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The proportion of America’s elderly population, currently defined unfortunately as those aged 65 years or older, has increased from 8 percent in 1950 to 18 percent today. Credit: Shutterstock.

By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, US, Feb 3 2025 (IPS)

Many Americans, especially the wealthy and successful, have discovered that the US is facing the scourge of an ageing elderly population that is seriously threatening the nation’s prosperity, economic growth and international standing.

The youthful, dynamic and innovative population of the recent past is being rapidly replaced by an unproductive ageing elderly population that is becoming increasingly costly and dependent on the government for support and care.

The demographic sign posts are clear. The average age of America’s population, for example, shot up from 30 years in 1950 to close to 40 years today. As the scourge endures, the country’s average age is expected to reach 42 years by 2050 and 45 years before the end of the century (Table 1).

 

Source: US Census Bureau.

 

In contrast, the average age of Nigeria’s population, which is the largest in Africa, has remained at 18 years or less since 1950. Moreover, by midcentury, Nigeria’s average age is expected to be a robust 24 years.

In addition to average age, the proportion of America’s elderly population, currently defined unfortunately as those aged 65 years or older, has increased from 8 percent in 1950 to 18 percent today. And by mid-century, a staggering one in four Americans is expected to be elderly according to today’s antiquated definition.

The number of elderly in America is expected to surge from today’s 60 million to more than 80 million by 2050. Also, the number of Americans who are 85 years or older is expected to more than double over the next several decades. Even more troubling, the number of people aged 100 or older is projected to more than triple by mid-century.

Some of the consequences of America’s ageing elderly population include increased health and medical care costs, shrinkage of the labor force, unsustainable financial strains approaching insolvency, rising demands for costly long-term care and financial assistance, less innovation and fewer business startups, reduction in technological adoption, and slowdowns in the nation’s vital economy due to reduced spending by the elderly.

Expenditures on the various woke socialist programs for the elderly, such as Social Security and Medicare, are devouring close to half of the country’s federal budget and contributing to the national debt, which is on course to exceed its record as a share of the economy in the next two years.

The return on investment (ROI) on those costly socialist programs for the elderly is negative, thereby incurring considerable losses for the country.

Stated simply and honestly, as America’s top economists have repeatedly warned, the government’s spending on the woke socialist programs for the elderly is a terrible economic investment for America. The ROI on government expenditures needs to be positive.

Also as a result of America’s scourge of an ageing elderly population, its working age population has not kept pace with the growth of the elderly. In particular, the critical number of people in the working ages per elderly person has decreased dramatically. Whereas in 1940 there were 42 people in the working ages per elderly person, by 1950 that ratio declined to 17. Today the ratio has totally collapsed to 3 and by 2050 is projected to decline to 2 people in the working ages per elderly person (Figure 1).

 

Source: US Census Bureau.

 

Instead of wasting taxpayer dollars on the ageing elderly population, those dollars need to be invested in young Americans who will enthusiastically participate in the labor force. That investment will strengthen America’s economy as well as sustain its primacy in the world.

The fundamental cause of America’s scourge of an ageing elderly population is a low fertility rate. And the country’s low fertility rate is due to women in America choosing to have few or no children.

Unfortunately, America’s fertility rate has collapsed from nearly four births per woman around 1960 to approximately 1.6 births per woman today. The current fertility level is well below the needed replacement level of about two births per woman.

Coupled with the country’s tragically low fertility rate is the worrisome increase in life expectancies among the elderly, especially among the oldest old. Regrettably, America’s elderly are living longer than ever before.

Whereas in 1950 life expectancy at age 65 years was a reasonable 14 years, today it has reached 20 years. Unfortunately, life expectancies of the elderly are expected to continue increasing throughout the remainder of the 21st century.

Fortunately, however, the US president can take actions, Congress can adopt policies and the Supreme Court can render decisions to address and even reverse America’s scourge of an ageing elderly population.

