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Credit: WaterAid/ DRIK/ Habibul Haque

By Tim Wainwright
LONDON, Jan 31 2020 (IPS)

There was only one topic on everyone’s lips at Davos this year – climate change. The headlines focused on the cold war between Greta Thunberg and Donald Trump, but there was much greater consensus among those gathered for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF).

The Forum itself updated its manifesto for responsible business – with climate right at its core.

Among those calling for urgent action was WaterAid’s own president, His Royal Highness the Prince of Wales. It’s more than 30 years since he last attended Davos and, as he reminded the audience, 50 years since he made his first speech on the environment.

His message was stark, and his call to action challenging: the climate emergency requires nothing less than an overhaul of the current economy, with a new deal for people and planet.

The mood is slowly shifting towards the scale of action needed, given that climate change will affect every part of the economy. This cannot be truer than for water – the WEF has ranked water crises in its top five global risks in terms of likelihood or impact every year since 2012.

Infographic showing the top 10 risks over the next 10 years, according to the World Economic Forum’s 2020 report. Credit: World Economic Forum

The climate crisis is a water crisis, and a threat multiplier

Throughout the forum I had one consistent message: for the world’s poorest, the climate crisis is a water crisis. Yes, it has long-term implications for your businesses and economies. But, first and foremost, it is a question of survival, dignity and justice, with climate change already having devastating impacts on the lives of the people who did least to cause it.

Flooding, storms and droughts, which all impact on how and if people can get clean water, are becoming more frequent and extreme, and these trends are predicted to rise as the climate continues to change. This will undermine the already precarious access to water for billions around the world.

Climate change acts as a huge threat multiplier, worsening existing barriers to these services and rolling back progress already made.

As people living in climate-vulnerable areas experience changing weather patterns, less predictable rainfall, salt water intrusion and increased exposure to disease, water and sanitation become a critical line of defence.

If your water supply comes from a shallow aquifer that fills with sea water, then you can no longer drink it. But if the person designing your water supply has thought of this threat and factored it in, perhaps by drawing on deeper aquifers, then you can carry on living in your neighbourhood.

If your toilets and sanitation systems are constructed to withstand flooding, then your community does not suffer the same level of contamination after flooding as if human waste had been spread by the high waters.

The water and sanitation sector could become a leader in climate adaptation

But we currently lack the level of public and private sector investment and innovation required to deliver the sustainable water services that would benefit poverty reduction, industry and economic development.

This is a huge blind spot for business leaders and politicians, and a missed opportunity for creating a more sustainable future.

Rather than lagging behind, the water and sanitation sector could become a leader in delivering the kind of green infrastructure, services and jobs urgently required to enable adaptation to the worst impacts of climate change.

Tim Wainwright, Chief Executive of WaterAid UK, speaking with Hassan Nasir Jamy, Secretary Ministry of Climate Change, at Pakistan’s Ministry of Climate Change in Islamabad, Pakistan. Credit: WaterAid/ Sibtain Haider

Water, sanitation and hygiene are core to a sustainable future

Leaving Davos last year, I was frustrated. I felt that too few understood or discussed the impact climate change would have on the already grave state of the world’s water and sanitation, and the devastating consequences for education, health, productivity and development.

This year, I sensed a greater understanding of the interlinked challenges we face, and with that an air of urgency and proactivity. Businesses are looking for solutions – not just raising concerns.

That is why WaterAid will be one of the organisations working closely with HRH the Prince of Wales as part of his 2020 year of action.

In March, in London, we will bring together the public, private and philanthropic sectors for a high-level summit that will position water, sanitation and hygiene at the forefront of the fight against climate, and work on the solutions that will ensure a sustainable future for all.

And we will continue that work across the WaterAid federation throughout the year, including at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Kigali in June, and at the UN Climate Change Conference, COP 26, in Glasgow in November, to help build momentum for decisive action.

In this way we hope WaterAid can play its part in shifting the global trajectory in the coming decade, resulting in a fairer world for the poorest and most marginalised people.

Read our guide Water and resilient business: the critical role of water, sanitation and hygiene in a changing climate to learn more about how businesses can take action.

The post Our Message at Davos: Water & Sanitation Are a Critical Line of Defence Against Climate Change appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

Tim Wainwright is Chief Executive of WaterAid UK.

The post Our Message at Davos: Water & Sanitation Are a Critical Line of Defence Against Climate Change appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Passengers wear face masks while riding the subway in Shenzhen, China. Credit: UN News/Jing Zhang.

By External Source
UNITED NATIONS, Jan 31 2020 (IPS)

The rise in new coronavirus cases outside China, now constitutes a global health emergency, the World Health Organization’s Emergency Committee declared on Thursday, calling on all countries to take urgent measures to contain the respiratory disease.

Latest WHO figures state there are more than 7,800 confirmed cases globally, with 7,736 confirmed in China, and a further 12,167 suspected cases inside the country where the outbreak began in Wuhan, a city of around 11 million which remains in lockdown.

 

Latest figures

So far, 170 people have died in China, and 1,370 cases there are officially described as severe. A total of 124 have recovered and been discharged from hospital.

Outside China, there are 82 confirmed cases, in 18 different countries, and only seven had no history of travel in China.

“There has been human-to-human transmission in three countries outside China”, according to a statement released by WHO’s Emergency Committee. “One of these cases is severe and there have been no deaths.”

“The Committee believes that it is still possible to interrupt virus spread, provided that countries put in place strong measures to detect disease early, isolate and treat cases, trace contacts, and promote social distancing measures commensurate with the risk.”

When the committee met last week, there were “divergent views” on whether the outbreak which began last month, constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), but the expert body convened by the WHO Director-General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, was in agreement on Thursday.

 

Chinese leadership welcomed

“The main reason for this declaration is not what is happening in China, but what is happening in other countries”, said the WHO chief, praising the “extraordinary measures” taken there by authorities.

“China quickly identified the virus and shared its sequence, so that other countries could diagnose it quickly and protect themselves, which has resulted in rapid diagnostic tools”, said the statement from the Committee.

With concern rising that less developed countries will be more vulnerable, China has agreed to work internationally, with others who need support and “the measures China has taken are good not only for that country, but also for the rest of the world”, the statement added.

However, there remain “many unknowns”, the Committee warned, concerning the speed and spread of the epidemic.

 

Virus can be contained

“The Committee believes that it is still possible to interrupt virus spread, provided that countries put in place strong measures to detect disease early, isolate and treat cases, trace contacts, and promote social distancing measures commensurate with the risk.”

Mr. Tedros tweeted following the meeting: “We must remember that these are people, not numbers. More important than the declaration of a public health emergency are the committee’s recommendations for preventing the spread…and ensuring a measured and evidence-based response.”

 

Travel and trade should continue

He said there was there was “no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. We call on all countries to implement decisions that are evidence-based and consistent. WHO stands ready to provide advice to any country that is considering what measures to take.”

The Committee said evidence has shown that restricting the movement of people and goods during public health emergencies “may be ineffective and may divert resources from other interventions.

“Further, restrictions may interrupt needed aid and technical support, may disrupt businesses and may have negative effects” on the economies of those countries affected.

 

Advice to China:

The Committee is advising China to:

• continue to implement a “comprehensive risk communication strategy”, regularly informing the population on developments. Public health measures need to be enhanced to contain the virus, and the resilience of the health system ensured, while health-workers are protected.
• Enhance surveillance and active case finding.
• Collaborate with WHO and partners to investigate and understand the spread and evolution of the disease.
• Share full data on all human cases.
• Strengthen the efforts to identify the animal-to-human source of the infection, and “particularly the potential for ongoing circulation with WHO as soon as it becomes available.”
• Exit screening at international airports and ports, for early detection.

 

Other countries

“Countries are reminded that they are legally required to share information with WHO” now the health emergency is officially declared, said the Committee.

Despite encouraging countries not to impose blanket restrictions on trade and travel, “in certain specific circumstances, measures that restrict the movement of people may prove temporarily useful, such as in settings with limited response capacities and capabilities, or where there is high intensity of transmission among vulnerable populations.”

WHO is calling for greater support for low- and middle-income countries, to support their reponse to any cases, and allow them access to vaccines and drugs, as well as better surveillance and diagnostic tools.

 

Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) advice for the public.WHO

 

This story was originally published by UN News

The post Coronavirus Spread Now a Global Emergency Declares World Health Organization appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Alejandro Werner is Director of the Western Hemisphere Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

By Alejandro Werner
WASHINGTON DC, Jan 30 2020 (IPS)

Economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean stagnated in 2019, continuing with the weak growth momentum of the previous five years and adding more urgency and new challenges to reignite growth.

Indeed, real GDP per capita in the region has declined by 0.6 percent per year on average during 2014–2019—a sharp contrast from the commodity boom’s average increase of two percent per year during 2000–2013.

This weak momentum reflects structural and cyclical factors. On the structural side, potential growth remains constrained by low investment, slow productivity growth, a weak business climate, and the low quality of infrastructure and education.

On the cyclical side, growth has been held back by low global growth and commodity prices, elevated economic policy uncertainty, economic rebalancing in some economies, and social unrest in others.

Regional challenges

Elevated policy uncertainty in several large Latin American countries continues to weigh on growth. For example, uncertainty about the course of economic policy and reforms in Brazil and Mexico likely contributed to the slowdown in real GDP and investment growth in 2019.

Continued economic rebalancing in stressed economies that experienced sudden stops in capital flows in 2018-19 (Argentina, Ecuador), while helping restore internal and external balances, have also acted as a drag on economic growth.

More recently, a few countries in the region experienced social unrest—Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, and Ecuador—which, in some cases, disrupted economic activity. Economic policy uncertainty has also risen in these countries as governments consider alternative policies and reforms to make growth more inclusive and address social demands.

Outlook and risks

As noted in the recent World Economic Outlook update, growth in the region is projected to rebound to 1.6 percent in 2020 and 2.3 percent in 2021—supported by a gradual pick up in global growth and commodity prices, continued monetary support, reduced economic policy uncertainty, and a gradual recovery in stressed economies.

However, there are also prominent downside risks. While previous external downside risks have moderated following globally synchronized monetary policy easing and the signing of the U.S.-China phase one trade deal, some new risks have appeared, including the potential global spread of the coronavirus, which could significantly disrupt global economic activity, trade, and travel.

Domestic and regional downside risks have also intensified. Social unrest could spike throughout the region, while economic policy uncertainty could rise further due to both heightened social tensions and policy slippages.

Policy priorities

Economic policies will need to strike a balance between rebuilding policy space and maintaining economic stability on the one hand and supporting economic activity and strengthening the social safety net on the other hand.

Although the causes and triggers of social unrest have varied across countries, they generally reflect discontent with some aspects of the economic and political systems. A key priority going forward is to reignite growth, while making it more inclusive.

Promoting competition will be important to avoid monopolistic practices that may hurt the poor disproportionally. Tackling corruption and weak governance will help make political systems more representative, although deeper political reforms may be needed.

Fiscal policy will need to support to growth, expand the social safety net, and improve the quality of public goods and services. However, in many countries, spending room in the budget remains constrained by high deficits and public debt.

These countries will need to improve spending efficiency, reallocate spending from nonpriority areas to public investment and social transfers and increase revenues over the medium term to finance additional increases in these areas.

Monetary policy can remain accommodative to support growth given the stable inflation outlook, well-anchored inflation expectations, and declining neutral rates worldwide.

South America

In Brazil, growth remained subdued at 1.2 percent in 2019, but is projected to accelerate to 2.2 percent in 2020 due to improving confidence following the approval of the pension reform and lower monetary policy interest rates in the context of low inflation.

Steady implementation of the government’s broad fiscal and structural reform agenda will be essential to safeguard public debt sustainability and boost potential growth.

In Chile, the outlook is subject to uncertainty resulting from social unrest and the evolving policy responses to the social demands. Following a sharp decline in late 2019, economic activity is expected to recover gradually supported by a significant fiscal expansion and looser monetary policy, with growth reaching about 1 percent in 2020.

In Colombia, strong domestic demand led to a pickup in growth to 3.3 percent in 2019 and a widening of the current account deficit to 4½ percent of GDP. Growth is projected to accelerate to around 3½ percent in 2020 due to continued monetary support, migration from Venezuela, remittances, civil works and higher investment due to recent tax policy changes.

In Peru, growth is estimated to have slowed to 2.4 percent in 2019, hampered by lower global trade and under-execution of government spending. With these factors dissipating in the coming years, growth is projected to recover to 3.2 percent in 2020 and 3.7 percent in 2021, with inflation remaining well-anchored within the central bank’s target range.

Venezuela remains immersed in a deep economic and humanitarian crisis. Since the end of 2013, real GDP has contracted by 65 percent driven by declining oil production, hyperinflation, collapsing public services, and plummeting purchasing power.

A continuation of these trends is projected for 2020, although at a slower pace. The acute humanitarian crisis has led to one of the largest migratory crises in history, with migration to neighboring countries expected to surpass 6 million—20 percent of the population—by 2020.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean

In Mexico, economic activity stagnated in 2019 due to policy uncertainty and slower global and U.S. manufacturing production. Growth is expected to recover to 1 percent in 2020 as conditions normalize, including with the ratification of the trade agreement between the United States, Mexico, and Canada (USMCA) and the recent easing of monetary policy, which should continue as along as inflation expectations are well-anchored.

Fiscal policy should be geared at putting the public debt-to-GDP ratio on a downward trajectory, with priority on increasing revenues, improving the efficiency of spending, and enhancing the fiscal framework.

In Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic growth is projected to rebound to 3.9 percent in 2020, from 3.2 percent in 2019, supported by the beginning of operations of a large copper mine in Panama, and accommodative monetary policy in Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic. In Costa Rica, continued implementation of all measures in the fiscal reform bill will be key to rebuild market confidence and fiscal space.

In Honduras, the economic plan includes important efforts to improve institutional, governance, and anti-corruption frameworks supporting business confidence, while Guatemala is expected to continue benefitting from a fiscal impulse and economic reform plans of the new administration.

El Salvador is already reaping the effects of the pro-growth agenda of the new administration inaugurated in June, while unfavorable political tensions in Nicaragua are creating a significant headwind to economic recovery.

In the Caribbean, economic prospects are improving, but with substantial variation across countries. Growth in tourism-dependent economies is expected to strengthen in 2020. With commodity prices remaining broadly stable, commodity exporters are expected to see modest recovery in growth, while large oil discoveries and the start of their production in 2020 is expected to boost growth in Guyana.

The region’s exposure to climate risks continues to require strong policies. Potential growth continues to be impeded by lingering structural problems including high public debt, weaker financial systems, high unemployment, and vulnerability to commodity and climate-related shocks.

Some countries have started to strengthen their fiscal positions, but further tightening is needed in others to ensure debt sustainability.

*IMFBlog is a forum for the views of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and officials on pressing economic and policy issues of the day. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF and its Executive Board.

The post New Challenges to Growth in Latin America & the Caribbean appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

Alejandro Werner is Director of the Western Hemisphere Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The post New Challenges to Growth in Latin America & the Caribbean appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Credit: Palestine Campaign.Org

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Jan 30 2020 (IPS)

The Israeli human rights organization B’Tselem has described the much-ballyhooed US Middle East peace plan as “more like Swiss cheese– with the cheese being offered to the Israelis and the holes to the Palestinians”.

“There are many ways to end the occupation, but the only legitimate options are those based on equality and human rights for all,” said the Jerusalem-based B’Tselem, the Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories.

“This is why the current plan which legitimizes, entrenches and even expands the scope of Israel’s human rights abuses, perpetuated now for over 52 years, is utterly unacceptable”, it said.

The Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, based in Johannesburg, drew a parallel between Israel and apartheid South Africa of a bygone era.

“We concur with our Israeli comrades, and we painfully recall how Apartheid South Africa tried to impose its own plan during the 1980s where white people would own South Africa and the indigenous Black South Africans needed to be happy with small enclaves called Bantustans.”

“We rejected this then in Apartheid South Africa, and we, today, join those in rejecting it in Palestine-Israel,” said BDS in a statement released here.

Mouin Rabbani, co-editor Jadaliyya, an ezine focusing on the Middle East and produced by the Arab Studies Institute (ASI), told IPS the Trump Plan is not a peace initiative, that seeks to lay the basis for meaningful negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians to resolve the core issues of the conflict.

Rather, it seeks to unilaterally implement a permanent status reality that is tantamount to the extreme reaches of the Israeli political spectrum, with the imprimatur of US recognition and legitimacy, he said.

Any analyst with even a passing acquaintance of this conflict can immediately recognize that it cannot possibly serve as a basis of negotiations, let alone a negotiated settlement, because it prejudges virtually every Palestinian right, claim, and interest, Rabbani argued.

“This is deliberate — the references to negotiations are no more than a diplomatic fig leaf to enable Israeli to proceed unilaterally with acts of territorial annexation, the liquidation of the refugee question, the transfer of Arab citizens of Israel to Palestinian jurisdiction (thus removing there status as Israeli citizens), and the like,” he added.

Credit: PalestineUN.Org

Ramzy Baroud, a syndicated columnist, editor of The Palestine Chronicle and a senior research fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs in Istanbul, told IPS the Deal of the Century is a complete American acquiescence to the right-wing mentality that has ruled Israel for more than a decade.

This is certainly not an American peace overture, he pointed out, but an egregious act of bullying.

However, it is hardly a deviation from previous rounds of “peace-making,” where Washington always took Israel’s side, blamed Palestinians and failed to hold Tel Aviv accountable to its violations of previously signed treaties and international law, he noted.

“In truth, the Deal of the Century is not a ‘peace plan’, nor was it ever intended to be, despite what its chief architect and White House adviser Jared Kushner has been claiming”.

As expected, said Baroud, Trump has handed Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu everything that he and Israel ever wanted.

He also pointed out that the Middle East Plan does not demand the uprooting of a single illegal Jewish settlement and recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s ‘undivided’ capital.

“It speaks of a conditioned and disfigured Palestinian state that can only be achieved based on vague conditions, rejects the Right of Return for Palestinian refugees, and doesn’t mention the word ‘occupation’ even once”, said Baroud, author of the newly-released book These Chains Will Be Broken: Palestinian Stories of Struggle and Defiance in Israeli Prisons.

According to Cable News Network (CNN), the Trump administration unveiled its much-anticipated Middle East plan, which it’s touting as a “realistic two-state solution.”

But Palestinians definitely don’t see it that way. The plan caters to nearly every major Israeli demand, including the annexation of its settlements in the contested West Bank region, said CNN.

“A future Palestinian state, meanwhile, would get a capital in eastern Jerusalem, physically separated from the rest of the city. The plan doesn’t lay out what would happen to Palestinian refugees displaced by ongoing conflict”.

In a brutally frank comment, Robert Malley, president of the International Crisis Group, was quoted as saying: “The message to the Palestinians, boiled down to its essence, is: You’ve lost, get over it.”

Rabbani said the peace plan is also not a framework for a two-state settlement.

“The potential Palestinian entity presented in the initiative, assuming it comes to pass, does not have any – I repeat, any – of the attributes of statehood as commonly understood.”

He said its objective is not the establishment of a Palestinian state but rather the permanent expansion of the Israeli state into occupied territory, less those areas heavily populated by Palestinians that Israel does not intend to annex.

The Palestinian entity, or rather the patchwork of Palestinian-populated regions within Israel according to this plan, are held together by some 15 bridges and tunnels, he noted.

“The purpose here is not Palestinian statehood, but rather achieving Israel’s long-term objective of maximum territory with minimum Arabs – an objective additionally furthered by the proposed transfer of Palestinian population centers within Israel to the jurisdiction of this entity”.

The broader purpose of this initiative, he argued, is to utilize the weakness, fragmentation, and polarisation of the Palestinians, and the Arab world more generally, to ram through a unilateral settlement of this conflict while the opportunity presents itself.

A second objective is to facilitate the formalisation of Israeli-Arab normalisation, though given the contours of this plan that is unlikely to be achieved.

In a word, the formalisation of Palestinian capitulation to not only Israel but a particularly extremist Israeli agenda, he declared.

More broadly, said Rabbani, it seeks to replace international law and the international consensus with the principle that might makes right and thus the law of the jungle in which power is the sole principle for the resolution of international disputes.

From the Trump administration’s perspective this therefore has much broader application than only the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he declared.

Baroud said the so-called ‘Deal of the Century’ has confirmed what many have argued for years: a just and peaceful future in Palestine and Israel cannot be achieved with Washington at the helm.

“So obviously only Israel benefits from the plan, as the Zionist discourse, predicated on maximum territorial gains with minimal Palestinian presence, has finally prevailed.”

He said every Israeli request has been met, to the last one. Meanwhile, Palestinians get nothing, aside from the promise of chasing another mirage of a Palestinian state that has no territorial continuity and no true sovereignty.

Not only will Trump’s plan fail to resolve the conflict, he argued, it will exasperate it as well; it will divide the region into blocs, with some Arabs normalization with Israel and others refusing to do so, especially while Palestinians continue to live in perpetual suffering.

As for the economic component of Trump’s plan, history has proven that there can be no economic prosperity under military occupation. Netanyahu and others before him tried such dubious methods, of ‘economic peace’ and such, and all have miserably failed.

“Time and again, the UN has made it clear that it follows a different political trajectory than that followed by Washington, and that all US decisions regarding the status of Jerusalem, the illegal settlements and the Golan Heights, are null and void; only international law matters, and none of Trump’s actions in recent years have succeeded in significantly altering international consensus on the rights of Palestinians”.

As for the status of and Palestinian rights in their occupied city, said Baroud, East Jerusalem, renaming a few neighborhoods – Kafr Aqab, the eastern part of Shuafat and Abu Dis – as al-Quds, or East Jerusalem is an old Israeli plan that failed in the past.

The late Yasser Arafat rejected it, and neither Mahmoud Abbas or any other Palestinian official would dare compromise on the historic and legal Palestinian rights in the city.

The writer can be contacted at thalifdeen@ips.org

The post US Mideast Peace Plan: Israelis Offered the Cheese & Palestinians the Holes appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Wuhan City has a population of over 11 million. Credit: Tauno Tõhk/CC by 2.0

By Fei Chen
Jan 30 2020 (IPS)

On January 23, the authorities of Wuhan City, China, sealed off the motorways and shut down all public transport to stop the coronavirus outbreak from spreading. Shortly afterwards, at least ten other cities in China were under quarantine orders, most of them located in the areas surrounding Wuhan.

It sounds unbelievable to quarantine a city of 11 million people, but it may work because movement within and between cities in China relies heavily on public transport infrastructure. Major cities in China are well connected by airports, express railways, motorways and long-distance buses. Once the entry points of these transport routes are controlled and patrolled, people cannot easily get out.

Fei Chen, Senior Lecturer, Architecture, University of Liverpool

The transport infrastructure is built by the state and over 90% funded by public money, so control remains in the hands of the authorities. The one-party government in China also helps to effectively implement such a strategy.

Another reason this containment strategy may work is that major Chinese cities are large and dense. Wuhan has an urban area of 1,528km2, which makes it extremely difficult for people to walk out of the city if they are not able to take public transport or travel on the motorways using private cars.

People who live on the periphery of the city may still be able to get out through small local road networks that mainly lead to villages or the countryside. As long as the major roads are closed off, they are not able to reach other major cities with a large, concentrated population and the quarantine remains effective.

Megacity regions

The urbanisation process facilitated by the Chinese state results in big cities surrounded by smaller cities, towns and counties. This form of city cluster, known as megacity regions, are a recent phenomenon in China and their development
has been driven by both political and economic factors. The Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are the most well known megacity regions, holding enormous economic power and attracting labourers regionally and nationally.

Wuhan and its surrounding cities, towns and counties holds a similar status in central China thanks to its strategic location on the Yangtze River and national railway network. The local authority’s Great Wuhan Economic Region plan is intended to promote Wuhan in efforts to become comparable to the aforementioned megacity regions.

Megacity regions are connected by transport routes and mostly developed around transport nodes, at both the regional and neighbourhood scales. This so-called transit-oriented development means that if the entry points of public transport are closed off in cities of the whole region, to a large extent, people are controlled in the region.

Chinese New Year

For more than three decades, Chinese urbanisation has seen large scale domestic migration. People from the countryside and smaller cities and towns move to big cities for more work opportunities and better education and healthcare. Chinese New Year is most important occasion when people return to their home towns to celebrate the festival with their families.

The coronavirus containment measures coincided with the national movement for the New Year celebration. This massive movement of people, if not controlled, would be a serious threat to containing the virus. People were advised against long-distance travel and the New Year holiday has been extended into February. These measures are to make sure movement within the country is restricted as much as possible. Workers will stay in their home cities as their returns are suspended.

The containment measures in Wuhan and other cities are likely to continue until further studies of the virus suggest other effective solutions. At the current moment, international travellers from China have all been checked at airports and some flights have been cancelled.

Cities nowadays rely on complex systems to operate. The concentration of labour and resources may enable efficiency but leaves them vulnerable to attacks. The outbreak put enormous pressure on Wuhan’s healthcare system as people can only seek treatment in the city. A few high-ranked hospitals in Wuhan possess the best resources, but they cannot cope with the healthcare demand from large groups at the same time. Two new hospitals are being built in Wuhan to deal with the coronavirus outbreak. They are expected to be completed on February 3rd and 5th respectively and provide 2,300 beds in total.

In the foreseeable future digital technologies and smart city measures may also play a role in dealing with pressure on health infrastructure by, for instance, reporting cases and coordinating the allocation of resources. Wuhan has a reputation for the active integration of smart technologies in urban management.

Although effective, sealing off an entire city or region should always be a last resort. It will surely have a negative social impact and damage the economy.

Fei Chen is a senior lecturer of architecture, University of Liverpool

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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The seed bank at Navdanya, and (right) Vandana Shiva at the organic farm. Courtesy: Sapna Gopal

By Sapna Gopal
HIMALAYAS, India, Jan 30 2020 (IPS)

Vandana Shiva, a pioneer of organic farming in India, is incensed by the 2019 draft law to compulsorily register all seeds used by farmers. On a wintry afternoon, at her farm Navdanya in the Himalayan foothills, the noted ecologist spoke on the future of the organic farming movement in India. Excerpts:

Q: What is your view on the Himalayas? How different from the plains is it as a terrain?

A: Agriculture in the Himalayas is diverse because every valley is different, every slope is different, every altitude is different – the North and South faces are different. So, biodiversity is even more important for mountainous regions and for the Himalayas in particular. This is because the difference between Himalayas and other mountains is, for instance in the Alps, there is snow in the winter and there is no agriculture during that time – our peak agriculture season is the monsoon and we get it in four months. So, to not consider biodiversity while planning agriculture is a recipe for ecological disaster as it was for forestry which is why the Chipko movement started – which is how I started my ecological life, 45 years ago.

