation that from Kuta to Legian and Seminyak to Jimbaran—none of the island’s picturesque beaches was clean enough to attract the visitors for a swim.

The incident intensified the debate that had been raging across Bali for quite some time: was the world’s most picture-perfect holiday destination drowning in plastic waste and ocean debris?

“Garbage tides are not new to Bali nowadays. Every year, we see it increasing but around Christmas, when it’s the peak of our tourism season, we did not expect to see this. Nobody expected to see trash on the beach. All day we picked up the trash and cleaned the beach. It was not an easy job, says Siboto Sayeda, 25, who was one of the many locals who volunteered to remove the waste from the beaches. The cleaning drive—organized by a local NGO—went on for two days before tourists could swim again.

Nearly four months later, several beaches, including the beachfront of the ever-popular Kuta beach are still often barraged by a tide of waste.

Sweta Kala—a visitor from northern India’s Punjab who is in Bali for her honeymoon—says that the garbage on the beach has been a huge disappointment. “We chose to come to Bali instead of Goa (a beach destination in western India), but we haven’t been able to swim even once. The entire beach looks dirty. Our friends are advising us to move to Nusa Dua, but we already paid in advance for our entire vacation, she says.

Burn or Landfills? No Easy Solutions

Data from the Bali Central Bureau of Statistics (BPSJ) & Bali Tourism Authority (DISPARDA) shows that nearly 8 million tourists visited the island destination in 2024; of them, six million are foreigners. The total waste generated collectively by the visitors and the locals in the year was nearly 2 million tons. This is a 30 percent increase from the waste generated in 2020, says Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), a Jakarta-based energy and environment think tank.

“The causes of increased waste generation include a lack of awareness of waste management in most communities, including tourists visiting Bali. In addition, although district and city governments have regulations related to waste (such as waste sorting), enforcement of regulations and limited waste management infrastructure are still contributing to the increasing volume of waste, Tumiwa says.

Currently, the waste is usually deposited in a landfill, TPA Suwung, a 32-hectare landfill located in the heart of Bali or occasionally burned—especially in beach locations with no wide, motorable roads. However, the landfill is nearing its capacity, and the government is said to be scouting for new landfill sites in other parts of Bali.

A community-led solution movement

Thirty-three kilometers away from Kuta beach, villagers from 10 villages in Gianyar have joined hands to find a solution to the mounting waste – both organic and inorganic.

Named Merah Putih Hijau (Red White Green), the villagers’ group has clear goals: manage waste at the source so that there is no further need for either burning or dumping in the landfills; build a community-led circular economy model based on waste; and promote sustainable farming using organic manure while creating waste-based jobs and income for community members.

Their current efforts of the group, however, are primarily focused on running a waste composting facility Located in Sidan village, the facility is used to sort, compost, and package the organic waste. A visit to the center gives one a full view of those efforts, where a group of six to seven villagers can be seen engaged in various waste management activities. While a two-member team is seen sorting organic waste from inorganic waste, others are seen crushing, filtering, and packaging.

“This is a program run by, for, and of the villagers,” says Dewi Kusumawati, Project Manager at Mera Putih Hijau – it involves every villager’s active participation. “We begin by asking everyone in the village to sort their waste at home. Then, we collect the organic waste and bring it to this 3R-Transfer Depo (TPS3R) waste management facility, where it is used to produce quality compost.”

The history of the waste management program is connected to the official waste management program that, villagers say, hasn’t served its purpose to keep the island truly clean and at times has caused more harm than good.

Seven years ago, in 2017, the government of Indonesia set an ambitious target for waste management in its National Development Plan (Kebijakan dan Strategi Nasional). The target included reducing household waste by 30 percent and the handling of household waste by 70 percent by this year (2025).

As a part of this plan, in 2021 the government provided funding to all regencies to build village-level waste management facilities and accordingly, 129 facilities were built, including 36 in Gianyar Regency.  But less than 50 percent of the facilities are well-managed and operated, says Hermitianta Prasetya,  a Community Relation Manager at Bumi Sasmaya Foundation, which manages and funds Merah Putih Hijau.

According to Prasetya, the National Development Plan on waste management also included promoting organic farming and in 2019 the government passed a policy called Organic Farming System Provincial Regulation. But, in Bali, the farming sector is heavily dependent on chemical fertilizer and the new regulation didn’t have provisions to help farmers make a clear shift to using organic fertilizer with training or step-by-step technical guidance.  As a result, it became very hard to convince farmers to change to more sustainable agricultural practices such as using organic fertilizer.

The other reason behind this program has been curbing the current trend of sending waste to landfills: besides the government-owned landfill at Suwung, which handles 1,500 tons of waste every day, it is reported that there are also some 1,000 illegal open dump sites across the province, which pollute both the island’s water sources and environment.

“Currently, about 70 percent of the waste in Bali is taken to dump into landfills. The remainder is mainly organic waste that can be turned into compost. The Merah Putih Hijau program is trying to change the approach towards waste. So, we ask everyone in the village to sort their waste at home. Then, we collect the organic waste and bring it to this 3R-Transfer Depo (TPS3R) waste management facility, where it is used to produce quality compost. This compost then goes right back to the villagers to use in their farms. So, we are aiming to meet the village’s needs at where they are,” says Dewi Kusumawati, Manager of Merah Putih Hijau.