The government should incentivize, promote and encourage young women to have numerous children. Also, they need to emphasize the enormous benefits of families with many children for America’s future.

Policies, programs and legal decisions should facilitate women having numerous children and remain working. Moreover, women with numerous children should receive special consideration and priority in employment, government service and university admissions.

The country’s unproductive nursing homes for the elderly need to be shut down with the elderly currently residing in those institutions returned to their homes and families. Instead of relying on the government’s woke socialist programs for the elderly, families should be responsible for caring for their old and feeble relatives as was the case throughout much of America’s history.

Transferring the costs and care for the elderly from the government to the families of the elderly will rein in the federal budget. It will also reduce the growing and excessive tax burden on hard-working American taxpayers.

Such a transfer will also encourage young women as well as men across America to have numerous children in order to ensure that they will have the needed care and support when they become elderly.

In addition to criminals, illegal migrants aged 65 years or older should be given high priority for return to their home countries. America should also limit legal immigration to healthy, heterosexual men below the age of 30 years and fertile, heterosexual women below the age of 25 years. Doing so will increase the size of the country’s labor force as well as increase America’s low birth rate.

Regarding the many elderly people relying on government funds and assistance, they will be required to join the labor force and become financially independent. Many of them can take over the jobs of the deported illegal migrants as well as provide childcare services. Doing so will help maintain the size of America’s labor force, assist families with young children, contribute to lowering poverty levels among the elderly and also reduce the government’s financial burden on the highly unprofitable programs for the elderly.

Given the troubling increased longevity of both men and women across America, the traditional, antiquated definition of the elderly, which is persons 65 years or older, must be changed in order to be in line with the demographic and economic realities of the 21st century.

With the backing of the Supreme Court, Congress should pass legislation redefining America’s elderly population as men and women who are aged 80 years or older. Such a definitional change would reduce the number of elderly people in America to slightly less than a quarter of its current size (Figure 2).

 

Source: US Census Bureau.

 

Such a common sense and desirable change in the definition of the elderly will significantly increase the size of the country’s labor force. It will also raise the eligibility age for Social Security, Medicare and related programs for the elderly and hence reduce the unprofitable expenditures on those programs.

In sum, the scourge of an ageing elderly population is spreading across the country and undermining America’s economy, prosperity and global standing. In order to halt and reverse the spread of this dreadful scourge, the president must take action with Congress passing legislation and the Supreme Court rendering decisions that will return America to the wonderful, youthful, productive, energetic populations of its recent past. It’s time to make America young again!

 

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

 

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Syrian Civil Defense prepares to remove unexploded munitions of all shapes and types, including landmines. Credit: Sonia Alali/IPS

By Sonia Al Ali
IDLIB, Syria, Feb 3 2025 (IPS)

When 42-year-old Amina al-Hassan’s family returned home after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, her son stood on a landmine.

Hassan, from Kafranbel in southern Idlib countryside, sits beside her son’s bed in the hospital after his leg was amputated following the explosion on agricultural land near their home.

“After the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime and the expulsion of its elements from our city, we went to check on our house, while my son went to inspect the agricultural land near the house. He did not notice a landmine planted among the weeds and plants, and it exploded, amputating his leg,” she told IPS.

Explosive remnants of war and landmines are scattered haphazardly across Syria, endangering the lives of civilians, hindering the return of displaced persons to their cities and villages, and obstructing their agricultural work. The frequency of explosions caused by unexploded ordnance and abandoned explosive ordnance has significantly increased following the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime and the fading of the frontlines between the regime and the opposition, where mines and unexploded ordnance are widely dispersed.

“When I heard the explosion, I ran as fast as lightning towards the source of the sound. When I reached the explosion site, I tried to take out my son myself, but the people present at the scene prevented me from doing so. One of the engineering team specialists took charge of removing the mines around him and took him out, then we rushed him to the nearest hospital in the city,” she said, her voice tinged with sorrow.