Q: Do you think there is a revolution in organic farming in India? Do you think the demand for organic produce is much more now and there’s heightened awareness in this regard? If yes, is this good news for the Indian market and the overseas market?

A: There are three levels on which the awareness on organic is growing — we have all worked for 35 years to build this movement. Beginning with a network of people concerned, we started Samvardhan, from Gandhi’s ashram in the early 80s. Then, my book, Violence of the green revolution, is the work that made me realise that we had to give up chemicals and move to organic. So, in a lot of places, it is a revolution happening because the green revolution has destroyed water (since it uses ten times the water). As a result, people are shifting, because there’s no way we can continue to deplete the last drop of water. Farmers are also shifting because the cost of chemical agriculture is so high that it is trapping farmers in debt – 77% of them are in debt. This is for input purchase, not for marriages or wastage of money, but for input of agriculture that’s based on chemicals. Also, it is capital intensive and the fact is that there are 400,000 suicides among indebted peasants in India [over the last few decades]. All these are helping farmers wake up to the fact that this kind of agriculture is not for them.

Then, there are people in the cities who are realising that most of their health problems are related to food and we know that chronic diseases are food related. This being the case, it’s better to shift to organic since it is the best medicine. As Ayurveda says, annam sarvodayi [food as universal upliftement], so that is the shift.

Over the years, I have worked with many states and we have helped around seven of them make a shift towards organic policies. They include Uttarakhand, Kerala (where the movement is very strong and is spreading very fast), Madhya Pradesh, Sikkim (the first 100% organic state in the world), Bihar and Odisha. Now, the government in Odisha has declared an organic policy and our colleagues in Odisha are on the board of the organic policy team. Ladakh as a region (before all the political changes), declared itself organic.

Outside India, the government of Bhutan is totally committed to moving towards organic, and we have helped give advice. So, it is a movement that must grow because there is no other way to farm. In any case, the big companies that draw the chemicals are saying, we don’t need farmers now. We will do farming without farmers. And worse, they are also saying, we don’t need food either – we will just cook together constituents in the lab – so between no farmer and no food, the alternative that will work, for the farmer, for the earth, for the people who have to eat, will be organic. So, no matter how much of a denial takes place, this is the future.

Q: Do you think there is a problem in terms of certification for organic farmers? Are there some policies which could help address this issue?   

A: In the first instance, I remember going into the commerce ministry and saying, why on earth are organic standards being set by the commerce ministry? Our certification is too heavily driven by European standards. I was on the National Organic Board and we said that farmers can’t afford this – so, what was done was that we created group certification. In fact, Navdanya works through group certification — 100 farmers get together and then the overheads come down. In 2018, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) tried to take over the organic standards and were going to make it impossible for any farmer to distribute food, even locally, without certification cost. I recollect fighting it out and saying, “No, where farmers are growing food either for themselves or those they know and directly selling it, the state will not enter in that domain, you don’t need certification, you need relationship,” and we managed to get that exclusion in the national law.

However, it’s a permanent fight because there are those who do want to destroy the small farmer. Which is why for us in Navdanya, from the time I founded it, it is beej swaraj (seed sefl-rule) and ann swaraj (food self-rule) – so, we have to have swaraj (self-rule, freedom) in our seed  and in our food.

We wrote the laws on seed, we got rid of patenting in our laws, we wrote the farmers rights law. I have been part of drafting these laws, 10 to 15 years ago, and we did a satyagraha against seed law that would have made compulsory registration of seed, like compulsory certification of food. However, they have come back with a worse draft in 2019, something that was defeated in 2004. So, you can see that the powers of the industry are strong.

Q: We have witnessed a lot of suicides by farmers in India. Where does the solution lie?

A: The solution comes from understanding the cause, which is debt. Due to debt, there is loss of the land of the farmer. Of all the suicides that I have studied, if I have been in a region where the farmer has committed suicide, the story always goes that the latter went to his field to take one last look,  bought pesticide, and drank it in his field.

Why doesn’t a farmer commit suicide in his home and why the field? That is because in India, most smallholder farmers have received that land through generations of farming and the day the creditors, who are agents of the corporations, come to say that now your land is ours because you did not pay the debt – if he says he never mortgaged his land, he is told that he signed a paper – the shock of being cheated, the disaster of feeling he has betrayed mother earth, all his ancestors who had this land, is what leads to these suicides.

So, why does the farmer get into debt? I watched this in the area of BT Cotton – they are told to sign a piece of paper. The seeds are given for free, but the farmer does not realise he is being piled under debt. Worse, the seeds keep failing, because they are not designed for a drought prone area and are hybrids. They can’t be saved, they can’t control pests – therefore, all these false promises that are made, compel the farmer to constantly go back to the market and take more and more seed, not realising that it is all on credit.

I think it is wrong for a government to say replace your seed and take bad seeds – what kind of government is this? Forcing bad seeds in the name of seed replacement for farmers – it is really anti-national, which is why I do satyagraha against all this. The government’s public breeding has stopped – I filed an RTI (Right to Information petition) and wanted to know how many seeds the Cotton Research Institute had released and why farmers are not buying it. It was found that there wasn’t a single release in Vidarbha.

When I did a study and did not see an alternative, I decided we would bring back the old cotton seed. In villages where we work in, 60% of the (genetically modified) BT cotton has gone.

**This story was first published by Thirdpole.net. You can read it here.

The post ‘Organic is the Future’ appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Idriss Moumin, president of the Association for the Physically Disabled in Djibouti, says that understanding, dignity and honouring of rights of the disabled are very important for inclusive education. Credit: Stella Paul/IPS

By Stella Paul
DJIBOUTI CITY, Jan 29 2020 (IPS)

Neema Namdamu, 42, grew up in the village of Bukavu in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo where children with disabilities were considered a curse.

As a child Namdamu contracted polio, leaving her paralysed from the waist down. Her neighbours advised her mother to do what they felt was the “right thing”: to leave the child alone in a hut until she died of starvation.

However, thanks to her mother who refused to give in to the community’s demand, Namdamu lived and went on to attend school and pursue her studies all the way to post graduate level.

But, all through the years of her education, she struggled just to get to her classrooms.

“Not a single educational institute – be that school or college or university – had a disabled-friendly building. I cried while climbing the stairs everyday,” recalls Nmadamu. She has since founded Mama Shuja – an NGO which gives vocational training including computer operating, data entry, digital story telling, tailoring and handicrafts to young girls and women with disabilities living in eastern DRC’s conflict areas.

Nmadamu is attending the 3rd International Summit on Balanced and Inclusive Education currently being held in Djibouti City, Djibouti. Organised by the Education Relief Foundation (ERF), there are over 200 delegates and government representatives from over 35 countries currently in the Horn of Africa nation.

But the government representative from the DRC is absent. And Namadamu says that this reflects the overall lack of awareness about the importance of education in her country.

Making more learning institutions disability-friendly is key for inclusive education

Idriss Moumin is a passionate advocate of inclusiveness. As the President of the Association for People with Disabilities in Djibouti, and someone who lives with total visual impairment, he strongly wants all the disabled people in his country to be able to access education as their right.

Understanding the special needs and rights of people with disabilities is one of the issues discussed at the summit, but Moumin feels the level of understanding hasn’t matched his expectations.

“I have been hearing several speakers say phrases and terms like ‘we are doing this for them (disabled) and ‘normal people’’. I want to remind them, this is not about giving a handout, but providing (for those with disabilities) what is their right. And who are these normal people? Am I then an abnormal person?” asks Moumin.

• In Djibouti – a country of less than a million people, there are 10,500 people with various degrees of disabilities, according to an ongoing population survey. The complete data from the survey will be released only in February, but for now it is assumed that there are about 600 students and about 300 are in early years of school.

“Our main issues are accessibility, equipment and social acceptance. We lack transportation and roads and learning materials. We definitely need resources to fill these gaps. But, there is an equal need for providing these facilities as a right. For example, we should get jobs because we have our rights to employment, not because we need compassion,” Moumin tells IPS.

• According to the World Bank estimates, globally one billion people experience some form of disability. Of those, it is estimated that 93 to 150 million are children. According to Plan International these children are 10 times less likely to go to school than other children.
• And when they do attend, it is likely to be in a segregated setting. Historically, children with disabilities have been excluded from the general education system and placed in ‘special schools’. In some cases, they are separated from their families and placed in long-term residential institutions where they are educated in isolation from the community, if they are educated at all.

Investing in disabled-friendly schools in Niger

But, according to UNESCO, one of the biggest reasons why children with disabilities don’t access education, even if education policies are inclusive, is because of the lack of disabled-friendly school buildings and suitable learning materials.

• Niger is the largest country in west Africa. But according to the latest data published by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), on average a person goes to school only for six years. As a result, Niger also has the lowest literacy rates in the world at 15.5 percent — far behind the global rate of 92 percent. 
• Niger has an education index of .20. The education index is a statistic from the U.N. which is calculated using the mean number of years of schooling and the expected number of years of schooling. Its education index means that Niger is ranked at the bottom of all 189 countries with available data.
• Children with disabilities are also at increased risk of school violence and bullying, preventing the safe enjoyment of their right to education, says the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), School violence and bullying: Global status report, 2016.

However, despite political conflicts and extreme poverty, several organisations are working to improve education in Niger. One such organisation is Remember Niger Coalition (RNC) – an American charity that has stepped in to help children with disabilities attend school.

In 2019, the RNC partnered with the Maradi Association for People with Disabilities and the Hosanna Institute to establish the School of Hope, a school specifically designed for children with disabilities. The three-classroom building was completed in November 2019 with one class ready for use in October when the school year began with 20 kindergarten students.

According to Julie Frye, director of marketing and communications at RNC, this is the first phase in establishing a primary through high school complex for all children, including students with learning differences and unique needs. When complete, the school will have classes from kindergarten all the way to high school for over 600 students.

The design of the School of Hope classrooms takes into consideration issues of accessibility and barrier-free spaces such as handrails, wide doorways, and access ramps. Construction included the installation of four accessible toilets and hand-washing stations, customised to meet the special needs of the disabled community.

“School infrastructure is pivotal to our mission to create quality educational opportunities in Niger. In order for quality learning to take place, students and teachers must have facilities that are safe and adapted to their needs,” Frye tells IPS. The RNC has invested a total of $50,000 so far, she reveals.

DRC: Education curbs violent crimes against the disabled

In DRC, especially in Bukavu and other eastern towns and villages, there remains significantly high levels of violence against women and girls, who are often beaten, raped and tortured. Those who are disabled cannot run away, making them more vulnerable.

The solution, Namadamu says, lies in education for the disabled and joint financing by the government and private sector funders.

“If we invest $1 million, we can build a large school, hostels, toilets, vocational skill training,  special learning materials for the blind and other technologies like computer, TV camera etc. Such a facility can provide total, inclusive education to a large community. But where is that money? We need external investment,” says Namadamu.

Sheikh Manssour Bin Mussallam, the president of ERF, says that though there is space for private investors in inclusive education, it needs to happen in a more collective and cohesive way. It should not be fragmented, but confederated.

“Regardless of whether its private sectors or philanthropists or academic bodies, we need to act through coordination. The main issue or tragedy is that where there is regional lack of initiatives, organisations or individuals, they do not communicate. When they do communicate, they do not cooperate. And when they do cooperate, its not very efficient,” Mussallam tells IPS in a special interview.

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The post Inclusive Education Still Evades People with Disabilities appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Chris Wellisz. Credit: Porter Gifford

By Chris Wellisz
WASHINGTON DC, Jan 29 2020 (IPS)

Growing up in New York City in the 1970s, Edward Glaeser saw a great metropolis in decline. Crime was soaring. Garbage piled up on sidewalks as striking sanitation workers walked off the job. The city teetered on the edge of bankruptcy.

By the mid-1980s, it was clear that New York would bounce back. But it could still be a scary place; there was a triple homicide across the street from his school on the Upper West Side of Manhattan. Glaeser was nevertheless captivated by New York’s bustling street life and spent hours roaming its neighborhoods.

“It was both wonderful and terrifying, and it was hard not to be obsessed by it,” Glaeser recalls in an interview at his office at Harvard University.

Today, that sense of wonder still permeates Glaeser’s work as an urban economist. He deploys the economist’s theoretical tool kit to explore questions inspired by his youth in New York.

Why do some cities fail while others flourish? What accounts for sky-high housing costs in San Francisco? How does the growth of cities differ in rich and poor countries?

“I have always thought of myself as fundamentally a curious child,” Glaeser, 52, says. Rather than “pushing well-established literature forward,” he seeks to comprehend “something that I really don’t understand when I start out.”

While still a graduate student at the University of Chicago, Glaeser made his mark as a theorist of the benefits of agglomeration—the idea that dense and diverse cities are hothouses of innovation, energy, and creativity that fuel economic growth.

In the years since, his work has ranged across a breathtaking variety of subjects, from rent control and real estate bubbles to property rights, civil disobedience, and carbon emissions.

“For a couple decades now, Ed has been the leading thinker about the economics of place,” says Lawrence Summers, a Harvard professor who served as director of the National Economic Council under US President Barack Obama. “And the economics of urban areas are increasingly being seen as central to broad economic concerns.”

Glaeser and Summers are collaborating on a study of the hardening divide between well-educated, affluent coastal regions of the United States and islands of economic stagnation in what they call the “eastern heartland,” the interior states east of the Mississippi River.