To help the villagers better understand the difference between organic and inorganic waste, the Merah Putih Hijau team also spends substantial time training villagers in separating organic and inorganic waste, composting, and different aspects of sustainable waste management as well as sustainable agriculture. The team has so far done dozens of trainings, says Kusumawati.

Persisting Plastic Problem

Despite their successful composting initiative, the Merah Putih Hijau team has a long way to go before achieving their dream goal of treating all waste locally. The biggest reason behind that is the ever-increasing volume of plastic and other non-compostable waste.

The team collects both organic and plastic waste. But right now, they do not have the capacity to recycle the inorganic waste. In their composting station, an entire room is filled with bundles of plastic bottles, bags, and other waste.  But in the absence of a recycling facility or a program, the waste keeps piling up.

This is a much bigger problem than a village community can handle, admits Prasetya, especially because managing plastic and other inorganic waste needs more effort, including technical expertise and specialized facilities. This cannot be done alone by a village community, and it will require partnership with other actors, including the government and the private business community.

The plan is now to start conversations for building those partnerships that can lead to bigger, stronger waste management initiatives, especially to tackle the plastic waste.

“We are going to create several local networks with hotels, restaurants, and other tourism-based businesses. We are already talking to government officials. Eighty percent of the Balinese population currently earn their livelihood from tourism. And piling garbage is a threat to our tourism and our livelihood. So, there is a common good for us to achieve by partnering and solving the plastic waste together,” Prasteya says.

Considering there are nearly 1300 hotels and restaurants in Giyaniar alone, this is going to be an uphill task for the community group to bring them all into one place and convince them to participate in a collective waste management movement. But Agastya Yatra, the head of the Bumi Sasmaya Foundation, believes that it is possible to do so. The garbage issue, he says, has already been noticed. Now, it’s time to find a solution that works in favor of the locals.

“Eighty percent of our people earn their living from tourism. So, we need solutions that will not affect tourism. We need to keep our tourists happy and for that, we need to keep our villages and beaches clean. This will work only if we join hands and work together,” he says. “Together, if we can segregate waste properly, recycle, and reuse, then slowly but surely, our problem with waste will vanish,” says Yatra.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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By CIVICUS
May 14 2025 (IPS)

 
CIVICUS discusses Romania’s presidential election with Anda Serban, Executive Director of Resource Center for Public Participation (CERE), a civil society organisation (CSO) that focuses on public participation and transparency in decision-making processes.

Romania has experienced a dramatic shift in its political landscape following the presidential election rerun held on 4 May. The Constitutional Court ordered a new election after it annulled the December 2024 vote and disqualified far-right frontrunner Călin Georgescu due to electoral violations and alleged foreign interference. A new far-right candidate, George Simion, took first place in the first round of the rerun election, sending further shockwaves through Romania’s political establishment. A runoff vote between Simion and centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan is scheduled for 18 May.

Anda Serban

What factors led to the decision to annul the first election?

Romania’s weak and corrupt institutions acted too late to address manipulation that destabilised our democracy. The court pointed to three main reasons for annulment: foreign interference in political campaigns, authorities failing to act on available information and the risky, short-sighted strategies employed by political parties seeking to undermine their opponents.

Judges found that illegal digital campaigning, foreign interference and campaign finance violations compromised the integrity of the election and decided a full rerun was necessary. Unlike other countries facing similar challenges, Romania’s response has been notably inadequate. While France, Moldova and the USA have tackled similar problems and some steps have been taken at the European level, Romania took far too long to act. In typical Romanian political and bureaucratic fashion, once information came out, politicians did nothing right away. Instead of following clear steps to act quickly, officials waited and tried to see how they could use it to their advantage.

How did this affect public trust in Romania’s democratic institutions?

This crisis exists within a broader context of eroding democratic norms. Trust was already low before the annulment, and with good reason. The government increasingly uses emergency ordinances to legislate, Bucharest’s city hall opens less than three per cent of its proposals for public debate and local authorities systematically ignore civic input. This comes on top of a poorly managed pandemic and a war in Ukraine across our border, with the aggressor’s voice amplified in social media.

Authorities have done nothing to reverse this trend. On the contrary, they have increasingly tried to restrict civic space and human rights. So when the election was suddenly annulled, it became the spark that ignited an already volatile situation. This ongoing institutional failure has had a profound impact on the credibility of the entire electoral process.

The aftermath of the court’s decision further damaged public confidence. Distrust intensified because authorities acted too slowly and inadequately. No senior official was held accountable. Without a public, transparent review, many people didn’t see this annulment as a real defence of democracy.

What role have established political parties played in the crisis?

The current situation stems partly from cynical political calculations by mainstream parties. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party believed they could ride the wave of far-right and sovereigntist sentiment, represented by Georgescu, without serious consequences. They’ve maintained power for over 35 years. They assumed they could face him in a runoff and easily defeat him. But his support proved much stronger than they expected.