The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) confirmed on January 14 that the deadly legacy of landmines and other explosives left behind by years of conflict in Syria had killed more than 100 children in December alone, urging the international community to urgently support mine clearance projects across the country.

According to the Syria Response Coordinators team, the war remnants left by the former Syrian regime continue to claim the lives of Syrians. Since December 8, 2024, explosions of mines and cluster munitions in more than 108 locations in Syria have killed 109 people, including 9 children and 6 women. More than 121 others were injured, including 48 children and one woman.

Rowan al-Kamal (46), from the western Aleppo countryside, visited her home after Syria was liberated from the Assad regime. Unlike many others, she was fortunate, not because her house was intact, but because she noticed an unexploded shell near the house. She recounts, “I moved my children away and called the Syrian Civil Defense, who worked to dismantle it. We were saved from death or injury.”

Kamal adds, “I don’t know how I spotted it amidst the rubble. When I saw it, I was rushing to check what remained of the house. I think my eyes have become accustomed to recognizing shells, as we lived with them throughout the long years of war.”

She reveals that she won’t be able to return to her home due to the presence of landmines and unexploded ordnance, despite living in a makeshift camp with her family of seven and facing extremely harsh conditions, especially with the significant drop in temperatures and the inability of humanitarian organizations to provide the displaced with necessary supplies such as food and heating.

While Kamal and her family survived injury or death, Wael al-Ahmad (22), from Has town in southern Idlib, lost his life after his city was liberated. His mother, Fatima al-Ahmad, recounts, “My son was tending to the sheep on the outskirts of the town and stepped on a landmine without noticing it, causing him severe injuries. He passed away hours later due to his injuries.”

Ahmad calls for intensified efforts to remove these remnants to prevent further casualties and ensure the safe return of the displaced. “The war remnants planted by the Syrian regime and its allies represent a delayed death for Syrians, as they threaten lives and prevent civilians from returning to their homes and farms,” she says tearfully.

Mohammed al-Saeed (32), who works on a war remnants removal team at the Syrian Civil Defense, explains, “War remnants are unexploded munitions of all shapes and types that remain in an area after the end of a war.”

He adds, “War remnants pose a real threat to Syrians in various parts of the country. They are divided into unexploded ordnance such as bombs, rockets, and shells, in addition to landmines.”

Al-Saeed clarifies that the first type is easier to remove and avoid because it can be seen and is usually found above ground. However, the biggest challenge lies in landmines that people cannot see.

Saeed further explained that Syrian government forces planted hundreds of thousands of mines in various regions of Syria, particularly in agricultural lands, military barracks, and frontline areas between the regime and the opposition. He warned that anyone returning to their town, home, or land should be aware that there may be unexploded ordnance present.

According to Saeed, Syrian Civil Defense teams conducted 822 operations to dispose of unexploded ordnance in northwestern Syria between November 27, 2024, and January 3, 2025.

He urged residents to be cautious of strange objects, to avoid touching or moving them, and to report them immediately. Meanwhile, Civil Defense engineering teams continue to conduct daily technical surveys of land contaminated with war remnants and work to dispose of munitions.

Saeed emphasized the need for the international community to work with the new Syrian government and coordinate with it to remove mines by providing funding to expand the Civil Defense’s capacity, hire more personnel, purchase more equipment, and operate in wider areas.

‘The former Syrian regime and its allied militias deliberately planted mines in vital areas, aiming to inflict the maximum number of civilian casualties. This long-term crime represents another facet of their brutal practices,” says Saeed.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Portion of the Jáltipan-Salina Cruz pipeline, which operates between the southeastern state of Veracruz and the southern region of Oaxaca. To meet its industrialization goals, Mexico would have to increase its reliance on fossil gas imported from the United States. Credit: Cenagás

By Emilio Godoy
MEXICO, Jan 31 2025 (IPS)

This January, Mexico has embarked on a new industrial path for the next six years, where the viability of its energy component faces fundamental challenges that put it at risk.

Energy scarcity is among the main obstacles faced by the economic program of President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has been in office since October.