There, in cities like Flint, Michigan, the proportion of prime-age men who aren’t working has been rising—along with rates of opioid addiction, disability, and mortality.

How can policy help? Traditionally, economists have been skeptical of the value of place-based policies like enterprise zones that offer tax breaks to investors, saying it is better to help people, not places.

People, they assumed, would move to where the jobs were. But labor mobility has declined in recent decades, partly because of high housing costs, partly because demand for relatively unskilled factory work has diminished.

Breaking with economic orthodoxy, Glaeser and Summers say that the federal government should tailor pro-employment measures, such as reducing the payroll tax or increasing tax credits to low earners, to fit the needs of economically distressed areas such as West Virginia. They also make the case for boosting investment in education.

As a Chicago-trained economist, Glaeser is a strong believer in the magic of free markets and opposes measures that distort incentives. “I have always been against spatial redistribution, taking from rich areas and giving to poor areas,” he says. “That doesn’t mean that you want the same policies everywhere.”

Urban economics seemed like a natural pursuit for Glaeser. His German-born father, Ludwig, was an architect who taught him how the built environment shapes people’s lives. His mother, Elizabeth, was an asset manager who introduced him to economics. Glaeser recalls how she used the example of competing cobblers to explain marginal cost pricing.

“I remember thinking what an amazing and fascinating thing it is to think about the impact of competition,” he says. He was 10 years old.

In high school, Glaeser excelled at history and mathematics. As a Princeton University undergraduate, he considered majoring in political science before choosing economics, seeing it as a path to Wall Street.

But dreams of a career in finance ended with the stock market crash of 1987, just as he started job interviews. So he opted for graduate school, because “it didn’t seem like I was cutting off many options,” he says.

“Then I got to Chicago, and that was when I really fell in love with economics.”

Glaeser keeps a framed photograph of himself with Gary Becker, the Chicago economist and Nobel prize laureate. Becker taught him that the discipline’s conceptual tools could be used to explore topics that had once been the domain of fields like sociology or anthropology—topics like racial discrimination, fertility, and the family.

“It was that sense of the creative side of economics that could work on a virtually unlimited canvas and try to make sense of any problem that you thought was important—that was the part that was so exciting to me,” Glaeser says.

At the time, Chicago economists Robert Lucas and Paul Romer were developing the so-called endogenous growth theory, which focused on the role of innovation and the exchange of ideas in economic development.

As Glaeser recalls it, Lucas pointed to cities as places where knowledge spillovers occur—meaning people can benefit from other people’s ideas without paying for them. Think of a city like Detroit early last century, where Henry Ford used his experience as chief engineer at the Edison Illuminating Company to start his automobile business.

That concept inspired a groundbreaking 1992 paper, “Growth in Cities.” Glaeser and three co-authors set out to use cities as a laboratory in which to test the new growth theories. Using 30 years of data covering 170 US cities, they found that local competition and diversity, rather than specialization, are the prime motors of urban growth.

The paper instantly made Glaeser a star and earned him a job offer from Harvard.

Glaeser “showed that urban variety, not specialization in one particular thing, was a big driver of employment growth,” says Joseph Gyourko, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and a longtime collaborator. “It was Ed’s first really well-cited article, so it did start him on his path.”

Gyourko and Glaeser started working together in the early 2000s, when Glaeser took a year’s sabbatical at Penn. They wondered why some cities, such as Detroit, declined so slowly, and why so many people stayed instead of moving elsewhere. They hit upon a simple answer: housing is durable, and as cities slump, it becomes cheaper to live there.

That insight prompted a related question: Why is housing so much more expensive than the cost of construction in cities like New York and Boston? The answer: land-use restrictions limit density, curbing the supply of housing and driving up prices. It was basic economics, yet until then, urban economists hadn’t focused on the role of regulation.

Glaeser argues that excessive regulation is destructive of the very essence of urban life—density. Cities thrive on the creativity that occurs when people living cheek by jowl exchange ideas and know-how. Sunbelt cities like Houston have grown because an easy regulatory environment keeps housing inexpensive.

To economists like Glaeser, building and zoning regulations are a tax on development. Some level of tax makes economic sense, because construction imposes costs on residents in the form of noise, congestion, and pollution.

But overly stringent regulation, often pushed by residents who want to keep out newcomers and protect their property values, can make housing unaffordable for most people.

Glaeser is similarly skeptical of historic preservation rules, to the dismay of followers of Jane Jacobs, the legendary critic of urban-renewal projects who celebrated the lively street life of New York’s old ethnic neighborhoods.

Glaeser is a big Jacobs fan—he owns an autographed copy of her 1961 classic, The Death and Life of Great American Cities—but argues that her efforts to oppose development in Greenwich Village were at odds with her support for low-income housing.

“I believe that many of our oldest buildings are treasures,” he says. “But don’t simultaneously pretend that that’s a route toward affordability. Affordability is created by mass-produced cheap housing or mass-produced cheap commercial space. And you might not like it aesthetically, but that is the affordable route.”

In 2000, Glaeser published “Consumer City,” a paper he wrote with Jed Kolko and Albert Saiz. In it, he took the concept of agglomeration a step further, arguing that people are drawn not only to the opportunities that cities offer, but also to amenities such as theaters, museums, and restaurants.

“We know that cities can attract the disproportionately young and innovative,” says Richard Florida, a professor of urban studies at the University of Toronto. “Ed was identifying the factors driving that, this whole idea that cities are not only places of production, but places of consumption.”

Glaeser laments policies such as the mortgage interest deduction, which encourages people to buy homes rather than rent apartments; highway subsidies, which make it easier to drive to the suburbs; and a school system that disadvantages inner-city students.

Such policies, he argues, not only are antiurban but also contribute to climate change, because city dwellers, who live in smaller homes and use mass transit, consume less electricity and gasoline than their suburban counterparts.

Surprisingly, he and his wife, Nancy, who have three children, decided to move to the suburbs of Boston several years ago. To Glaeser, it was a perfectly rational decision: the suburbs offer more living space, better schools, and a reasonably fast commute.

Already well known in academia, Glaeser started to reach a broader audience with the publication in 2011 of his bestselling book, Triumph of the City, a lively study of urbanization from ancient Baghdad to modern Bangalore.

His eloquence and enthusiasm make him a sought-after speaker at academic forums and TED Talks. Invariably, he is impeccably attired in well-pressed suits and preaches the gospel of urbanization in crisp, rapid-fire sentences.

Despite his celebrity, he takes teaching seriously. Rebecca Diamond, who attended his advising sessions as a graduate student, said he was generous with his time. “He taught me perspective and not to get too stuck in the weeds,” says Diamond, who now teaches at Stanford University and stays in touch with Glaeser.

Developing-world cities are his latest passion. True to form, he sees them as relatively uncharted territory, neglected both by urban economists, who focus on advanced-economy cities, and development economists, who concentrate on rural areas. They are also growing fast, and their physical and institutional infrastructure are works in progress, so economists’ policy advice can have an impact.

“The ability of economists to make a difference by getting engaged is just very large,” he says. “So, I think it is the new frontier.”

It also takes him to interesting places. His latest research project, with Nava Ashraf and Alexia Delfino of the London School of Economics, took him to the markets of Lusaka, Zambia, to study barriers to female entrepreneurship.

They found women are more likely to go into business if the rule of law is strong enough to help overcome inherently unequal relations with men.

Like Jane Jacobs, Glaeser is big believer in observing what he sees around him. “You don’t really understand a city until you’ve actually walked in the streets,” Glaeser says.

“That’s what makes Ed a first rate applied theorist,” says Gyourko. “You’ve got to get your hands messy in the data. Sometimes data is just walking around.”

While researching Triumph of the City, Glaeser explored places like Mumbai’s Dharavi quarter, which was a “completely magical experience.” Among the world’s most densely populated places, Dharavi hums with entrepreneurial energy, with potters, tailors, and other craftsmen working side by side in cramped, ill-lit quarters.

At the same time, unpaved streets, polluted air, and open sewers are reminders of the downsides of density. But Glaeser doesn’t bemoan the poverty of such places; on the contrary, he says cities attract the poor precisely because they offer opportunity. For the developing world, urbanization is the best path to prosperity.

“For all of their problems, amazing things are happening in India and sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America,” Glaeser says. “And things obviously don’t always go the right direction, but cities have been working miracles of collaboration for thousands of years, and whenever I go to a developing-world city, it is obvious to me that the age of miracles is not over.”

Opinions expressed in articles and other materials are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect IMF policy.

The post Urbanization as a Path to Prosperity appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Credit: KUNDA DIXIT

By Kunda Dixit
ABU DHABI, Jan 29 2020 (IPS)

The increased frequency of climate-induced weather extremes and public opinion pressure are forcing even major fossil fuel exporting countries in West Asia to make a big push towards renewable energy.

In January alone, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) hosted the Gulf Intelligence UAE Energy Forum, the World Future Energy Summit, the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week and a Future Sustainability Summit. February onwards, Dubai will have the International Conference on Renewable and Sustainable Energy, International Conference on Green Energy and Environmental Technology, with a Green Week and a Congress on Biofuels and Bioenergy later this year.

The UAE is the world’s 7th largest exporter of crude oil, with 5.5% of market share, but is promoting itself as a low-carbon country. Masdar City, a model for sustainable urban living is coming up outside Abu Dhabi which is designed by Foster and Partners architects.

A 10MW solar farm outside the city provides solar power for the office buildings, which includes the regional headquarters of Siemens and IRENA (the International Renewable Energy Agency). Oil industry conclaves that used to focus on global price trends, prospecting and new oil fields now have plenary panels on solar and wind.

“Rising energy needs … climate change pressures and technological innovation mean that national oil companies must gravitate towards renewables for longer-term competitiveness and sustainability.”

Raoul Restucci, Managing Director of Petroleum Development Oman

“We are serious about energy security, and we have a strategy for an energy mix that includes renewables,” said Suhail bin Mohammed Faraj Faris Al Mazrouei, UAE Minister of Energy and Industry at the opening of the UAE Energy Forum earlier this month. That decarbonisation plan would mean the country by 2050 will be producing 38% of its energy from gas, 44% from renewables, 6% from nuclear and the use of clean coal will drop to 12%.

In the rest of the oil-rich Gulf region, petroleum-based energy will drop from the current 91% to 41%, and renewables will go up from 9% today to 59% .

Of the UAE’s 10 million population, 90% are expatriates and the country’s per capita carbon footprint is 23 tons per year. Although a low carbon trajectory would reduce total emissions, the UAE will remain a major exporter of fossil fuels into the future.

Even so, the writing was on the wall in Abu Dhabi throughout January – conference delegates felt there is no option but to move from oil to more a more efficient fossil fuel like gas, and promote utility scale solar and wind.

Even oil industry executives called for a green approach. Raoul Restucci, Managing Director of Petroleum Development Oman says: “Rising energy needs … climate change pressures and technological innovation mean that national oil companies must gravitate towards renewables for longer-term competitiveness and sustainability.”

This year, Oman is commissioning a 100MW solar farm. Saudi Arabia is turning into ‘Solar Arabia’ by integrating Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) with its existing thermal plants to generate nearly 2GW. It is adding 300MW solar photovoltaic and a 400MW wind project, and is thinking big: generate 200GW of solar power by 2030.

 

Credit: KUNDA DIXIT

 

The UAE itself is aiming to cut CO2 emissions by 70% with Dubai installing the largest single-site solar park in the world to produce 1,000MW, which will be upgraded to 5,000MW in the next ten years. Another CSP plant will generate electricity 700MW even after dark with molten salt storage. Elsewhere, solar plants balance the fluctuation in generation by pumping water to hydropower dams, releasing the water through turbines at night.

“However much we shift to renewables from transportation or electricity, we will still have to rely on oil and gas because we have to balance the baseload at night,” explains Jan Zschommler of the DNV GL, the Norway-based sustainability consultant group.

Projections show that although oil will supply 17% of the energy around the world in 2050, petroleum gas will be the primary energy source from the mid-2020s and in the next 20 years there will be a shift to non-fossil biogas.

The cost of solar photovoltaic panels has dropped by more than 90% in the past ten years, and the price of lithium ion batteries have dropped by 80% and onshore wind turbines by 75% in the same period. By 2025, it will be cheaper to build and run electric cars than a petrol vehicle.

However, even if half of all the cars in the world are electric, the demand of oil and gas will grow into the near future. Says Nobuo Tanaka of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation: “Peak oil will not happen before 2040 because even if light vehicles go electric there will be increased demand from aviation, ships and trucks as well as the petrochemical industry. That may be good news for the Middle East, but it’s bad news for the planet.”

This story was originally published by The Nepali Times

The post Oil-rich Gulf Turns to Renewable Energy appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

However, it will be exporting fossil fuels to meet growing Asian demand for the foreseeable future

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The Government of Kenya and the UN Kenya team with their hosts on the roof of the LinkedIn HQ in San Francisco on 21 Jan 2019. Credit: UN

By Dr. Temina Madon and Radhika Shah
NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan 29 2020 (IPS)

One year ago, the UN began implementing reforms meant to make it more effective in delivering on sustainable development. Now, with the start of 2020, the global body has declared this as the “decade of action” to turn the ambitious Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into a living reality for all humanity. But what does this look like, on the ground?