This miscalculation has now transformed the political landscape. Georgescu’s disqualification turned him into an anti-system symbol, despite being an insider and having held public jobs. Every candidate tried to claim the anti-system role, some more aggressively than others.

The resulting polarisation is unprecedented. Some Georgescu backers hoped to repeat a situation similar to the attack on the US Capitol on 6 January 2021. We’ve seen some insurrectionary slogans, such as ‘second round back’, fuelled by both real supporters and bots seeking to erode trust in the process.

Who were the leading candidates in the rerun first round?

Although the ballot looked very different from December, the ideological spectrum remained largely conservative. Most candidates appealed to the same pool of Christian-Orthodox voters. The biggest dividing line was foreign policy: some were pro-European Union (EU), others pro-USA, particularly pro-Trump, and a few pushed anti-Ukrainian, pro-Russian narratives.

The race effectively narrowed to five significant contenders. George Simion of the Alliance of Union of Romanians (AUR) emerged as Georgescu’s political heir. No one was able to fully capture Georgescu’s support base, but Simion came closest by copying his style and behaviour. He skipped all three official presidential debates, in one case staging a dramatic walkout with supporters, just as Georgescu did in 2024. While this showed a lack of respect for voters, Simion may have felt he had nothing to gain and only votes to lose. This strategy won him first place with 40.96 per cent of the vote.

Simion and AUR represent a clear threat to Romania’s European orientation. They are conservative on family and immigration, oppose human rights advances and are pro-Russian in foreign policy. The EU is under pressure from many fronts, and Simion’s rise adds to that strain.

The other candidates positioned themselves within this disrupted landscape. Bucharest’s mayor, Nicușor Dan, ran as an independent with the Save Romania Union’s support. He cast himself as the ‘lone wolf’ anti-system figure. During his mayoral term, he built coalitions in the city council for reforms. He received 20.99 per cent of the vote and will now compete with Simion in the runoff.

The three other candidates were Elena Lasconi, Crin Antonescu and Victor Ponta. Lasconi maintained that she should have been the rightful challenger to Georgescu in the previous runoff. She targeted Dan’s voters, accusing him of ‘stealing’ them. Antonescu, in contrast, represented continuity with the governing coalition. He relied on his rhetorical skills to fill the ‘calm statesman’ role Georgescu once sought. He showed a lot of pragmatism, expressing willingness to form any coalition – even with the far right – to stay in power. And Ponta emerged as a troubling surprise. He staged a political comeback with provocative proposals, adopting a Romanian version of Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ discourse.

How has disinformation shaped the electoral environment?

Online disinformation is moving at a scale we’ve never seen. In every election, parties try to shape the agenda, but when legions of bots flood social media to do it too, the rules change. Even if all parties use such tactics, it ends up being a matter of who has most resources to spread disinformation.

Media manipulation isn’t new, but its scale is unprecedented. We are constantly analysing campaign visuals and debating images of one candidate shared by another, while armies of trolls are flooding social media with copy-pasted comments on political and non-political posts alike.

Fortunately, civil society is fighting back against these information threats. CSOs are working with teachers to incorporate media literacy in schools, running workshops that equip young people to spot fake news and operating fact-checking services to debunk viral lies. As part of the NGOs for Citizens coalition, CERE launched an offline civic forum focused on TikTok’s role in this campaign to give voters the tools they need to navigate this flood of disinformation.

What are the prospects for the runoff?

Dan now battles for the support of first-round non-voters. Even if he manages to secure most of the votes received by all the other candidates, his electoral prospects appear limited unless he can attract a significant influx of new supporters. The key questions are how many of the 38 per cent who rejected Simeon Dan can persuade to participate and support him, and how effectively an anti-Simeon campaign can mobilise those who previously abstained.

A particularly notable development involves the PSD, Romania’s largest party, which has withdrawn from government and declared neutrality in the runoff, endorsing neither candidate. One optimistic interpretation suggests Dan asked political parties to keep a distance, believing them responsible for the substantial anti-system vote, and perhaps PSD agreed. We must also consider that anti-PSD sentiment has persisted for over a decade, particularly among diaspora voters, making the impact of its potential endorsement uncertain. More likely, however, a weakened PSD is simply distancing itself from the turmoil it helped create, hoping to return strengthened in eight to 10 months. Meanwhile, its loyal voting base now lacks direction, raising questions about whether they will gravitate toward Dan or Simion.

What remains unquestionably clear is that Romania’s continued alignment with Europe hinges entirely on achieving substantial voter participation in this pivotal runoff election.

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SEE ALSO
Romania: ‘People saw this election as an opportunity for change and expressed their dissatisfaction with the status quo’ CIVICUS Lens | Interview with Luliana Lliescu 28.Dec.2024
Romania: Protests erupt after court annuls presidential elections results CIVICUS Monitor 10.Jan.2025
Romania: Protests in Bucharest over election irregularities; government workers go on strike CIVICUS Monitor 30.Jul.2024

 

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