Researcher Luca Ferrari from the Geosciences Center of the public National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) identified limited financial resources and energy supply as barriers to progress.

“There are budgetary and energy quantity constraints. Increased industrialization for export will run into energy shortages or very limited availability, due to necessary investments and where they will come from. We are in a very precarious energy situation because we are dependent on fossil fuels and are energy deficient,” he told IPS."These are isolated projects that may be interesting. They are a statement of intentions, but should be read in light of other public policy instruments, such as climate and transition, along with the need to align with a comprehensive energy policy": Carlos Asunsolo.

Launched on January 13 under the general title of the National Industrialization and Shared Prosperity Strategy, Plan Mexico (PM) consists of 10 objectives, 13 goals, 2,000 projects, and a total planned investment of US$277 billion, which would create 1.5 million new jobs in manufacturing and other sectors.

Among the plan’s investments, which are seen internally as a partial response to the arrival of ultra-conservative Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, is an investment by the state-owned Federal Electricity Commissionx (CFE) of US$23.4 billion.

Of this, US$12.3 billion will be allocated to generation, US$7.5 billion to transmission infrastructure, and US$3.6 billion to decentralized photovoltaic production in homes.

Additionally, the government is preparing rules for the private sector’s renewed participation in electricity generation, a modality suspended since 2018 to favor CFE and also the state-owned Mexican Petroleum (Pemex).

This return would include, among other measures, lower energy purchase costs for the electric monopoly and the use of storage batteries to maintain grid stability.

As a result, the plan would add 21,893 megawatts (MW) to the national energy matrix, aiming to reach a 37.8% of clean energy, up from the current 22.5%. By law, CFE controls 54% of the electricity market, with the rest being in private hands.

At least 17 transmission and distribution projects are under study for implementation at an undetermined time, but their development would be independent of the new PM, which does incorporate several projects already underway, as well as new ones.

With a current installed capacity of 89,000 MW, in 2024 approximately 63% of electricity generation depended on fossil gas, followed by conventional thermoelectricity (6.8%), hydroelectricity (5.9%), wind energy (5.8%), solar photovoltaic (5.2%), nuclear (3%), and geothermal (1%).

Renewable sources have an installed capacity of 33,517 MW but only contribute 22.5% of electricity.

In December 2023, during the annual climate summit in Dubai, Mexico joined the Global Commitment on Renewables and Energy Efficiency, which aims to triple alternative installed capacity and double the energy efficiency rate by 2030. Thus, the PM would fall short of the clean generation target.

The first phase of the Puerto Peñasco photovoltaic plant, with a capacity of 120 megawatts and located in the northern state of Sonora, has been operational since 2023. The Mexican government included the project in its multi-billion-dollar investment for the energy sector. Credit: Government of Mexico

Gasify, baby, gasify

Since December 2018, when Sheinbaum’s predecessor and mentor left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador took office as president, Mexico has pursued the so far unattained goal of energy sovereignty, one of whose effects has been the halt of the transition to less polluting fuels.

Sheinbaum’s new package of projects continues this model but also deviates from its extremes, in what seems like the resurrection of the much-needed energy transition, in a strategy marked by apparent contradictions.

For Carlos Asunsolo, manager of Research and Public Policy at the non-governmental Mexican Center for Environmental Law (Cemda), Plan Mexico lacks specific details, such as the pathways to achieve the goals.

“These are isolated projects that may be interesting. It is a statement of intentions, but it should be read in light of other public policy instruments, such as climate and transition, along with the need to align with a comprehensive energy policy,” he analyzed for IPS.

The expert cited concerns about project execution conditions, their type, human rights guarantees, and transparency.

One of the pillars of PM is promoting the relocation (nearshoring) of companies in sectors such as electronics, high technology, and the automotive industry. This is due to the alteration of global maritime transport routes, the repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the trade dispute between the United States and China.