In countries like Kenya, there is widespread belief that the traditional approaches to economic growth are not enough to achieve the SDGs. Fortunately there are signs that the UN is embracing the disruptive innovation that is needed, across the development landscape, to transform the lives of people around the world. At the African Diaspora Investment Symposium held this month in Silicon Valley, USA we saw the UN, government, and private sector leaders engaged in insightful dialogue on how businesses can partner with the public sector to contribute to Africa’s development.

A team led by ICT Minister Joe Mucheru from the Government of Kenya and Siddharth Chatterjee, the UN Resident Coordinator in Kenya, spoke at the symposium. The team also met with several Silicon Valley companies and technology startups, and participated in round tables with local thought leaders at academic institutions like Stanford University and UC Berkeley.

Our interaction with government representatives and the UN team in Kenya has demonstrated an encouraging shift, especially in mobilising public-private partnerships that can transform the economy, rather than simply facilitating transactions.

In Kenya there is a noticeable, deliberate push for public-private partnerships around the SDGs as well as national priorities like the “Big Four” Development Agenda. Working hand-in-glove with the Government, the UN Country Team is branding and presenting Kenya’s national goals as an important and transparent opportunity for the business sector. They are a way to direct private investment toward activities that offer both corporate returns and sustainable development wins.

The trend towards leveraging private sector resources for Kenya’s national priorities, including catalyzing unique win-win partnerships with companies from across the world, is a welcome trajectory. In an era of declining public sector contributions to the global body, UN experts have been pushing for innovation to bridge the gap in investments needed to achieve the SDGs. This requires a mind-set shift: a focus on enabling companies to incorporate the development goals into their core business practices and strategies. And the UN’s leadership is critical in helping to ensure that corporate interests are focused where they will reduce inequality and generate positive social returns.

A demonstration of this new direction is the recent collaboration agreement between the Government of Kenya, the Center for Effective Global Action (CEGA) at the University of California, Berkeley, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the United Nations. This initiative will build technology-intensive partnerships that bring new financing, data, and innovations into Kenya’s Big Four Agenda. The collaboration will be implemented through Kenya’s SDG Accelerator Lab — a Government-UN platform for developing, testing, and scaling novel approaches to development.

We are excited about the potential of this initiative to deliver for the citizens of Kenya. For instance, the majority of maternal and newborn deaths are preventable with relatively simple and inexpensive tools, but too often the right life-saving interventions are unavailable where and when they are most needed. Part of the solution may lie in new technologies, like data analytics systems that integrate routine health administrative data with satellite imagery and machine learning.

These systems can, for example, help community health workers to prioritize and triage care and resources to those most at risk. Through partnerships with the companies that build these technologies, Kenya can begin to realize the benefits of the fourth industrial revolution, bringing critical information and insights where they are urgently needed.

Credit must be given to the Kenya government for being at the forefront of technology adoption. Its collaboration with UN in Kenya, a partnership characterized by deep trust and calculated risk-taking, is providing a template for other developing countries seeking to tap technology for sustainable development.

Kenya already stands out as a global frontrunner in the sphere of technological innovation, through such products as the MPesa mobile money transfer service, which has transformed lives — especially for those Kenyans who have for years been kept out of conventional banking. Kenya is also home to profound social innovations, including the use of randomized controlled trials to understand the effectiveness of development programs and products (an innovation merited with the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics).

Of course innovation is not a silver bullet, and achieving the SDGs will require careful thinking about how new technologies is financed, delivered, and regulated — especially if we are to advance the welfare of citizens who feel they are still stuck in neutral. However, if used in a thoughtful manner, technology holds incredible potential to transform governments, development partners, and businesses. Through platforms like the Kenya SDG Accelerator Lab, there are opportunities to harness its full and transformative potential, in ways that leave no one behind.

It is encouraging that the UN and Government are together stewarding the involvement of technology providers, and the broader private sector, in Kenya’s development agenda.

We concur with the observation of UN Deputy Secretary General Amina Mohammed that there is no time for an incremental approach, and success will rest “first and foremost on a shift in UN’s organizational culture and mind-sets at all levels”.

We see the need for a similar mind-set shift in Silicon Valley. By 2050, one in four people will live on the African continent. In some sense, the future lies in Africa; and the tech sector’s investment must begin to align with this reality.

Temina Madon @tmadon is an Advisor to the Kenya UN SDG Innovation Lab and was founding Executive Director of CEGA at UC Berkeley. She is also a member of South Park Commons, a technology community in Silicon Valley.

Radhika Shah @radhikashahsv is an Advisor to the Kenya UN SDG Innovation Lab and is Co-President, Stanford Angels and Entrepreneurs. She is a board member of CEGA at UC Berkeley.

The post Kenya Leapfrogging on 4 SDGS- Building Bridges Between Silicon Savannah and Silicon Valley appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Data by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), shows that only 35 percent of students studying STEM in higher education globally are women. At primary and lower secondary levels, less than half of schools in sub-Saharan Africa have no electricity, computers or even access to the internet. Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

By Joyce Chimbi
DJIBOUTI CITY, Jan 28 2020 (IPS)

Dr. Anne-Maria Brennan loved science as a young girl. But instead of encouraging her, those around her made attempts to steer her in the “right direction”. “The right direction was in nursing, teaching and secretarial courses. I was told that girls do not study physics,” she tells IPS.

“These voices were so loud that I seriously considered becoming a music teacher. But then someone sensibly told me that I could become a scientist and an amateur musician, but there was nothing like an amateur scientist who was also a professional musician,” she says.

That was in the seventies, today Brennan is the vice-president of Science Engagement at the Foundation for Science, Technology and Civilisation in the United Kingdom.

Brennan previously served as an associate professor in Bioscience and Forensic Biology, at the School of Applied Science, London South Bank University.

“It turns out that girls could in fact study physics, or mathematics, science, technology and engineering,” she quips.

It has been five decades since Brennan swam against the tide, pursuing a career in science. But data by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), shows that globally only 35 percent of students studying Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics – or STEM – in higher education are women. Further confirming that girls are still being steered towards domestic and caring career paths.

“Gender balance in enrolment as well as inclusivity in both participation and achievements in STEM education remains a global south challenge,” Professor Kalu Mosto Onuoha, President of the Nigerian Academy of Science, tells IPS.

“Education systems will never be balanced and inclusive when half of the population is not participating at per with their counterparts in STEM education,” he adds.

Similar sentiments were shared by other delegates participating in the 3rd International Summit on Balanced and Inclusive Education currently being held in Djibouti City, Djibouti. Organised by the Education Relief Foundation (ERF), over 200 delegates and government representatives from over 35 countries are currently in the Horn of Africa nation where state leaders are expected to sign a Universal Declaration on universal inclusive education.

• Unfortunately, low female representation in STEM education is a narrative that knows no boundaries. According to UNESCO, Sweden has the highest share of women graduates from STEM programmes among Nordic countries, but STEM attainment among female students in Sweden stands at 16 percent, compared to male students at 47 percent.

Brennan affirms that the numbers are similarly low in the United Kingdom but notes some improvements in the fields of general practice and dentistry, where women have taken a lead.

She says there are few women in surgery and even fewer in engineering because men in these fields are considered unfriendly and the sectors too involved and dirty.

“These wide gender gaps in developing countries are purely out of choice. Students in these countries are making the choice to pursue other interests. In developing countries the choice is made for our students by a patriarchal culture and through socialisation,” says Onuoha.

He says that these inequalities are first rooted in the exclusion and marginalisation of girls in education enrolment.

“Girls who eventually made it to school were encouraged to undertake feminine subjects like teaching. They were socialised to believe that they could only be good mothers if they took on lighter subjects,” Onuoha expounds.

• But the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report 2020 indicates that these inequalities are not limited to the lagging behind of girls at the enrolment level.
• In countries such as the Southern Africa nation of Namibia where girls outpace boys in school enrolment at all levels, the gap widens in STEM education. Here, about eight percent of female students have attained STEM education, compared to 21 percent of male students.
• Nonetheless, the report shines a spotlight on countries with impressive levels of STEM education uptake among their female students.
• In Mauritania, for instance, attainment in STEM is at 29 percent among female students, and 31 percent among male students. In the South Asian nation of Myanmar, female students outpace male students in attainment of STEM education.
• A few other countries such as the Arab country of Oman are slowly and surely closing the gender gap in STEM uptake, with 41 percent of female students and 55 percent of male students.

“In developing countries there are many concerted efforts to address the first part of  the problem, even though painfully slowly, we are slowly closing gender gaps in education enrolment, retention and in some cases, achievements,” Professor Mahouton Norbert Hounkonnou, from the Benin National Academy of Science, Arts and Letters, tells IPS.

Hounkonnou is a full professor of mathematics and physics, and called for the demystification of sciences. “STEM education is taught as if only a few people are meant to understand but science and math is for all of us. Everybody does math on a daily basis without even knowing it.”

Hounkonnou says that balanced and inclusive education systems call for an overhaul in what is taught in STEMs, who teaches it and how it is taught. “Learners love to be engaged. Our classrooms must become more interactive. We also need a gender component, currently lacking, in many of our educational interventions,” he adds.

He called for investment in infrastructure and learning materials to improve the environment in which STEM education is provided.

U.N. research shows that countries in the sub-Sahara Africa face the biggest challenges. At the primary and lower secondary levels, less than half of schools have access to electricity, computers and internet.

“This forum provides an opportunity for us to define the shape a balanced and inclusive STEM education system should take, and make concerted efforts to build that system. It will take financial and technical resources, including the training of teachers to better interact with female learners,” says Hounkonnou.

Related Articles

• **UPDATE** African Nations Caught in Conflict Re-commit to Inclusive Education
• Balanced and Gender-Inclusive Education is a Smart Investment

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By PRESS RELEASE
Jan 28 2020 (IPS-Partners)

The number of people displaced in Burkina Faso increased tenfold last year to over 560,000. The figure is predicted to skyrocket to 900,000 people by April as horrific violence continues to force families from their homes.

“Burkina Faso needs more than bullets and bombs. Military engagement alone is failing to protect vulnerable communities. Donors supporting military efforts to quell the extreme violence have not yet responded to the enormous humanitarian needs with equal emphasis,” warned NRC’s Secretary General Jan Egeland, who is visiting the country this week.

France and states from Africa’s Sahel region have increased the predominantly security-oriented response to the indiscriminate violence of many armed militants in northern and eastern Burkina Faso. But some of the large-scale military operations against armed groups have had dire humanitarian consequences, forcing communities to flee their homes in thousands.

The country is now on the brink of a hunger crisis. A staggering one in ten people in Burkina Faso will need food assistance by June. The violence is also storing up problems for future generations, as some armed groups deliberately target schools and teachers, leaving over 330,000 children without access to education.

“In the northern town of Barsalogho, I heard horrific stories from some of the 70,000 people who recently fled to camps where there is an acute need of water, sanitation, food and education. Insecurity and a lack of funding is severely hampering our work. Donor governments have not understood that this is the world’s fastest-growing displacement crisis. We still see a small aid response in a huge human catastrophe,” Egeland said.

Last year, less than half of the money required to meet humanitarian needs was received.

“We need to urgently scale up our presence to provide the assistance and protection these families deserve. Many told me they can’t sleep at night for fear of new attacks. Most are single mother led households, as their husbands and fathers are often dead or have fled from the targeted killings of men,” said Egeland.

The international community, alongside regional actors supporting the military response, must also acknowledge the root causes of the conflict that must be addressed, and for dialogue to be re-established between communities and authorities.

“I don’t understand what has happened, we used to talk to each other,” said Mariam, a displaced mother in Barsalogho. “If there were tensions between communities, leaders would have discussed according to our tradition. Now no one talks anymore, there are walls between us.”

NOTE TO EDITORS:

Photos and B-roll including video interviews with affected people can be downloaded for free use.

MEDIA CONTACTS:

• Tom Peyre-Costa, Regional Media Adviser in Central and West Africa.
Email: tom.peyrecosta@nrc.no Skype: tom.peyre-costa
Whatsapp: +33658518391 Phone: +22665524421
• NRC media hotline phone +47 90 56 23 29, email media@nrc.no

FACTS AND FIGURES:

• Burkina Faso was the fastest growing displacement crisis of all humanitarian crises last year, in terms of the percentage increase in displacement. The number of displaced increased with more than 1,000% from about 50,000 at the beginning of the year to 560,000 in December 2019.
• The number of deaths in Burkina Faso due to attacks jumped from about 80 in 2016 to over 1,800 last year.
• 95 health centres were closed and 135 functioning at minimum capacity as of the end of 2019, jeopardizing the access of nearly 1.2 million people to basic healthcare.
• 330,000 children are affected by the closure of 2,087 schools due to the insecurity and need urgent education assistance.
• Not even half (48%) of the funds needed in 2019 for the humanitarian response were allocated. Required: US$187 million. Funded: US$89 million. The humanitarian community is requesting US$295 million for 2020.

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By Vladimir Popov and Jomo Kwame Sundaram
BERLIN and KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 28 2020 (IPS)

One mercantilist view is that exchange rate undervaluation – e.g., via accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in China’s case – is ‘industrial policy’ to promote export-led growth, benefiting producers of exports while discouraging imports.

Taxes and subsidies are tools of selective industrial policy for which an efficient and clean bureaucracy is needed to successfully use them for growth-promotion.

Vladimir Popov

By discouraging imports and promoting exports, exchange rate undervaluation enhances cost competitiveness, e.g., by keeping wage costs down. Currency undervaluation is equivalent to import duties on all tradables and export subsidies.

But exchange rate undervaluation automatically boosts all production and export of ‘tradables’ without being selective. It is a blunt, non-selective instrument that can even work in highly corrupt environments or where the requisite competence is not available. Such promotion of export production avoids potentially corruptible, discretionary selection of beneficiaries.

Forex reserves accumulation as industrial policy?
Polterovich and Popov’s cross-country regressions for 1960-1999 suggest that foreign exchange (forex) reserves accumulation contributes to developing countries’ economic growth by increasing both capital productivity and the investment/GDP ratio.

For them, forex reserves accumulation causes expansionary real exchange rate (RER) undervaluation in the short run. RER undervaluation enables taking greater advantage of export externalities, boosting export-led growth. Accumulating forex reserves attracts foreign direct investment by raising government credibility and lowering dollar costs. Undervaluation may even improve wealth and social welfare.

Hence, they argue that forex reserves accumulation has been growth promoting by enabling exchange rate underpricing. In fact, however, there has been considerable variation in both exchange rate underpricing and forex reserves accumulation over the last four decades.

Jomo Kwame Sundaram

If a country manages to become internationally competitive – whether via higher productivity, lower wages, or a weak exchange rate – it will export more than it imports, developing a trade surplus. If this surplus is kept as forex reserves, the exchange rate depreciates and the trade surplus may grow.

The decade-long strong yen (endaka) period after the 1985 Plaza Accord may thus have helped end the post-war Japanese economic miracle. Arguably, the endaka contributed to its financial ‘big bang’ and subsequent stagnation in the 1990s and its lacklustre growth thereafter.

By contrast, Chancellor Helmut Kohl avoided a similar fate for the Deutschemark by ‘hiding’ behind the common European monetary zone currency (euro) and lowering the national wage rate by accelerating ‘reunification’ of West with East Germany.

Capital flowing uphill
Countries achieving high growth have mostly been net creditors, not net borrowers, i.e., they have saved more than they have invested. Even controlling for level of development, the relationship between the current account surplus and growth remains positive and significant.

This high correlation between domestic savings and investment, even in economies with relatively open capital accounts, is contrary to the popular presumption that capital would flow to countries with better investment climates and rates of return to investment.

High domestic savings rates have often, but not always supported high investment rates, which usually, if not always, leads to faster growth.

Krugman noted that although there were at least three large waves of capital flows to developing countries around the turn of the century, but none had led to growth miracles: “… the point is that there’s no striking evidence that capital flows have been a major source of economic success.”

Hence, many developing countries’ apparent policy preference to rely on external financing is ironic as economists puzzle over why ‘capital is flowing uphill’, from developing to developed countries.

As protectionist policies have been increasingly constrained by developed countries promoted free trade mantra, exchange rate undervaluation is one of the few available tools for promoting catch-up development.

The main analytical argument against exchange rate undervaluation is “if all developing countries were to pursue this policy, there would be a ‘beggar thy neighbour’ ‘race to the bottom’”.

Undervaluation without reserves accumulation?
Many in developing countries consider the policy of forex reserves accumulation to be wrongheaded. Forex reserves are a share of national savings not invested in the national economy as they are exported out of the country for low returns, usually deployed to finance consumption and investment elsewhere.

Forex reserves generally yield low returns if invested in safe instruments, such as US Treasury bills and similar debt obligations of other Western governments. Investing these savings inside the country would yield higher returns.

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By Amina Mohamed
UNITED NATIONS, Jan 28 2020 (IPS)

Increasingly, the ability of multilateralism to address contemporary global issues such as climate change and international trade is being questioned. In the case of international trade, WTO Members have thus far not been able to conclude the Doha Round, which was launched in November 2001. The Round was supposed to have been concluded on 1 January 2005, but it has been beset by persistent differences among the WTO Members. Whereas most developing countries believe that the Round is still active and have called for the fulfilment of all Doha mandates, several developed countries are of the view that the Round has run its full course and overtaken by developments in the global economy. They note that three out of the ten top economies in the world are developing countries – Brazil, China and India – and that several developing economies are also competitive in certain sectors of the global economy and that by granting significant flexibilities in the negotiations to these competitive developing economies, the Round’s mandates are no longer valid and that differentiation among developing countries should be part of the broader on-going discussion on WTO reform.

The stalemate in the Doha negotiations has prompted countries to look at alternative ways to liberalize trade and investment for the benefit of their businesses and consumers, including negotiating plurilateral agreements at the WTO among a subset of WTO Members and negotiating bilateral and regional trade agreements. In the last five years, concluded bilateral and regional trade agreements include the United States-Mexico and Canada Free Trade Agreement, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between the European Union and Canada, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership between eleven Pacific-rim countries, including Australia, Canada and Japan, the Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic RelationsPlus between Australia, New Zealand and the fourteen Pacific Island Countries and European Union and MERCOSUR Free Trade Agreement. The scope of these agreements goes beyond the current WTO Agreement and addresses issues of importance to businesses such as electronic commerce, competition policy and investment as well as labour rights and the protection of the environment.

African countries have also not been idle and have recently concluded the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), which is expected to create a market of 1.2 billion people with a gross domestic product of USD2.5 trillion. The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa estimates that trade among African countries, which is currently around 15 per cent, can easily be doubled if the current overall average tariffs of 6.1 per cent are eliminated. The figure is projected to be even higher if the removal of tariffs is accompanied by the elimination of non-tariff barriers on intra-African trade. With Africa’s population expected to exceed 2 billion by 2050, it is envisaged that it would be a magnet for foreign direct investment by leading multinational companies. The World Economic Forum estimates that the AfCFTA will generate USD4 trillion for investments and commercial transactions of goods and services on the continent.

Dr Amina Mohamed. Photo: Ministry Files

Notwithstanding the immense opportunities the AfCFTA will bring to the African continent, African countries should not turn their backs on the rules-based multilateral trading system, which has contributed significantly to the expansion of the global economy and in the process lifted several millions of people out of absolute poverty. Between 1948 and 2019, world trade grew from USD58.5 billion to almost USD20 trillion and it is estimated that more than 700 million people have been lifted out of absolute poverty with much of that happening in China and India. African countries should show determination and work closely with the leading WTOMembers, including the United States, the European Union, China, Brazil and India to strengthen the organization for the benefit of all countries, particularly African and least developed countries which have been operating at theperiphery of the multilateral trading system.

There is agreement among all WTO Members that the WTO Agreement needs updating considering that the current Agreement entered into force in January 1995. So much has happened in the intervening period and WTO rules need to reflect contemporary trends in the global economy if it is to remain relevant. The task of reforming the WTO should not be left to a few countries. All countries have a stake in a well-functioning multilateral trading system and collective engagement will ensure that all spectrums of views are considered in the design and implementation of new and effective multilateral trade rules. The benefits from the AfCFTA would be far greater if alongside regional liberalization, there is also multilateral liberalization, especially considering that Africa’s largest trading partners are the European Union, China and the United States. The two approaches to liberalization are not mutually exclusive and can complement each other as various studies have shown. African countries need not make a choice between the two approaches and should pursue both doggedly to achieve robust economic growth and sustainable development.

The world needs a reinforced rules-based multilateral trading system more than ever to confront the challenges of the 21stcentury. Bilateral and regional trade agreements cannot be a perfect substitute for the rules-based multilateral trading system, as issues such as trade distorting domestic support to the agriculture sector can only be effectively addressed at the multilateral level. These agreements, including the AfCFTA also tend to rely heavily on the WTO framework in many areas, including health and food safety and trade remedies. All WTO Members should work together to preserve and strengthen this public good. Compromises will have to be made and the overarching reason why countries join the WTO in the first place should not be lost on them. Every country that is a WTO Member acknowledges the role trade can play in their national economies in creating jobs, attracting foreign direct investment and lifting standards of living. Protectionism imposes significant costs and countries should avoid going down that path. African countries have a role to play in breaking the impasse at the WTO and they should work intensively with other WTO Members to reform and strengthen the institution and the rules-based multilateral trading system, while they commence implementing the AfCFTA to boost trade and investment on the continent.

The writer is a Cabinet Secretary, Government of Kenya. She served until recently as Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Minister in charge also of international trade. She has occupied several top positions at the World Trade Organization, including as Chairperson of the General Council and the Nairobi Ministerial Conference in 2015.

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People’s Friendship University of Russia

By Somar Wijayadasa
NEW YORK, Jan 28 2020 (IPS)

Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia – popularly known as RUDN (acronym from its Russian name Rossiysky Universitet Druzhby Narodov) – is a renowned, world-class educational and research institution in Moscow.

It celebrates its 60th Anniversary from 5-7 February culminating in a grand concert at the Kremlin Palace of Congress presided by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

In keeping with Russia’s socialist tradition of helping developing countries, Premier Nikita Khrushchev opened this University in 1960 – just less than half a century after the 1917 Russian revolution, and less than two decades after the World War II that ravaged the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) with a loss of over 27 million of its people.

Events of historical significance

By 1960, Russia was a thriving economy with marvels of industrialization, advances in science, technology and medicine, escapades into outer space, and basking in the glory of a Super Power.

Simultaneously, a mass decolonization was taking place liberating hundreds of countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America – that desperately required qualified cadres to develop their countries. Russia stepped up to assist them – giving birth to the Peoples’ Friendship University.

Exponential growth

As a frequent visitor to the RUDN University since 1960’s, I have had the rare privilege of witnessing its radical transformation – the exponential growth of buildings, faculties, programs and Institutes, and its number of students.

In 1960, RUDN had 539 students from 59 countries in six faculties in different locations in Moscow. By 1964, it began to build a new campus to accommodate all faculties and students in one location – that has now grown into a mega-university.

When I defended my thesis in 1967, the dissertation committee consisted of seven eminent international jurists, chaired by Feodor Kozhevnikov, a former judge of the International Court of Justice. Even then – a high standard indeed.

The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) was the first to recognize the high level of Degrees conferred by the Friendship University. With its well-recognized global rankings, Friendship University graduates with a Master’s Degree in any discipline could gain direct admission into PhD programs in Western Universities.

For example, I was admitted to the Hague Academy of International Law, and to PhD programs at the Vienna University, and the School of Law at the New York University purely on the grades of my Master’s Degree program but my workload and travel schedules at the UN disrupted my doctoral studies.

A mega-university

Today, the training of specialists at the RUDN University is carried out according to 472 programs of various levels of education, including 74 programs in foreign languages (English and Spanish) at the various faculties, institutes and academies of the University.

Among the phenomenal changes from my days in the 1960’s is that today you can follow many courses in the English medium. Regardless, all foreign students, after a year in Russia, speak fluent Russian.

RUDN has the best Russian language school in the world to teach Russian to foreigners. To date, its professors continue to teach Russian language to almost all foreign astronauts at the Cosmonaut Training Center named after Yuri Gagarin.

Another distinct improvement is the change in 1989 from a single all-inclusive 5-year Master’s Degree Program into a multi-tiered system of higher education.

Today, RUDN offers a variety of Bachelors, Masters, and Ph.D degrees in 76 disciplines. It has more than 30 Master’s programs in English and Spanish languages, and has over 113 joint Master’s and double diploma programs with famous universities of the world.

RUDN University has about 480 cooperation agreements with universities in more than 90 countries.

Somar Wijayadasa in Moscow, in 2014, with Prof Aslan Abashidze, Dean of the Law Faculty of the People’s Friendship University of Russia

Rector of RUDN University

At the helm of this astounding university is its dynamic Rector, Prof. Vladimir Mikhailovich Filippov, Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, and an Academician of the Russian Academy of Education. It is a great honor to have Dr. Fillippov as the Rector as he is an alumni (1973) of the Friendship University – for the last 15 years.

He was the Minister of Education of the Russian Republic (1998–2004), and has won many academic awards. Active in educational matters in Russia and abroad, he Chairs several educational Committees of UNESCO in Paris.

Moscow Campus: A city within the City of Moscow

The RUDN campus is located in the South-West of Moscow – about 20 minutes from the Kremlin and Red Square. It occupies 50 hectares (125 acres) and consists of 27 academic and hostel buildings, sport facilities and stadiums, a clinic and a diagnostic center, hundreds of scientific laboratories, a library, an International Club, a shopping center and 32 multinational cafés – all resembling a cosmopolitan city within the city of Moscow.

According to RUDN, the current “enrollment of students at the Moscow campus and at its Sochi Institute are about 33.5 thousand internal and external students, post-graduate students, residents and interns from 157 countries of the world”.

On average, about 9000 students live in the Moscow campus. The approximate distribution of students by country and region are: Asia – 2324; Latin America – 565; Africa – 1289; Middle East – 861; CIS and Baltic countries – 3510; and Western Europe – 349 students.

Referring to the vast multicultural composition of its student body, Rector Filippov says “our students not only obtain a university degree to fulfill their professional ambitions, but also gain invaluable experience in dealing with different cultures, and broaden their social and cultural horizons”.

Today, the University employs 2,800 highly qualified faculty members, including more than 600 doctors of sciences and 1,400 candidates of science, and about 150 foreign teachers. One noteworthy tradition that continues to date is the assiduous dedication of its professors who strive to ensure that all students excel in their studies, and graduate as well qualified professionals.

Let Knowledge Unite Us

In keeping with its motto “scientia unescamus”, the University unites people of different nationalities by means of knowledge. In that spirit, every year, the University admits nearly 2000 students from over 150 countries. Currently, over 150,000 of its graduates, including over 6000 doctors of science (PhD’s) work in 180 countries around the world.