This section also needs energy and projects progress in the construction of 100 industrial parks, including 12 in the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (CIIT), a megaproject already underway under the responsibility of the Ministry of the Navy.

This corridor in the southeast of the country is one of the three most important legacies of the current government, along with the Maya Train in the southeastern Yucatán Peninsula and the Olmeca refinery in the state of Tabasco, also in the southeast. All three are integrated into the new PM.

The CIIT involves the construction and modernization of three rail routes and three ports between the Pacific coast and the Atlantic Gulf of Mexico.

A lone solar panel powering a water well in the rural community of Tahdzui, in the southeastern Mexican state of Yucatán. The government of Claudia Sheinbaum has shown signs of reviving the clean energy transition, which had been suspended since 2018, including decentralized generation. Credit: Emilio Godoy / IPS

But these facilities, which seek regional development in the southeast and the substitution of imports from Asia, require lots of energy. Existing and planned renewable generation would not be enough in this area, which would lead Mexico to deepen its dependence on gas imported from the United States.

Since 2010, the northern neighbor has sent more than 18 billion cubic feet (ft3) of gas to Mexico via pipelines. In 2023, Mexico consumed 8.514 billion ft3 daily, of which it imported 6.141 billion from the United States, making it the supplier of 72% of all its gas.

Additionally, the López Obrador administration promoted the Sonora Sustainable Energy Plan, which includes photovoltaic energy, lithium exploitation, and electric vehicle manufacturing in the northern state of Sonora, and which is now incorporated into Sheinbaum’s PM.

One of its components is the Puerto Peñasco photovoltaic plant in Sonora, whose first phase of 120 MW has been operational since 2023. When completed in 2026, it will provide 1,000 MW, with a total investment of $1.6 billion.

For Ferrari, the UNAM researcher, the only possibility for more energy to sustain the business promise is gas.

“We are already in a ridiculously dependent situation. In the United States, production has stabilized over the past year, and it is likely to fall in the coming years. Gas delivery to Mexico is not guaranteed,” he predicted.

Meanwhile, specialist Asunsolo considers it essential to question for whom and for what more energy is being generated, the size of the projects, and the fueling of consumption, at a time when the climate crisis is tightening its grip on very vulnerable places like Mexico.

“There is a clear bet for CFE, through gas, and Pemex, through hydrocarbons, to be the main energy policy. We are only swapping one problem for another with the change of source. If it does not translate into a reduction of hydrocarbons, only generation capacity is increased. There is a confusing message,” emphasized the Cemda expert.

As it progresses, the PM will not only have to face energy obstacles, according to analysts, but will also have to navigate the growing water deficit.

Northern Mexico and parts of the center, south, and southeast were experiencing some degree of drought by January 15, raising questions about water availability for the large projects outlined in the new industrial plan.

 

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By CIVICUS
Jan 31 2025 (IPS)

 
CIVICUS discusses activism against oil auctions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) with François Kamate, founder and coordinator of the young environmental volunteer movement Extinction Rebellion Rutshuru.

François Kamate

In October 2024, climate activists in the DRC won the suspension of a controversial oil and gas licence auction that threatened the Congo Basin rainforest and Virunga National Park, two carbon reservoirs that are vital for Africa. The civil society campaign exposed the environmental damage and social costs of oil extraction in these fragile ecosystems. Despite arrests and police violence, campaigners mobilised support through local actions, public protests, petitions and international partnerships. But the suspension is temporary and the government plans to resume auctions. In response, civil society has launched a new campaign, Our Oil-Free Earth.

What’s the current state of oil and gas exploitation in the DRC?

The DRC, a country with unique potential to respond to the global climate crisis, is paradoxically pursuing a policy of auctioning off its oil and gas. Companies such as Alfajiri Energy Corporation, Perenco, Production LLC, Red Winds Exploration and Symbion Power, in collaboration with the political and administrative authorities, have launched tenders to exploit 27 oil blocks and three gas blocks. These areas, which are vital for biodiversity, local communities and the global climate, are now threatened by these projects, which the authorities see as an economic opportunity.