Among its prominent graduates are: Mahmoud Abbas, Chairman of the PLO; Michel Djotodia, President of Central African Republic; Daniel Ortega, President of Nicaragua: Hifikepunye Pohamba, Former President of Namibia; Bharrat Jagdeo, former President of Guyana; Porfirio Lobo Sosa, former President of Honduras; Yousuf Saleh Abbas, former Prime Minister of Chad; Karim Masimov, former Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan, to name a few.

Its influential alumni include hundreds of ministers, judges, ambassadors, academicians, senior United Nations officials, and thousands of doctors and engineers and other professionals in hundreds of countries from Angola to Zimbabwe.

University graduates return to their countries – that have suffered for centuries under foreign rule and exploitation – to contribute not only for the scientific advancement of their countries but also to embark on their arduous struggle to win economic independence, develop their national economies, raise their cultural levels and identities, and achieve social progress.

That exemplifies Abraham Lincoln’s words “The philosophy of the school room in one generation will be the philosophy of government in the next”.

A mini United Nations in Moscow

Having worked for 25 years in several organizations of the United Nations system – IAEA, FAO, UNESCO, WHO/UNAIDS – and most of my career representing these organizations at the UN Headquarters in New York, I can unhesitatingly vouch that the atmosphere in the Friendship University campus bears a resemblance to the United Nations in New York.

In 2014, my wife and I casually visited the University (as we always do when we are in Moscow) not realizing that the graduation ceremonies were in progress. The massive lobby of the main building was full of beaming graduating foreign students, their families, and Ambassadors of various countries.

That multi-national gathering – some dressed in their national costumes – and the jubilant atmosphere truly resembled a mini United Nations. As we were introduced to the gathering, many thronged around us asking questions about future employment prospects in UN Agencies.

The university has a cooperative and friendly attitude – one of respect and mutual assistance. Here everyone can make a «world tour» without leaving the campus. Traditions and customs, cuisines and garments, dancing and music – the whole world is in one Moscow street.

A beacon of hope for the world

Since 1960, RUDN has offered thousands of fully paid graduate scholarships in medicine, engineering, jurisprudence, and other sciences to provide vitally needed qualified cadres to develop those newly liberated nations. That is a magnanimous contribution – unprecedented in history.

As I pointed out earlier, over 150,000 RUDN graduates work all over the world, and in various organizations of the United Nations system. Each one of them – in their professions – prove the high standard of education they received, thereby, bringing enormous credit to Russia’s People’s Friendship University.

The golden axiom “education is the ultimate gift one can give a child” may have inspired Nelson Mandela to say “Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world”.

*Somar Wijayadasa, a Law graduate of the Friendship University was a Faculty Member of the University of Sri Lanka (1967-1972); worked for IAEA and FAO (1973-1985): delegate of UNESCO to the UN General Assembly (1985-1995); and was the Representative of UNAIDS at the United Nations from 1995-2000.

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Djibouti’s Minister of Higher Eduction and Scientific Research Nabil Mohamed Ahmed (right) speaks at the International Summit on Balanced and Integrated Education, which his country is hosting. Credit: Stella Paul/IPS

By Stella Paul
DJIBOUTI CITY, Jan 27 2020 (IPS)

Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh knows that his country is in need of an education system that is, “innovative, based on universal principles and values and adaptive of the local realities”.

With a population of  less than a million, Djibouti is one of the smallest countries in Africa. However, the number of challenges blocking its way to implementing inclusive education are massive: flood, droughts, landslides and political conflicts.

“In the past two months, we have been hit by a huge flood. Before that, we had repeated droughts. And now we have an invasion of crickets in Djibouti. So, beside the social problems, we have been also facing climatic challenges,”  Djibouti’s Minister of Higher Eduction and Scientific Research Nabil Mohamed Ahmed told IPS.

And each of these disasters takes toll on the education system.

Perhaps it is one of the reasons why his country is hosting the third edition of the International Summit on Balanced and Integrated Education, which started Monday, Jan. 27, in the country’s capital Djibouti City. Inaugurating the summit, President Guelleh telling said: “This summit is a step closer to the future we want.”

Djibouti has been making steady progress with regards to its education system, Ahmed said.

It’s been confirmed by the United Nation’s Children’s Fund (UNICEF), which found that the number of students accessing high school education increased from less than 10 percent in 2011 to over 80 percent currently.

There has also been a new focus on providing an education that can boost the employability of this Horn of Africa nation’s youth.

“When they can’t find jobs, they are pushed to terrorism,” Ahmed pointed out.

• Djibouti is on high security alert, especially since Al-Shabaab — the Somali-based terror organisation — called for attacks on the country.  Though no major attack has taken place since 2014, security concerns still remain very high across the nation, especially the regions bordering Eritrea and Somalia.

Most of Djibouti’s conflict-ridden neighbours in the region — Eritrea, Sudan and South Sudan — are not participating in summit.

But Hassan Ali Khayre, the Prime Minister of Somalia — arguably one of the most conflict-ridden nations in Africa today — said that the country has been making a conscious effort to make universal education available to all Somalis, especially girls and women.

According to UNICEF, fewer than 50 percent of Somali girls attend primary school. Low availability of sanitation facilities such as separate toilets for girls, a lack of female teachers, safety concerns and social norms that favour boys’ education are cited as factors inhibiting parents from enrolling their daughters in school.

However, at the summit, Somalia’s government claimed to have taken several measures to improve girls’ education.

“In 2017, we developed a national education policy to provide free universal education from Kindergarten 1. We have also ratified the convention on child rights, so that no child is left out,” Somalia’s Minister of Education Mahdi Mohamed Gulaid said.

Oludoun Mary Omolara, the assistant Director at the Nigerian federal ministry of education, attended the International Summit on Balanced and Integrated Education in Djibouti. Credit: Stella Paul/IPS

Innovative models

Oludoun Mary Omolara is an assistant Director at the federal ministry of education in Nigeria. The West African nation has been hardest hit by the terrorism unleashed by Islamic extremist group Boko Haram, which is vehemently opposed to school education.

The country’s northern provinces have faced several violent attacks, including the kidnapping of 276 girls from their boarding school in 2014 — who are now known as the Chibok girls.

The region is reported to have the world’s highest rate of schoolgirl dropouts and the country itself has over 13 million out-of-school children — the largest in the world.

Though Nigeria has a universal education system, Omolara said that the national policy in border areas could be more inclusive, making it capable of addressing additional, crucial, life skills needed by people in conflict and border regions.

“The borders are porous (in northern Nigeria) there is constant cross-border migration  and frequent terror attacks. In such situations, we need to provide an education that can enable both teachers and students the knowledge to tackle these issues. For example, the locals need to know safety skills, which should be infused into the education policy so that teachers know how to safeguard their students in the face of an attack,” Omolara told IPS.

This week UNICEF issued an emergency alert stating that nearly 5 million children in central Sahel, particularly Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, will need humanitarian assistance this year. Violence in the region has surged, including “attacks against children and civilians, abductions and recruitment of children into armed groups”.

“When we look at the situation in the Central Sahel, we cannot help but be struck by the scale of violence children are facing. They are being killed, mutilated and sexually abused, and hundreds of thousands of them have had traumatic experiences,” Marie-Pierre Poirier, UNICEF Regional Director for West and Central Africa, said in a statement.

Nigeria, according to Omolara, has drafted a document to introduce this training in all the schools. So far, 400 people have been trained, and they in turn will train others. However, it is yet to be integrated into the national education policy, she said.

The country is also considering introducing multiple languages in its schools, especially in the border areas that continue to receive refugee students who speak different languages.

“We are an English-speaking country, but our neighbours speak French. A lot of migrants and refugees are Arabic speaking. So, we need a multi-lingual education environment.

“Also, if people are not able to understand the language of the terrorists or conflicts, they are also unlikely to deal with them. So, while we need a lot of sensitisation of people living at the conflict areas on peace education, we also must help them understand the situation and reject the terror ideologies,” Omolara told IPS.

However, there are still areas where private investment could be of help. This includes rural electricity and support for the disabled.

“Our government is doing all it can, but there are areas where we need help. For example, lack of electricity in the conflict region is a huge challenge. Some people are buying generators, but it could help to have more  private investment,” she concluded.

The 3-day summit, organised by the Education Relief Foundation (ERF), will conclude on Jan. 29 with signing of a Universal Declaration on universal inclusive education by state leaders.

** This story contains an update including information on the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) alert about millions of children in the Sahel in need of emergency humanitarian assistance this year.

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By Martha Katsi
HARARE, Zimbabwe, Jan 27 2020 (IPS)

Steven Seremwe, who is 57 years old, was retrenched from his job as an administrator at Lake Shore Missions in 2012. He decided to focus on farming, and he started growing various crops—white maize, sugar beans, and sweet potatoes, among others—for consumption and sale.

“I have always loved agriculture but because of work pressures, I was not practicing. But when I got retrenched from work, I decided to follow my heart and started farming,” he said.

The problem was that every farming season, even with a bumper harvest, Seremwe`s income was falling short. Profits were never enough to feed and care for his wife and two children. He had to do odd jobs in the community to help make ends meet.

Seremwe lives in Zvimba District of Mashonaland West Province in Zimbabwe. According to a National Nutrition Survey conducted in 2010, Zvimba was among 27 districts in Zimbabwe that were identified as having a high prevalence of malnutrition.

The irony is that in Seremwe’s district, many types of crops and vegetables are grown, but most are grown for sale rather than for consumption.

In 2016, under the Zimbabwe Livelihoods and Food Security Programme (LFSP), HarvestPlus introduced biofortification in Zvimba district.

The programme, which is funded by the Government of the United Kingdom through the Department for International Development (DfID), aims to reduce poverty through increased agricultural productivity, increased incomes, and improved food and nutrition security for smallholder farmers.

To improve nutrition and health, the LFSP aims to increase the production and consumption of a wide variety of nutritious foods by target households, including biofortified crops.

Encouraged by staff from HarvestPlus and the Agricultural Technical and Extension Services (part of the Zimbabwe Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Water, Climate and Rural Resettlement), Seremwe joined in the LFSP, hoping that the new crops would help boost his family’s income and secure better and healthy living conditions.

After attending several biofortification trainings organized by the project, Seremwe applied the techniques that he had learned, such as mulching, weeding, and application of manure in his field.

During the 2017/18 agricultural season, 3,300 farming households in Zvimba district were supported with vitamin A orange maize and iron bean seeds and some agricultural inputs. Seed test packs were given to farmers. Seremwe received a two-kilogram pack containing both iron bean and vitamin A orange maize seeds.

After cultivating these crops for the first time, Seremwe saw their potential and was motivated to expand output. During the 2018/19 farming season, he purchased 10 kilograms (kgs) of vitamin A orange maize seed, which yielded 1 ton of maize grain.

He kept 250 kgs of this for home consumption and sold 750 kgs to the Grain Marketing Board to earn ZWD2076.90 (roughly USD138). Seremwe also planted 2 kgs of iron beans and harvested about 60 kgs, of which he kept 40 kgs for home consumption.

Seremwe has also become an ambassador of biofortification—to date, he has passed on 10 kgs of iron bean seed to other farmers to plant. “My family loves eating vitamin A orange maize, especially porridge, it is really tasty. The iron beans also are fast cooking. Above all, as a family we appreciate the health benefits we are getting from eating these biofortified crops. As you can see, we all look very healthy!” Seremwe said.

Seremwe`s fields now yield produce that brings greater prosperity and opportunity to his family. “Vitamin A orange maize and iron beans are an excellent add to our crops that we grow here. Now we have crops loved by many for sale. This contributes significantly to improving the living conditions of my family and education for my children,” he added.

In the current 2019/20 agricultural season, Seremwe—as a farmer who was taught by the project on preparedness—has already bought his farming inputs, including vitamin A orange maize seed, iron beans, and some fertilizers. He has already done his land preparation and is only waiting for the rains to come.

Seremwe is one of roughly 250 000 farmers who have benefitted from the UK-funded LFSP project to end micronutrient deficiencies in the country. The project also supports farmers with market linkages.

Through the program’s interventions, a cumulative 259 metric tons (MT) of vitamin A maize seed and 400 MT of iron bean seed have been distributed in the country through a combination of direct distribution and market-led inventions.

By 2020, it is expected that 400,000 smallholder farmers will be growing and consuming biofortified crops in the country. Based on the success of biofortification in the country, the government of Zimbabwe has included biofortification in the National Agriculture Policy Framework 2019- 2030.

One of the pillars under the framework will be driving food and nutrition security and resilience.

*HarvestPlus is developing and promoting new, more nutritious varieties of staple food crops with higher amounts of vitamin A, iron or zinc—three of the micronutrients identified by the World Health Organization as most lacking in diets globally. The process is known as biofortification—and regular consumption of these innovative crops is improving nutrition and public health.

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Excerpt:

HarvestPlus*

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Judge Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf is pictured during the ruling at the International Court of Justice in the Hague, Netherlands on January 23, 2020. PHOTO: REUTERS/EVA PLEVIER

By Tasneem Tayeb
Jan 27 2020 (IPS-Partners)

(The Daily Star) – Two days after the Interna-tional Court of Justice (ICJ) approved emergency “provisional measures” asking Myanmar to stop persecution of the Rohingya in all forms— including killing, raping, and destroying homes and villages—two Rohingya women died in Rakhine State when the Myanmar army shelled a village. One of them was pregnant.

While many celebrated the ICJ’s order of provisional measures, some—especially those who have witnessed the ineffectiveness of the ICJ’s repeated “provisional measures” to protect Bosnian Muslims in 1993—had been cynical about the ultimate outcome of such a measure. Their scepticism is yet to be proven wrong.

Despite the ICJ’s order, Myanmar—it seems—remains defiant with its genocidal intent against the Rohingya. And Myanmar has good reason for its intransigence.

First of all, while the ICJ’s order is binding, it is not enforceable; and in the face of Myanmar’s non-compliance, The Gambia (the country that brought the case against Myanmar at the ICJ) at best can approach the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for it to decide whether it will use its powers to force Myanmar to comply with the ICJ’s order. And here lies the advantage of Myanmar.

China and Russia—two of Myanmar’s major allies—are two of the five permanent members of the UNSC, which also includes the United States, France and the United Kingdom. Both these countries have in the past resisted the United Nations’ attempts to address the Rohingya issue. To refresh the memory: in March 2017, China and Russia blocked a UN Security Council statement that would have “noted with concern renewed fighting in some parts of the country and stressed the importance of humanitarian access to all effected areas”, as reported by news agency Reuters.

With deep economic and military ties with China and Russia, it is no wonder that Myanmar is safe and strong in the knowledge that the UNSC will not be able to induce it to comply with the ICJ’s verdict in the months and years to come.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Myanmar earlier this month and the signing of 33 memorandums of understanding (MOUs), agreements, exchange letters and protocols send a strong signal to Bangladesh and to the wider world about its strategic ties with the country. According to Myanmar’s Directorate of Investment and Company Administration data, in 2019 China was the second biggest foreign investor in Myanmar, accounting for 25.21 percent of investment in the country; Singapore was the biggest, making up 26.86 percent of the foreign direct investment Myanmar received in the same year.

On the occasion of Xi’s visit, a joint statement in Chinese state media said that China “firmly supports Myanmar’s efforts to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests and national dignity in the international arena” and hopes for it to advance “peace, stability and development in Rakhine State.” Even if one does not read too much into these two lines, it would be difficult to misread China’s stance on the Rohingya issue.

During the visit, China and Myanmar also signed an agreement for the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ) deep seaport project, a major town in the volatile Rakhine State that is at the centre of the Rohingya genocide.

China is not the only actor investing in Rakhine. The World Bank in 2019 came under heavy fire from international human rights bodies and non-government organisations (NGO) for its proposed USD 100 million development project in the conflict-riven Rakhine State titled, “Rakhine Recovery and Development Support Project”.

In a letter to the World Bank dated April 9, 2019, obtained by Reuters, more than a dozen Myanmar-based NGOs said, “It is difficult to imagine how meaningful recovery and development are possible in Rakhine without addressing the underlying human rights issues that currently impact every aspect of life for communities.” Despite World Bank’s assurance that, “The project is being carefully prepared so that it does not reinforce or perpetuate movement restrictions or other forms of segregation, and that it creates new openings for social cohesion and positive exchanges between communities,” how it is going to make sure of this remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military ties with Russia have only strengthened over the years. In January 2018, Russia agreed to sell six Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets to Myanmar costing at least USD 204 million. The deal was announced during the official visit of Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu to Myanmar in January 2018.

As late as August 2019, Myanmar military chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing paid a visit to Russia and during his stay, he visited the Irkutsk Aviation Plant Corporation that is assembling the six Sukhoi Su-30SM multi-role advanced fighter jets for Myanmar. Photos of him sitting in a cockpit next to a test pilot made quite a show of his trip to the plant.

Of course, warplanes are not enough; military personnel require training as well. Here too Russia comes to their aid –more than 600 members of the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military) were studying at higher military educational institutions in Russia in January 2018, as suggested by Russia’s Deputy Defence Minister Lieutenant-General Alexander Fomin.

Apart from these economic transactions, around 60 foreign companies from around the world have ties with businesses controlled by the Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited and the Myanmar Economic Corporation—two military-governed businesses in Myanmar. It is these two conglomerates that dominate the economic and commercial landscape of the country. To address this, the UN fact-finding mission in 2019 urged imposing targeted financial sanctions on companies linked with Myanmar’s military and suggested that foreign companies doing business with Tatmadaw-controlled corporations could be complicit in international crimes.

During the Rakhine State Investment Fair in 2019, Suu Kyi said, “Myanmar has opened up its economy to the world. We have been constantly adjusting our policies, rules and regulations to be in line with international best practices and to make the investment climate more favourable, predictable, facilitative and friendly. We want to establish a welcoming economic environment for all.” Unfortunately, it seems the welcoming environment is not inclusive of the Rohingya.

Given the scenario, it is not surprising that the world, including international bodies like the UN, has miserably failed to address, let alone stop, the genocide unleashed by Myanmar against the helpless Rohingya. Thousands of adults and children have been killed; millions forced to flee; and an unaccountable number of women and girls have been systemically sexually violated, impregnated and exposed to various sexually transmitted diseases by the Myanmar military. And the world watched the spectre unfold before their very eyes like an audience at a macabre movie screening.

While the world is busy exploring potential economic tie-ups with Myanmar, thanks to its vast untapped resources and strategic geopolitical importance, it is the Rohingya and Bangladesh that are bearing the brunt of Myanmar’s economic possibilities. While the ICJ’s verdict is a welcome move, without political will to hold Myanmar to account it will not yield any positive outcome for the Rohingya. Expecting much from it would be a folly. The 1995 Srebrenica massacre should serve as a reality check.

Tasneem Tayeb is a columnist for The Daily Star.

Her Twitter handle is: @TayebTasneem

This story was originally published by The Daily Star, Bangladesh

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By Simi Mehta
NEW DELHI, Jan 27 2020 (IPS)

The unease in the relations between the US and Iran have been in the international news for around a month now. Both sides have not shied away from using outright methods of warfare like the use of ballistic missiles and assassinations, along with attempts at economic and diplomatic sanctions.

There have been voices that have mentioned a possibility of a full-blown war in the Middle-East accentuated by US-Iran tensions. Given this background, this article attempts to connect the dots of the prevailing wariness with the historical antagonism between the two countries. It also reflects on the possible implications this might have on India.

Background
It all began in August 1953, when by the covert actions of the Secret Information Service (SIS) of the United Kingdom (UK) and the Central Investigation Agency (CIA) of the United States (US) connived a military coup- Operation Ajax, to topple the then Iran’s elected Prime Minister (PM) Mohammed Mossadegh, an ardent nationalist- who had plans to nationalize Iran’s oil industry and turn oil profits into investments for the Iranian people. The reasons for this coup d’état was that the US feared disruption in the global oil supply and worried about Iran joining the Soviet sphere of influence and the UK feared the loss of cheap Iranian oil.

In January 1963, the last Shah of Iran-Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlevi- who had close ties with the West, introduced the ‘White Revolution’ and was the harbinger of a series of reforms- for example: allowing women to vote, urban and rural modernization, reduction of religious estates in the name of land redistribution and free and compulsory education among others.

Iran’s Islamic fundamentalists, Shi’ite clergy and the landlords led by Ayatollah Khomeini, were enraged with Shah’s initiatives based on liberal ideals of western thought. They were successful in toppling the latter’s rule in 1979 after years of protests and bloodshed. This came to be known as the Iranian Revolution.

The Iranian revolutionaries took to hostage 52 staff of the US embassy in Tehran for 444 days, following which the US severed all diplomatic relations with Iran, banned American exports to the country and expelled Iranian diplomats. Iran was added to the list of state sponsors of terrorism after an attack by the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Beirut in 1983 that killed 241 US Marines in Beirut.

On July 3, 1988, the American cruiser USS Vincennes fired a surface-to-air missile and shot down an Iran Air Flight 655- a passenger flight scheduled from Tehran to Dubai, over the Persian Gulf and killed all 290 aboard. The cruiser commander displayed an ‘error in identification’ and termed the commercial aircraft as a fighter aircraft.

The 9/11 attacks on the US soil led the then George W. Bush administration to designate Iran as part of the “Axis of Evil” for supporting terrorism and pursuing weapons of mass destruction. This was fueled by a 2002 controversy that erupted over Iran’s clandestine nuclear program, when the National Council of Resistance on Iran (NCRI), an Iranian exile group, revealed information that Iran had built nuclear-related facilities at Natanz and Arak that it had not revealed to the IAEA. The US government then began pushing for UN sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program.

Obama’s election as the US President saw a rise of optimism from the Ahmadinejad’s government for developing understanding with the US. This continued with the election of Hassan Rouhani as the Iranian President in 2013.

Obama-Rouhani administrations witnessed attempts at rapprochements between the US and Iran. The historic Iran nuclear deal between P5+1 (US, China, France, Russia and UK + Germany) and Iran was signed and was known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which freed over 100 billion dollars in frozen assets overseas for Iran and increased foreign access to the Iranian economy.

It severely limited Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium and mandated that international inspectors monitor and enforce Iran’s compliance with the agreement. In return, Iran was granted relief from international and US economic sanctions.

Trump and Escalation of Tensions with Iran

Though the inspectors regularly certified that Iran was abiding by the agreement’s terms, in May 2018 President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the agreement and by November all the sanctions against Iran were reinstated. Iran’s economy began to be strangled to pressure it from stopping the ballistic missiles program and to force it to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

Incidentally, this move by the US was regretted by the EU, UK, France, China and Germany. Iran rejected US’ unilateral decision and vowed to defy the sanctions against it. Trump continued with his sanctions-strategy and imposed them on Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and other top officials of Iran including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC) of Iran. IGRC was designated as a terrorist organization.

Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah attacked an air base in Iraq on December 27, 2019 where American and Iraqi forces were stationed. It killed a US civilian contractor and wounded several US and Iraqi service members. Airstrikes against the Kataib Hezbollah fighters in Iraq and Syria were ordered within two days.

Revenge and retaliation did not stop as the Iranian-backed militia groups chanting ‘death to America’ stormed the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 31, 2019, and burnt and defaced property.

On January 3, 2020, Iran received a massive jolt of the new decade when on the orders of President Trump, an American drone fired a missile that killed Major General Qassem Soleimani, leader of Iran’s elite Quds Force, as he prepared to leave the Baghdad airport. Soleimani was considered to be second most powerful man in Iran after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

The situation became further heated up when Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two Iraqi bases housing American military personnel. While no casualties were reported, Trump announced new harsher economic sanctions on Tehran1 .

As Iran entered a heightened state of alert, preparing for a possible US retaliation, out of “human error”, it accidentally shot down a commercial Ukrainian airliner departing Tehran for Kyiv, killing all 176 people aboard. With the Iranian forces demonstrating “highest level of readiness” at the time, the aircraft was mistaken for a “hostile target”.

Implications for India

India has a veteran diplomat S. Jaishankar as its Minister of External Affairs, and hence the position taken by India amid the US-Iran tussle is likely to avoid taking sides, either of the US or of Iran, in favour or against, since, it shares exceptionally good relations with both. India would continue to expand its economic and cultural ties with Iran and its Global Strategic Partnership with the US.

The US has understood the significance of Iran-India relations, imminent from the waivers provided to India in the recently legislated Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), allowing it to continue importing Iranian oil. Further, Iran’s strategic location provides the route through which India, blockaded by Pakistan, can fulfill its Eurasian ambitions.

The balanced, mature and status-quoist approach of India towards Iran was echoed by the Iranian Deputy Minister for Culture and Guidance of Iran Mohsin Jawadi, when he remarked that India-Iran relations were independent of the ongoing crisis Iran was facing back home. Javad Zarif acknowledged India as a dear friend, which also has good relations with the US. He exhorted the Indian leadership to encourage the US to come back to the negotiating table on the nuclear deal. The Chabahar project provides a route to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Because India and Iran are ‘complementary economies’, Iran has highlighted the need to ‘remove the dollar’ from their bilateral trade and instead concentrate on a ‘rupee-rial’ mechanism, which could ease the difficulties faced by them in bilateral trade due to financial sanctions posed on Iran by the US.

Jaishankar seems to have handled the US-Iran standoff over the last one year quite professionally, and accorded Prime Minister Narendra Modi the diplomatic agility to make calculated and successful visits to oil-rich kingdoms of United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. In fact, Iran has been responsive in negotiating with these countries without any preconditions, and that it ‘would welcome India’s positive role’.

Analysis:

The US has been seeking to contain Iran’s nuclear program, had in the first place, itself helped create in 1957 under the Atoms for Peace Program. It provided Iran its first nuclear reactor and nuclear fuel, and after 1967 by providing Iran with weapons grade enriched uranium and continued it until the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

The downing of the Ukrainian airliner has an eerie similarity with the downing of the Iran Air in 1988 by the US. The reasons cited for both incidents were ‘human error’, and ‘miscalculation’. The fact that Iran used the 1988 incident as an instance for a revenge cannot be overruled.

Further, the US may advise Ukraine to file a case for compensation with the ICJ soon, alike the Iranian claims in 1989. While an all-out war between the US and Iran has been averted as of now, the crisis has important consequences for longer-term regional stability.

1 Blake, A. 2020. Transcript of Trump’s Iran speech, annotated, The Washington Post, January 8, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/08/transcript-trumps-iran-speech/

*Simi Mehta also serves as the CEO and Editorial Director of Impact and Policy Research Institute (IMPRI), New Delhi., and can be reached at simi@impriindia.org.

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Excerpt:

Simi Mehta holds a PhD in American Studies from School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. She was a Fulbright Fellow at the Ohio State University

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