These auctions continue despite the US$500 million agreement signed by the DRC at COP26 to halt deforestation in the Congo Basin. The example of Perenco, which has been exploiting resources in the Central Congo Province for 20 years, illustrates the disastrous consequences: further environmental degradation without any social benefits for local communities.

What would be the consequences of extraction in these ecosystems?

The consequences would be disastrous. In the short term, mining would destroy Upemba National Park, one of the country’s oldest, and Virunga National Park, Africa’s most biodiverse protected area, compromising their crucial role in regulating the global climate. The destruction of peatlands, which store immense amounts of carbon dioxide, would release massive quantities of greenhouse gases, exacerbating the climate crisis. Local communities would be exposed to an increase in respiratory diseases caused by air, soil and water pollution.

In the long term, mining would lead to land expropriation, the disruption of agricultural activities, increased insecurity for thousands of families and massive population displacement. It would also encourage the proliferation of armed groups in protected areas, exacerbating instability and encouraging corruption among the authorities.

What campaign tactics have been effective?

The most effective tactics have been those based on non-violent and peaceful action. We organised peaceful marches to mobilise people and draw attention to our cause. We organised sit-ins in strategic locations to keep the pressure on the authorities. We also used open letters to publicly question politicians and call for boycotts to target companies involved in oil and gas extraction. Public meetings helped raise awareness and mobilise local communities.

‘Dead city’ days – stay-at-home protests – were a symbolic but powerful form of protest, and door-to-door meetings with residents in affected areas strengthened our links with communities. Participatory forums and artistic activities such as musical performances were also essential in spreading our message.

How has the campaign influenced the debate on oil and gas extraction in the DRC?

The campaign has had a significant impact. It exposed the many irregularities in the process of putting oil and gas blocks up for sale. For example, there was a blatant contradiction between the minutes of the Council of Ministers, which announced 16 oil blocks, and the public statements of the Minister of Hydrocarbons, who spoke of 27 oil blocks and three gas blocks, revealing obvious corrupt practices.

Doubts have also been raised about the actual amount of oil available, calling into question the viability of these projects. The inexperience of some of the companies selected, such as Alfajiri, and disputes surrounding some of the blocks put up for sale have also been criticised.

What obstacles have you encountered?

First of all, the ongoing insecurity around some of the protected areas made it difficult to organise our activities. Threats from the authorities and armed groups present in parks such as Virunga were also a major obstacle.

The lack of resources to reach all the communities bordering the oil and gas blocks complicated our work. We also faced bans and repression of protests, intimidation, arrests of activists and interrogations.

To overcome these challenges, we implemented strategic communications, strengthened our international partnerships and adapted our approaches to local realities.

What’s your strategy for dealing with the possible relaunch of auctions?

We have launched a new campaign that will push for the definitive cancellation of the auctions and support for investment in clean and renewable energy. At the same time, we will be demanding that the DRC immediately withdraw from its bilateral agreement with Uganda on the exploitation of hydrocarbons from transboundary resources, given the disastrous impact of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline project on Ugandan people.

In order to achieve permanent cancellation, we need resources to invest in actions on the ground, expand our actions to other platforms, strengthen our links with other structures and organise coaching sessions and online or face-to-face mentoring to support activists in building sustainable social movements. We also need to participate in activist gatherings and international conferences to highlight auction issues and build global support for our cause.

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SEE ALSO
DRC: ‘Civil society action is needed more than ever, but the space in which it can undertake it is getting smaller’ CIVICUS Lens | Interview with Bahati Rubango 13.Apr.2024
DRC: ‘Civil society is targeted by politicians who see it as an obstacle to their power’ CIVICUS Lens | Interview with Jonathan Magoma 08.Feb.2024
DRC: ‘Defending the environment means becoming the target of politicians and businesspeople’ CIVICUS Lens | Interview with Guillaume Kalonji 02.Aug.2023

 

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